Israel's Unveiled Strategy for Gaza: The Unanswered Question

Tal and Zak are uncertain about the duration of their deployment in the area known as "the Gaza envelope" in southern Israel, which recently came under attack by Hamas terrorists.

According to them, the timeline could vary from weeks to months. "It's the same for everyone. Nobody knows," Zak shared with CNN during an interview at a military camp near the Gaza border. Due to security concerns, CNN is not disclosing their full names. Both soldiers serve in an artillery unit of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), which was deployed to the region following the killing of 1,400 individuals and the abduction of around 200 by Hamas militants on October 7.

Israel has deployed a significant number of troops and military equipment to the Gaza border, including a unit that is part of this massive buildup. In addition to their regular forces, the IDF has mobilized 300,000 reservists who quickly reported to their bases. The roads surrounding major bases in Israel are crowded with numerous abandoned cars, as reservists hurriedly respond to the call to take up arms.

Given the current circumstances, it appears highly likely that Israel will launch a ground incursion into Gaza. During a gathering near the border, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant informed troops that they would soon witness the enclave "from the inside," indicating a forthcoming operation. Gallant also expressed his belief that Gaza would undergo significant changes as a result.

The specific form of the operation is still uncertain. It is possible that the IDF could either execute a comprehensive invasion or carry out more targeted incursions with the objective of rescuing the hostages and neutralizing Hamas members.

The subsequent events are an even more significant uncertainty. Although the Israeli leadership frequently mentions the necessity of eradicating Hamas, the blueprint for Gaza's future, as well as the welfare of its population exceeding 2 million, remains undisclosed.

According to Harel Chorev, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, there is a widespread belief that anything other than completely eradicating Hamas would have devastating consequences not only for Israel but also for the entire region and even globally.

Chorev explains that eliminating Hamas entails destroying the extensive network of tunnels known as the Gaza City Metro, which serves as infrastructure for transporting people and goods, storing weapons, and housing Hamas command and control centers. Furthermore, it requires dismantling their operational capabilities and eradicating the leadership, both in Gaza and beyond.

An Israeli Merkava tank drives past a fence near Kibbutz Beeri, close to the border with Gaza on October 20, 2023.

According to Hasan Alhasan, a research fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the proposal to eradicate Hamas carries potential dangers, complexities, and unanticipated implications.

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Humanitarian disaster

The IDF has issued an evacuation order for all civilians residing in north Gaza to relocate to the south while airstrikes persistently target the area. This directive has resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis. According to the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), approximately 1.4 million individuals in Gaza have been displaced, accounting for over 60% of the entire population. Gaza has faced a prolonged blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt, and in response to the Hamas attack, Israel has additionally severed the supply of electricity, food, water, and fuel.

Israel announced on October 15 that water supply has been restored. However, due to the absence of electricity to operate the pumping station, authorities in Gaza are unable to verify the restoration of water, let alone distribute it. There is a growing concern, particularly in Egypt, that Israel's deliberate intensification of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza aims to ultimately compel a large-scale displacement of Palestinians into the Egyptian Sinai. Alhasan voiced this apprehension, stating that Egypt, supported by all Arab states, will not permit such a scenario.

"The Jordanians express their concern over the potential mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, as they fear it could set a precedent. They worry that Israel's right-wing government might attempt to permanently resolve the Palestinian issue by forcibly relocating large numbers of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and from the West Bank to Jordan," he added.

Israel has consistently asserted that its military campaign targets Hamas and not the civilians residing in Gaza. However, an IDF spokesperson informed CNN on Saturday that despite their efforts to minimize civilian casualties, urban warfare inevitably leads to such unfortunate outcomes.

Lt. Col. Peter Lerner emphasized to CNN's Lynda Kinkade that the IDF's main objective is to defeat Hamas, even considering the possibility of a ground operation. He stressed the importance of ensuring that Hamas never regains control of the government or the capacity to carry out acts of terrorism.

A formation of Israeli tanks and other military is positioned near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel October 20, 2023.

Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters

The most just war

The extensive military presence along the border of the Gaza Strip is readily apparent, along with the notable morale exhibited by the troops. In close proximity to the camp where Tal and Zak are located, individuals from all over Israel have established an impromptu rest area for the passing soldiers. Here, they provide nourishment and distribute beverages, religious articles, cigarettes, and, notably, high-quality coffee, which some soldiers deem particularly essential.

Rabbi Yitzhak, a military chaplain, has been touring the Gaza border area to uplift the troops and provide them with encouragement.

"I am here to fortify the soldiers, enabling them to concentrate on their duties... as time passes, fatigue may set in, and it is crucial for them to know that they are cherished and valued. Despite their anxiety, they possess unwavering strength," he remarked. He further emphasized that his primary objective is to heighten morale amongst the soldiers, empowering them to successfully accomplish their mission.

