New Poll Shows Trump Leading Over Biden in Potential 2024 Matchup with Diverging Presidency Views

According to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, Donald Trump maintains an advantage over President Joe Biden as the campaign progresses. As the former president's criminal trial unfolds, opinions regarding the first term of each candidate seeking a second four years in the White House now seem to be leaning in Trump's favor. The majority of Americans believe that Trump's presidency was a success, while a significant number view Biden's term as a failure.

In the poll, Trump's support among registered voters remains at 49% in a direct matchup against Biden. This percentage is consistent with CNN's previous national poll on the race conducted in January. On the other hand, Biden's support currently stands at 43%, which is not significantly different from the 45% recorded in January.

Looking back, 55% of all Americans now view Trump's presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.

Assessing Biden's time in office so far, 61% believe his presidency has been a failure, while 39% think it's been a success. This is slightly worse than the 57% who deemed the first year of his administration a failure in January 2022, with 41% considering it a success.

A customer shops at a grocery store on February 13, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

A customer shops at a grocery store on February 13, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

Related article

Are you considering how the economy will impact your vote in November? We want to hear your story.

Republicans are currently more united in believing that Trump's presidency was a success compared to Democrats' view of Biden's presidency. Specifically, 92% of Republicans view Trump's time in office as successful, while only 73% of Democrats feel the same about Biden. Among independents, 51% see Trump's presidency as successful, while only 37% think the same about Biden's presidency.

Views on the achievements of the two most recent presidents show some overlap. 14% of Americans believe both are failures, while 8% think both are successes. On the other hand, 47% of registered voters see Biden's presidency as a failure but consider Trump's a success. Only 30% view Biden's presidency as successful while believing Trump's was not. It is worth noting that public opinion of former presidents tends to improve over time, although no other modern president has tried to return to power after losing an election.

Negative opinions about Biden's performance as president have been consistent throughout his time in office. In a recent poll, 60% disapprove of his job performance while 40% approve. These numbers have remained relatively stable in CNN polling for over a year. Even on issues where Biden receives the most approval, such as health care policy (45% approval) and student loan debt (44% approval), the ratings are still in the negative. His handling of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza receives the lowest approval rating, with only 28% approval and 71% disapproval. Notably, those under 35 show an 81% disapproval rate, and a majority of Democrats also disapprove (53%).

Biden’s approval ratings for the economy and inflation are low, with only 34% and 29% respectively. Voters are more concerned about economic issues when choosing a candidate compared to previous presidential elections. In a recent poll, 65% of registered voters consider the economy extremely important when deciding on a president, a significant increase from 40% in early 2020 and 46% in 2016. Among those who prioritize the economy, Trump leads Biden by a large margin of 62% to 30%.

A majority of Americans, 70%, believe that economic conditions in the US are poor. Many of those who share this sentiment, especially Republicans, think that a change in political leadership would have a greater impact on their perception of the economy than an actual improvement in the economy itself. Among this group, 41% believe that a shift in political leadership in Washington would be more influential in changing their views compared to a decrease in inflation, an improvement in their personal finances, or a sustained increase in the stock market. Specifically, 61% of Republicans who think the economy is in bad shape believe that a change in leadership would alter their perspective, while only 13% of Democrats feel the same way.

Following politics, a significant portion of those who believe the economy is in poor condition, 37%, say that a decrease in the rate of inflation could lead to a change in their opinion. In contrast, a much smaller number of individuals point to a positive change in their personal finances (14%) or an increase in the stock market (3%) as factors that could sway their view of the economy.

Americans continue to have negative perceptions of their own finances, with 53% expressing dissatisfaction and only 47% feeling satisfied. This dissatisfaction is particularly prevalent among those with lower incomes (67% dissatisfied in households earning less than $50,000 annually), people of color (64% dissatisfied), and younger Americans (61% dissatisfied among those under 45 years old).

There are also other issues to consider.

In the upcoming election, 58% of voters consider protecting democracy as an extremely important issue. This is the only other issue, besides democracy, that a majority of voters see as central to their decision. Nearly half of voters also view immigration, crime, and gun policy as deeply important (48% each), with health care (43%), abortion (42%), and nominations to the US Supreme Court (39%) also being deeply important to about 4 in 10 voters. On the other hand, only 33% of voters find foreign policy that important, while climate change, the war between Israel and Hamas, and student loans rank even lower in importance at 27%, 26%, and 24% respectively.

When it comes to issue priorities, there are clear differences between Democratic-aligned and GOP-aligned voters. For Democratic-aligned voters, protecting democracy (67%), abortion (54%), the economy (52%), gun policy (51%), and health care (49%) are all seen as key issues by about half or more of the voters. On the other hand, GOP-aligned voters prioritize the economy (79%), immigration (71%), crime (65%), and then democracy (54%) in their decision-making process.

Candidates' Impressions

Most voters have a negative view of both candidates, with 58% having an unfavorable opinion of Biden and 55% of Trump. Additionally, a slight majority of voters, 53%, express dissatisfaction with the choices they have in this year's presidential election.

A significant 17% of registered voters have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. When forced to choose between the two, 43% would vote for Trump, compared to 31% for Biden. Additionally, 25% of this group either prefer another candidate, would skip the election, or are unsure about their support.

In a scenario where independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, along with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are included, Trump leads with 42% to Biden's 33%. Kennedy receives 16%, West 4%, and Stein 3%. Interestingly, Kennedy garners support from 13% of both Biden and Trump supporters in the initial two-way match-up.

In the match between Biden and Trump, a recent poll shows that Biden is not doing as well as in previous CNN polls among the youngest voters. He is trailing Trump by a margin of 51% to 40% among voters under 35 years old. The main reason for Biden's deficit in this group is voters who did not participate in the 2020 election. Excluding this group, voters aged 18 to 34 in the poll are split with 46% for Biden and 47% for Trump. While not all polls provide detailed breakdowns or use the same age categories, recent polling has shown a wide range of results for younger voters in a Trump-Biden matchup.

In terms of voters overall, Biden still lags behind Trump slightly in the percentage of voters who have completely ruled out supporting him. 52% of voters say there is no chance they would support Biden, while 47% say the same for Trump. These figures are similar to those found in a CNN survey from the fall. A small percentage of registered voters, 5% for Biden and 3% for Trump, say that although they are not currently supporting the candidate, they would consider voting for them.

The poll reveals a lack of understanding between Biden supporters and Trump supporters. 66% of those not supporting Biden and 63% of those not backing Trump admit they don't understand why people would support the respective candidate.

The CNN poll, conducted by SSRS from April 18-23, surveyed 1,212 adults, including 967 registered voters. The interviews were done either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 3.8 points for registered voters.

CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu contributed to this story.

Editor's P/S:

The CNN poll has revealed significant shifts in the public's perception of former President Trump and current President Biden. Trump maintains a narrow lead over Biden, with 49% of registered voters supporting him, compared to Biden's 43%. This trend is particularly concerning for Biden, as his approval ratings have consistently remained low throughout his presidency, with 60% of Americans disapproving of his job performance.

The poll also highlights growing dissatisfaction with the economy, with a majority of Americans perceiving it as poor and believing that a change in political leadership would impact their economic outlook more than actual economic improvements. This sentiment is particularly strong among Republicans, with 61% believing that a shift in leadership would positively change their economic views.