Joe Biden's Incumbency Struggles Mirror Historic Deficits
Joe Biden is currently facing a rare deficit as an incumbent president Donald Trump holds a slight edge over him, making Biden only the second president in modern polling history to trail at this stage of the campaign
Electoral analysts, including myself, have a tendency to be cautious. We use phrases like "may" and "could" to avoid making premature conclusions, particularly when studying polls for a potential 2024 general election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
However, it is evident that Trump currently holds a slight yet significant edge over Biden. Consequently, Biden finds himself as only the second president, since the advent of scientific polling, to lag behind in his reelection campaign at this stage.
Recent national surveys from CBS News/YouGov, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, and Quinnipiac University indicate an advantage for Trump of 2 to 4 points over Biden among registered or likely voters. While individually these data points may not hold significant weight as Trump's lead falls within the margin of error, collectively they present a concerning picture for the incumbent.
In the past 80 years, incumbents have consistently maintained an average lead of over 10 points against their eventual challengers approximately one year before the election. This trend holds true for almost all incumbents since Franklin Roosevelt in 1943.
One noteworthy example is the 2011 election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. It is important to address this case as some Democrats have been attempting to downplay the current data suggesting challenges for Biden by claiming that Obama also trailed at this stage. However, this claim is false.
Despite being the only incumbent lagging in the polls at this stage, the man Biden replaced - Trump, is anticipated to be his opponent once again. In November 2019, Biden had a lead of approximately 10 points over Trump.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at an event in Miami on October 12, 2023.
Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images
Title: The Potential Influence of RFK Jr. on the 2024 Election Outcome
It is truly remarkable that Trump currently possesses a small polling advantage, a feat he did not achieve at any point during the 2020 campaign. This advantage extends not only to this specific moment in the 2020 cycle but also encompasses a lead in any national poll meeting CNN's publication standards throughout the entire duration of the 2020 cycle.
In this cycle, Trump has outperformed Biden in 17 surveys. This trend holds true in swing states as well, where Trump has been leading in at least one poll in states where he did not have a lead in 2020. These swing states, including Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, are pivotal in deciding the next president.
What changed for Biden?
The question, of course, is why is Biden having so much difficulty against a man he was able to defeat the last time.
The assumption that there is a division within the Democratic party causing these issues for Biden, particularly with the left wing, as seen through the criticism of his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, may seem plausible. However, when considering the data, this does not appear to be the case. In recent surveys conducted by Quinnipiac and Marquette, Biden maintains a significant lead over Trump among very liberal voters, with percentages of 96% to 2% and 95% to 5% respectively.
The numbers from the Pew Research Centers report on validated voters reveal that Biden's performance in 2020 is even stronger. He secured an impressive 92% of the very liberal voters, with only 6% siding with his opponent.
Interestingly, Biden's largest drop in support is observed among the moderate voters. In Quinnipiac's poll, he was leading by a narrow margin of just 12 points, while Marquette's survey showed an 18-point lead. Fox had him up by 5 points, whereas CNN reported a 17-point margin.
The bloc was won by him with a 28-point lead according to the Pew report from 2020. Moderates, according to the exit polls, favored him with a 30-point lead. On average, there was a swing of 15 points away from Biden.
President Joe Biden speaks at the Amtrak Bear Maintenance Facility on Monday, November 6, in Bear, Delaware.
Matt Rourke/AP
In fact, attempting to explain the shift in voter support away from the president solely based on ideology is likely inadequate.
The economy could be a factor in which Biden is currently lagging behind Trump. However, in terms of the economy, voters ultimately favored Trump over Biden during the 2020 campaign.
Age is likely the main explanation for Biden's difficulties as I perceive it. The question of whether Biden is too old to serve as president has undergone significant change since 2020, surpassing other indicators.
The New York Times/Siena College polls, which were released earlier this month, focused on the six closest states that Biden won: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan. According to the polls, a significant 71% of registered voters in those states expressed the belief that Biden is too old to effectively serve as the president. This sentiment was prevalent across all demographics analyzed, with even 51% of Democrats agreeing. In comparison, in 2020, only 36% of registered voters held this view about Biden's age.
Given Biden's status as the oldest president in history, it is understandable that many voters perceive him as too old. Nonetheless, Biden's path to victory lies in persuading a sufficient number of voters that his opponent is also unfit for the presidency due to his advanced age. Notably, if elected, Trump would also become the oldest president ever to hold office.
However, Biden faces the challenge that only 39% of voters perceive Trump as unfit due to his age.
Should Biden successfully increase this figure, it is possible that the polls will start to change. Conversely, if he fails to do so, Trump may become the first president, after Grover Cleveland, to be elected to nonconsecutive terms.
