Kyiv's Winter Tactics: Unveiling the City's Remarkable Adaptations

Ukraine is about to enter its second winter of war, where the impressive advancements made in Kharkiv and Kherson last year are now a distant memory.

Currently, the Ukrainian military is engaged in a grueling battle against a larger and determined Russian force along a front spanning nearly 1,000 kilometers. However, the Ukrainian military still suffers from a severe lack of air power, and the deteriorating weather will further impede offensive operations.

The Russians are expected to initiate another operation to severely damage Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing its population to endure a bleak winter. On the battleground, the Russians have made adjustments. The defense budget for the upcoming year will be 70% higher compared to the current year. They are committed for the long term.

However, the Ukrainians are also adjusting, despite a hesitant beginning to their counteroffensive.

Ukrainian soldiers' proficiency in mastering Western technology quickly gave rise to misguided optimism that the process of developing cohesive fighting units could be expedited. However, they have now reverted to a familiar style of warfare, employing small, mobile infantry groups to assess and challenge well-established Russian defensive positions. This approach is particularly suitable in light of the current circumstances, as numerous Russian drones easily detect any gathering of forces and subsequently coordinate devastating artillery attacks against them.

Small and agile is the solution.

During a comprehensive interview with CNN last week, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky emphasized that both the opposing forces and ourselves rely heavily on assault squads rather than companies, battalions, or brigades. These squads typically consist of 10-15 individuals.

Ukraine is unwilling to take the chance of losing soldiers in a large-scale mechanized attack, as safeguarding personnel remains the top priority for commanders at every level, according to Tarnavsky in an interview with CNN's Fred Pleitgen.

This type of warfare will be less impacted by the winter's mud and mist. "The weather can pose a serious obstacle during an advance. However, considering our preferred method of advancing without utilizing vehicles, I do not believe it will heavily influence this stage of the counteroffensive," Tarnavsky stated.

This particular style of warfare represents one extreme. Nonetheless, the Ukrainians are also capitalizing on Western provisions of long-range artillery in both the southern and eastern regions. Moreover, Kyiv has significantly escalated long-range missile and drone attacks on Russian military hubs such as command centers, fuel and ammunition depots, and transportation hubs.

Starve, stretch and strike

Admiral Tony Radakin, the Chief of the UK's Defense Staff, has referred to this strategy as "starve, stretch, and strike," although a significant portion of the striking is presently conducted from a considerable distance.

Crimea is consistently targeted with the intention of disrupting Russian supply routes and weakening the Black Sea Fleet. These attacks are expected to persist and intensify due to the increasingly difficult winter conditions. Recent high-profile operations, such as the ones carried out against the Sevastopol shipyard and the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet this month, not only boost morale but also serve as a reminder to Ukraine's allies that it remains proactive in the conflict.

A satellite image shows smoke billowing from a Russian Black Sea Navy headquarters in the Crimean city of Sevastopol on September 22.

The anticipated arrival of German long-range Taurus missiles and the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMs) will intensify Ukraine's efforts to target Russian infrastructure within Ukrainian territory.

According to the online military publication WarZone, if the ability to launch a 500-pound warhead with great strength over extensive distances is achieved, it would pose significant problems for vital Russian logistics nodes, infrastructure such as bridges, and heavily fortified command and control centers, all located far from the front lines.

In recent months, Ukrainian forces have concentrated their efforts on weakening Russian air defenses, causing the enemy to struggle with difficult decisions regarding what to protect. This has become more challenging as additional defenses have been deployed in the Moscow region due to a persistent and annoying (although not highly destructive) drone campaign.

The expected arrival of ATACMs with multiple warheads in Ukraine would enable the country to significantly increase the extent of damage inflicted on remote Russian targets, including air bases. Lt Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, expressed that countering Russian aviation with air defense systems is both costly and ineffective, emphasizing the importance of targeting air bases. However, eliminating these threats poses a tremendous challenge, as Russia's military has effectively learned from its previous errors.

"The Russians are considered to be fast-learners of our tactics - thats proven by their actions on the battlefield," Tarnovsky told CNN.

A Ukrainian serviceman loads unguided missiles into a launcher of a military Mi-8 helicopter in eastern Ukraine on Friday.

Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters

Still, the influx of advanced weaponry from the western nations, particularly extended-range artillery and cluster munitions supplied by the US, has inflicted considerable damage on the formidable Russian forces.

According to the UK Defense Ministry, sections of the recently established 25th Combined Arms Army of Russia have been dispatched to reinforce units in the northern region, essentially filling gaps in a stagnant area where neither faction is achieving any significant advancements.

The ministry stated last week that with 25 CAA seemingly being deployed gradually to support the overextended line, the likelihood of a coordinated new Russian offensive in the next few weeks is reduced.

