Manchin's retirement could prove to be his most deceptive move yet
Joe Manchin's retirement sparks intense speculation, raising questions about his political legacy Explore his rise to power and the potential impact of his departure on Washington's political landscape
Joe Manchin is returning to his rightful place of origin, leaving many questioning his true intentions due to his shrewd ability to amass influence.
Manchin's departure will ease one concern for Democrats who were frustrated by his obstruction and dismantling of broad progressive policies, such as those related to climate change. However, it will present new challenges for his party. Firstly, it may weaken the Democrats' already precarious grip on the Senate. Secondly, the announcement has sparked immediate speculation about Manchin's potential consideration of a third-party presidential campaign.
Manchin's decision to leave Washington is based on the fact that West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, a potential Republican challenger, is ahead in both primary and general election polls. If the GOP wins this seat, it will signify a complete political shift in the Mountain States, which were once strongly Democratic but are now strongly Republican. This shift may also contribute to the decline of conservative rural-state Democrats, who were once thriving. Manchin's decision likely stems from the belief that he won't be able to win re-election. If he can't win in the strongly pro-MAGA state of West Virginia, it's highly unlikely that any other Democrat can.
Despite the disdain from liberals, Manchin's victory with a margin of fewer than 20,000 votes in 2018, occurred in a state where President Donald Trump triumphed in every county, with a near-40-point lead two years later. This victory played a crucial role in contributing to the Democrats' narrow recent Senate majorities. However, with Manchin's departure after the 2024 election, the Democrats' current 51-49 Senate majority appears even more uncertain. To sustain their hold on power, the party already faces the challenge of defending vulnerable seats in red states like Montana and Ohio.
Third-party speculation erupts
Additionally, Manchin's actions have been causing further turmoil within a White House that he has historically had a strained relationship with. In 2021, he claimed that White House staff made "inexcusable" remarks during his involvement in the failure of a significant climate and social policy legislation.
Manchin announced on Thursday that he would travel across the country and speak out to determine if there is interest in creating a movement to unite and mobilize the middle. He is known for carefully choosing his words and was aware that this statement would generate speculation about a potential third-party presidential bid, especially since he is affiliated with the No Labels group, which is contemplating endorsing an independent candidacy. Similar to his approach in the Senate, Manchin seemed to purposely create ambiguity and intrigue, aiming to regain the center of attention and enhance his distinctive style of political influence.
President Joe Biden, facing an uphill battle for reelection, could face dire consequences if a third-party ticket, potentially led by former President Trump, manages to siphon off even a small percentage of votes in pivotal swing states. This became evident when Democrat Senator Manchin surprised his party by attending the launch of a "common sense" platform organized by No Labels in July. The platform encompassed crucial issues such as immigration, healthcare, gun control, and the economy. Anticipation built as he refused to rule out the possibility of an independent presidential ticket that could seriously damage Biden's chances against Trump.
Even before Senator Manchin's announcement on Thursday, the likelihood of a tumultuous election that could disrupt the dynamics of the two major political parties was increasing. Last month, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. abandoned his pursuit of the Democratic nomination and instead launched his own independent campaign for president. Former Harvard professor Cornel West has also declared his independent candidacy. Adding to the mix, Jill Stein, whom many Democrats hold responsible for splitting votes from Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election and clearing the path for Trump, has announced her intention to pursue the Green Party nomination.
Detractors of third-party presidential campaigns often criticize them as mere vanity projects, undertaken by candidates who have no realistic chance of winning but are able to divert enough votes in key battlegrounds to significantly impact the outcome of the presidential race.
In a year marked by polls revealing voters' strong dissatisfaction with both Trump and Biden, the allure for third-party candidates is particularly strong. Scott Jennings, a CNN political commentator, expressed concerns about the potential problems Biden and Trump could face if multiple independents were able to overcome ballot access obstacles. With Americans reluctant to witness another rematch, they may be actively seeking alternative options beyond the two major parties.
Left-leaning political analysts express concern that third-party candidates are more likely to attract votes away from Biden rather than Trump. Of particular worry is the hypothetical scenario of Joe Manchin entering the race. David Axelrod, a former top aide to President Barack Obama and current CNN senior political commentator, underscores Manchin's lifelong affiliation as a Democrat. Axelrod emphasizes that Manchin's candidacy could pose significant challenges for the president, as third-party contenders have the potential to reduce the number of votes required for Trump to secure the presidency.
