In 2023, Myanmar has surpassed Afghanistan as the leading producer of opium in the world, with an estimated 1,080 metric tons produced, according to a recent report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). This marked the highest production since 2001, following the Taliban's ban on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan.
The Taliban's strict prohibition on poppy cultivation, implemented in Afghanistan in April, led to a 95% decrease in opium production in the country. With Afghanistan historically being a major player in illegal opium production, the UN has warned that a continued ban on the trade could lead to global shortages of opiates, potentially leading to increased production in Southeast Asia.
The Golden Triangle, located where the borders of Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar intersect, has historically been a significant center for drug trafficking, known for its lack of law and control by local militias and warlords.
In 2023, opium production in Myanmar saw a 36% increase compared to the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of growth. According to a report, the opium economy in Myanmar is now valued at $1 billion to $2.5 billion, accounting for 2% to 4% of the country's GDP.
Myanmar has long been a significant producer of drugs, particularly during periods of military rule. However, the country's opium production has seen a notable increase due to the current dire economic conditions and instability following the violent 2021 coup, which brought an end to a short-lived period of democracy.
The country is in the midst of a worsening and deadly civil war, with UN reports indicating that fighting between junta troops and various armed resistance forces has extended to more than two-thirds of the country. The report also suggests that factors such as soaring inflation, limited access to markets and state infrastructure, and a lack of alternative income opportunities have contributed to farmers choosing to cultivate more poppy in late 2022.
Jeremy Douglas, UNODC Regional Representative, stated that the military takeover of February 2021 has led to economic, security, and governance disruptions, pushing farmers in remote areas to turn to opium cultivation as a means of livelihood. He also noted that the escalation of conflict in Shan and other border areas is likely to further fuel this trend, particularly in Myanmar's major drug-producing states that share borders with Laos, Thailand, and China.
A more sophisticated operation
The cultivation of poppy in Southeast Asia has traditionally been focused on small-scale, traditional plots primarily for commercial purposes. However, a report by the UNODC indicates that poppy production in Myanmar has evolved into a more advanced and efficient process, leading to increased productivity.
On March 9, 2023, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) members, an ethnic rebel group, were photographed patrolling near Namhsan Township in Myanmar's northern Shan State. The image was captured by AFP and is credited to STR/AFP via Getty Images.
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The report stated that the recent practice of sowing poppy in densely organized plots, coupled with the use of irrigation systems and sometimes fertilizers, has led to a significant increase in plot yields and total production estimates, reaching historic levels.
The vast and hilly Shan state in northwestern Myanmar has long been the center of the country's drug trade, benefitting from ideal conditions and climate for growing poppy, as well as a lack of law enforcement. According to the UNODC, opium production in Shan increased by 20% this year.
Various ethnic armed organizations and militia groups have established control over a complex network of territory within the state, utilizing narcotics and other illegal activities as a means to fund their operations. In late October, the conflict in Shan state intensified as three armed ethnic militias collaborated with resistance forces to launch a significant new offensive against the ruling junta.
Synthetic drugs also surging
Opium cultivation has also risen in Chin state to the east, Kachin state to the north, and in Sagaing, along Myanmars border with India, according to the UNODC - regions that have experienced heightened conflict since the coup.
The increase in opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar coincides with a sharp rise in the production of synthetic drugs, including methamphetamines.
Recently, influential ethnic militias and large transnational criminal organizations have joined forces to manufacture and distribute synthetic drugs on an "unprecedented scale" in Shan state, according to UNODC's Douglas.
Asias narcotics syndicates rake in billions of dollars from the worldwide drug trade, yet receive only a fraction of the scrutiny given to their Latin American counterparts. This is partly because they maintain a lower profile and are less inclined to engage in violent internal conflicts.
Thai police unveiled packages of crystal methamphetamine at a press conference in Bangkok on January 24, 2023. In less than a week, they seized over a ton of the illegal substance, some of which was concealed in tea and coffee bags.
The UN report warns that Asias drug cartels are flourishing in the absence of Covid restrictions. Taking advantage of the political instability and conflict in Myanmar, transnational crime and militia groups have established a billion-dollar industry involving drug production and trafficking, money laundering, illegal casinos, and online scams.
The UNODC has reported a thriving drug industry in Asia, with crime groups creating new trafficking routes to avoid enforcement efforts and methamphetamine prices reaching new lows. Additionally, recent large seizures of methamphetamine in Laos indicate that the country is being increasingly used as a transit point.
The trafficking activity in Bokeo province has become more connected to markets in Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and other Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, it was noted that the region's crime and governance challenges are further complicated by the crisis in Myanmar. The need for Southeast Asian countries to collaborate in addressing both longstanding and new threats was emphasized by Douglas.