Love Is in the Air: Brace Yourself for an Epic Surge in Wedding Proposals After 2023

Anticipate an increase in engagements in 2024, as the decline caused by the pandemic is set to reverse, resulting in a surge of celebrations with Champagne corks popping.

As per Signet Jewelers, the leading jewelry company in the United States, the sales of engagement rings were negatively impacted by the pandemic, as relationships faced challenges, and some never even began due to restrictions that confined people to their homes and limited social interactions to immediate family members.

The delay in proposals caused by this trend has resulted in an "engagement gap" of approximately 3.25 years between the start of dating and couples getting engaged, according to Signet's exclusive data. However, as pre-pandemic lifestyles, including dating, continue to resume, Signet (the company behind Zales, Jared, Kay Jewelers, Blue Nile, and Diamonds Direct) predicts that the decline in proposals will reach its lowest point in the present year and that engagements will likely increase again from early 2024.

"There has been a temporary disruption in dating due to Covid," stated Signet CEO Virginia Drosos during a company presentation at the Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference on Wednesday. According to Drosos, approximately 2.8 million couples typically get engaged each year in the United States, but last year saw a decrease to 2.5 million. However, she anticipates this number to further decline and stabilize at around 2.1 to 2.2 million in 2023, before gradually increasing and fully recovering within the next three years.

In 2024, Signet expects engagements will reach 2.4 to 2.5 million. That rebound is crucial to Signet since bridal jewelry accounts for 50% of its overall merchandise sales.

An aquamarine and diamond engagement ring in white gold from Kay Jewelers Neil Lane, priced at $3,399.99.

Courtesy of Zales/KAY Jewelers

Signet is able to closely monitor the yearly engagement cycle thanks to its customer data platform, according to Drosos. She explained that their proprietary signals provide insights into how couples progress during the 3.25-year period from when they meet to when they get engaged. Currently, they have 14 million individuals in their dating funnel database, with around 2.1 million couples expected to get engaged this year. Moreover, they are continuously tracking a larger number of people in the dating funnel through 2024.

Drosos discussed Signet's ability to predict engagement trends in greater detail during the company's recent earnings call with analysts.

During last month's call, she explained, "We are confident in the recovery of engagements due to our reliance on 45 exclusive milestones that we monitor to gauge a couple's progress towards engagement. While not all couples go through all 45 milestones, we have found that once they reach between 25 and 30 of these milestones, their likelihood of progressing to engagement increases significantly from a statistical standpoint."

Drosos mentioned that the percentage of "early relationship triggers" has shown a 7% improvement year after year, specifically referring to occasions such as attending sports events or concerts together. During Signet's second quarter, which concluded on July 29, Drosos stated that the number of couples reaching 25 to 30 milestones increased by 700 basis points.

Furthermore, there has been a noticeable trend in the engagement levels of different states. States such as Texas and Florida, which opted for an earlier reopening during the pandemic, have observed a decrease of 10 points in their engagement levels in comparison to California and New York, which implemented their reopening strategies at a later stage in the pandemic.