Mick Ryan, a former Australian general and author of Futura Doctrina, who has recently visited Ukraine, emphasizes that the extent to which Ukraine can cause significant casualties and damage to the Russians in the upcoming offensives will be a crucial indicator of success.

The morale of the Russian military is difficult to determine. Ukrainian officials claim that many Russian prisoners of war lack a clear understanding of their purpose for fighting, and there is often a lack of discipline. Although there are some anecdotal reports supporting this notion from various sources, it is not believed to significantly harm the Russian military's capabilities.

Contrary to popular belief, there have been false claims about the Russians depleting their supply of missiles and other weapons. It is true that Ukrainian officers have observed a decrease in incoming artillery fire in certain areas. However, once the winter arrives and the "heating season" commences, it is anticipated that there will be a resurgence of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

"They are amassing missiles for it," said Maksym Timchenko, the CEO of Ukrainian energy provider DTEK, in an interview with CNN this month.

In the previous year, Russian missile attacks severely affected approximately two-thirds of Ukraine's energy facilities, but did not succeed in weakening the determination of the civilian population. The occurrence of recent strikes this month indicates the likelihood of another imminent offensive.

An 85-year-old resident stands inside her destroyed house in the Russian-controlled Ukrainian city of Mariupol on Tuesday.

Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

But just as they seek to degrade Russian air defenses, the Ukrainians have made strides in improving their own.

"According to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, last year lacked systems like Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, SAMP-T, and many others. However, our air defense system has significantly improved in terms of comprehensiveness and expertise. It is expected to become even stronger by winter."

"In addition, energy production has also witnessed growth. Currently, there are seven operating nuclear power reactors, with an additional two expected to begin operation. Importation of electricity from the EU has increased, and there has been a notable rise in domestic production of natural gas."

Distribution remains a concern. There is a shortage of autotransformers, and it is anticipated that power outages will continue to occur this winter. However, compared to last year, the Ukrainian grid has become more robust.

The long run

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and other officials have acknowledged the "steady progress" achieved by Ukraine on the battlefield. However, there is a growing sentiment of an impending stalemate among many Western analysts and officials.

The discussions increasingly revolve around the possibility of the conflict persisting until 2025. Historical patterns indicate that wars often reach a point where progress halts after their initial stages. This was evident in the aftermath of the separatist conflict that erupted in Donbas in 2014.

Ryan, a former Australian general, argues that Ukraine's western allies should acknowledge and prepare for this situation. "If the West commits to assisting Ukraine throughout the conflict, it can weaken Putin's attempts to surpass the support given to Ukraine," he stated.

Major Robert Rose, a US Army officer, agrees with the assessment that Ukraine cannot afford to engage in swift offensive maneuvers. Instead, it should focus on attrition tactics, which may not be glamorous but are necessary to wear down the Russian invaders. Despite this, both Europe and the United States are still dedicated to providing military and financial assistance to Ukraine. However, there are indications of waning enthusiasm, as doubts and disagreements emerge.

Firefighters are seen after a massive overnight missile attack to Ukraine on September 21.

Ukraine's recent dispute with the Polish government regarding grain exports highlighted its susceptibility to changing political attitudes among allied nations. As the election campaign among rival Republicans unfolds in the US, the level of support for Ukraine remains a contentious matter.

The spring of 2024 is expected to be a critical period in the ongoing conflict, with both sides utilizing the winter season for necessary preparations. It is anticipated that the initial deployment of Ukrainian F-16s will take place, alongside a potential increase in the deployment of ATACMs and other long-range missiles. Additionally, Ukraine's domestic production capabilities are growing. Consequently, Max Boot, the Council for Foreign Relations, emphasizes the urgent need to expedite the supply of Western arms.

Boot stated that not providing enough weapons to Ukraine only prolongs the possibility of the conflict enduring indefinitely. The Ukrainians will also analyze the political situation in the US and their European allies, particularly those perceived as less supportive, to gauge the status of the "coalition of the willing."

In Russia, the upcoming year could bring about more severe economic repercussions as a result of the war.

The Kremlin has successfully promoted the idea that protecting the homeland is a matter of existential importance, leaving no room for public opposition. While sanctions have had some negative impact, they have not yet reached a debilitating level; additionally, the oil price is playing a role in mitigating the harm to the national budget.

But with the economy increasingly focused on supporting the military (at least 6% of GDP will be allocated to defense spending next year), there are mounting challenges: labor shortages, inflation, and a consistently weak ruble. Vladimir Putin is unlikely to reduce social spending before next year's election, especially considering the anticipated stabilization of oil and gas prices that most analysts expect.

Numerous factors will influence the outcome of this conflict in the coming year. Firstly, both sides will have to endure the harsh conditions of winter, including mud, frost, and mist.