The terror attack by Hamas has profoundly impacted Israel, with a significant number of victims making it deeply personal to many. Tal, an artillery unit soldier, shared with CNN that it is highly unlikely to find a person in the country who does not know someone killed in the attack.

A young reservist, who was summoned back to duty just a year after completing his mandatory military service, expressed that the conflict between Israel and Hamas was "undoubtedly the most morally justified war."

"I can't think of anything more just than this. They brutally killed innocent civilians. That's why we're here," he conveyed, requesting anonymity due to media restrictions imposed on him.

He and the other young men he served alongside have come together again close to the Gaza border, preparing for what lies ahead - whatever that may entail. "We are prepared, but we anticipate its conclusion soon," he supplemented.

Rabbi Yitzhak, a military rabbi, has visited troops and offering his encouragement.

Ivana Kottasova/CNN

Tight grip

The only certainty is that the situation in Gaza will not be resolved anytime soon. The fate of the people living there once the operation concludes remains uncertain. Israeli politicians have been rather ambiguous regarding their intentions for the enclave, suggesting a potential resemblance to the future of the West Bank.

Hamas, an Islamist organization with a military wing, has held control over Gaza since its significant win in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections. During these elections, Hamas violently expelled Fatah, the faction that forms the core of the Palestinian Authority, from Gaza in 2007. Unlike certain other Palestinian factions, Hamas refuses to interact with Israel and is engaged in a political conflict with the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank and participates in security coordination and negotiations with Israel.

Hamas, labeled as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, and Israel, simultaneously operates religious and social welfare initiatives in Gaza as a means to exert control over the community. Therefore, if Israel achieves the removal of Hamas, it will be incumbent upon them to establish a substitute governing body.

Avi Dichter, a former director of the Israeli Security agency known as Shin Bet and the current agriculture minister, stated that Israel's objective in Gaza is to establish a comparable level of security control to that of the West Bank, where it currently enjoys unrestricted access according to its own terms.

"In the West Bank, whenever we face a military issue, our presence is immediate," Dichter explained to CNN. "However, in Gaza, there is a lack of administrative structure that needs to be created - an additional administration," he added.

According to Harel Chorev, a Middle East expert, the key to rebuilding Gaza is the implementation of a comprehensive, long-term plan similar to the Marshall Plan. The Marshall Plan effectively revived the economy of post-war Europe and contained the spread of Communism. Chorev highlighted the extensive destruction in Gaza, comparing it to the aftermath of World War II, and emphasized the need for assistance. He expressed confidence in international cooperation for rebuilding Gaza, citing the substantial flow of humanitarian aid over the years. However, he also noted that a significant portion of this aid has been misused by Hamas.

"You need to grasp the immense harm inflicted on the Palestinian people by Hamas. In a conversation with a Palestinian Authority official, their sentiment was unmistakable: Hamas must be obliterated, completely eradicated this time. Otherwise, our situation will be irreparable," he expressed. "Naturally, they publicly denounce Israel," he further emphasized.

Fatah, Hamas' political adversary, currently holds control over the Palestinian Authority.

A makeshift food fair has been created by volunteers from across Israel for soldiers deployed in the area.

Ivana Kottasova/CNN

However, Alhasan said securing international help could be difficult if Israel proceeds with its plan to invade Gaza.

"I believe garnering cooperation from the Arab states for the post-Israeli incursion-scenario would pose significant challenges, as they did not initially support it... The outcome will largely depend on whether Israel decides to fully annex Gaza or chooses an alternative path," he expressed.

He highlighted that the primary concern lies in Israel's forceful tactics, which may result in a substantial loss of civilian lives, ultimately allowing the emergence of another extremist group in place of Hamas.

Militant groups employ a strategy of provoking an excessive response, which in turn fuels radicalization and facilitates their ongoing recruitment efforts. As violence escalates, the perception grows that violence is the only viable solution. Consequently, the IDF campaign in Gaza has resulted in a devastating death toll, surpassing 4,000.

Alhasan suggested that the mass expulsion scenario in Israel may not be so far-fetched, as it could serve the purpose of eradicating Hamas and preventing the emergence of even more radical groups.

Chorev, on the other hand, believed that an international initiative to reconstruct Gaza's economy could potentially disrupt this cycle of violence. He proposed that directing the substantial international funds previously invested in Hamas projects towards education, welfare, and industry could greatly improve the prospects for the people of Gaza.

Tal and Zak, as they aid their unit in launching additional missiles towards Gaza in order to systematically eliminate Hamas targets, do not consider the future beyond the immediate days. In fact, Zak disclosed to CNN that they consciously avoid dwelling on future thoughts.

"We strive to avoid idle moments as they tend to lead our minds to unwanted places. Within our group, we have experienced the loss of friends and family members. Some of us have even lost their significant others," he conveyed.

Reporting contributed by Adi Kopelwitz, Nic Robertson, Muhammad Darwish, and Mike Whelan of CNN.