How Manchin became the most powerful man in Washington
There is no denying that Manchin, a former state legislator and West Virginia governor, is exasperated with the acrimonious nature of polarized contemporary politics and the erosion of bipartisan efforts to find common ground in the diminishing American political center. "Every incentive in Washington is structured to fuel the extremism in our politics," he stated on Thursday. "The widening gulf between Democrats and Republicans is paralyzing Congress and exacerbating our country's issues. The majority of Americans are simply exhausted."
Manchin desires the attention that running on a third-party ticket would generate for his attempt to rescue the country from its corrupt political climate. However, with years of solitude as a Democrat opposing the Republican wave in his home state and a distinguished career in statewide and national leadership, would Manchin truly jeopardize his political legacy by enabling Trump's return to the Oval Office?
Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, a Democrat, dismisses this notion. In an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Thursday, he confidently stated, "I cannot fathom a scenario in which Joe Manchin would take any action to assist Donald Trump in winning the election."
Manchin, who often idealizes his hometown of Farmington, attributes his political approach to his strong relationships with West Virginians from all political backgrounds. This approach has led him to break with Democrats and oppose progressive legislation, often in favor of supporting the struggling carbon industries in his state. It is difficult to find a Senator who is more protective of his constituents, more aware of the challenges faced by Appalachia due to deindustrialization and opioid abuse, or more committed to the traditional practice of directing federal funds back to his state. This dedication was passed down to Manchin by his mentor, Robert Byrd, whose seat he took over in 2010 after Byrd's death.
"He had a good understanding of his constituency, even though he may have alienated some left-leaning individuals, who make up a smaller portion of the population here," said John Kilwein, the associate professor and chair of the department of political science at West Virginia University. "But he knew what he was doing, he appeared on national shows... and positioned himself as a practical and conservative Democrat, which resonated well with his constituents."
In the Senate, Manchin championed civility and cooperation, which appeared outdated even before the rise of Republican senators who prioritize obstructing governance over legislating due to the influence of Trump.
Surprisingly, despite hindering parts of Biden's domestic agenda, Manchin's fondness for traditional ways aligns with the president's perspective on how Washington should operate. Manchin's power reached its peak during the first two years of Biden's term when Democrats held a 50-50 Senate majority, granting Manchin the ability to effectively veto the president's bills. His reluctance to support ambitious progressive goals resulted in the scaling back of crucial elements in Biden's agenda, such as those related to climate change. Additionally, his refusal to consider abolishing the Senate filibuster to pass a significant voting-rights reform bill made him an outcast among left-wing Democrats.
As Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, both moderate lawmakers, engaged in negotiations with the White House and progressive Democrats amid intense pressure, hordes of reporters would trail Manchin as he moved through the Capitol, eagerly listening to his every word. The reports about his meetings with fellow lawmakers on his houseboat in Washington only added to the intrigue. At one point, a group of kayaking protesters surrounded Manchin's vessel, called "Almost Heaven" after a line from John Denver's famous song, which pays homage to his beloved home state. Leaning over the stern in his dress shirt, Manchin elaborated on his decision to not support the president's budget reconciliation bill, which included provisions for social and climate spending.
Ultimately, Manchin threw his support behind the Inflation Reduction Act, a more modest bill in which he had played a role in crafting. He also supported Biden's bipartisan infrastructure law, which might have fallen short of the original Democratic objectives but will have a lasting impact on the US economy and environment, defining the president's legacy for years to come.
A lost world
The departure of Manchin from the Senate after the upcoming election will further highlight a pattern in which rural states have increasingly aligned themselves with the Republican Party. Under the influence of the Trump era, the party has shown a greater appeal to blue-collar workers. As a result, Democrats have now shifted their focus to the urban centers and suburbs where they have established their power bases.
Once a stronghold for the Democratic Party, West Virginia has undergone significant political changes over the years. In 1960, the state played a pivotal role in helping John Kennedy secure a primary victory, thereby removing concerns about religious bias against Catholics in his presidential campaign. However, the last Democratic candidate to win West Virginia in a presidential election was President Bill Clinton in 1996. Nowadays, Democratic nominees no longer visit the state, contrasting with the bitter campaign rivalry between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama that occurred there in 2008.
Looking towards the future, it is highly likely that Republicans will secure West Virginia's four electoral votes in the 2024 election. Additionally, the state seems certain to send a Republican senator to Washington as a replacement for Manchin. Political analyst Kilwein believes that this shift towards the right reflects the end of an era in West Virginia.
