Israel's Allies Concerned About Potential Escalation in Gaza as Hamas and Allies Expand Their Conflict Reach

Watching airstrikes and hot-barreled howitzers relentlessly strike targets in Gaza, Israeli soldiers diligently inspect and prepare their personal weapons, communication devices, and webbing. Amidst the intense anticipation for combat, there are undoubtedly only a few soldiers who do not silently ponder the possibility of falling into a trap. It is evident that Hamas, along with its supporters in Tehran, meticulously strategized to confront an aggressive Israeli ground offensive following their alarming infiltration into Israel.

It is likely that Hamas deliberately caused immense suffering to numerous civilians with the intention of provoking a large-scale Israeli retaliation, regardless of the impact on the people in Gaza. The actions taken by Israel in the near future will be critical in shaping the future, possibly for years to come. Ultimately, everything hinges on the situation in Gaza.

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Hamas has extensively spread networks of tunnels throughout the Strip. The above-ground landscape is likely filled with strategically placed booby traps, alongside plans to confront the IDF using various tactics, ranging from swarms of suicide bombers to snatch teams aimed at taking soldiers hostage.

Israel has benefited from the knowledge and expertise of US generals and other officials, who have shared their own vast experiences in urban warfare on a significant scale.

In 2017, with the support of American, British, and other special forces, Iraq's military, aided by relentless air strikes, managed to liberate Mosul from ISIS. Although the city was mostly evacuated, the battle against ISIS was fought painstakingly, with house-to-house combat. Using elaborate tunnel networks, ISIS continuously ambushed the government forces, prolonging the struggle to reclaim Mosul, step by step, amidst intense bloodshed.

Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and close ally of Hamas, has spread its bomb-making expertise throughout the Middle East. In Gaza, Israeli soldiers will be aware that they will encounter improvised explosive devices designed to disable tanks. They will also be aware that Hezbollah has improved its ability to destroy armored vehicles since Israel's last major conflict in Lebanon in 2006, when they were surprised by the militia's advanced tactics.

Furthermore, Hamas now possesses anti-aircraft capabilities, putting Israeli Apache helicopters at risk from a single individual equipped with a surface-to-air missile (SAM).

No doubt Hamas also has teams of propagandists prepared to create "kill videos" showcasing their assaults on Israeli soldiers. Films of violence and audacity, as we learned from ISIS, have a high probability of provoking and radicalizing enraged young individuals.

Whole neighborhoods have been flattened in Israel's strikes on Gaza. Pictured here is part of Beit Hanoun, Gaza, on October 21

Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies

Phase two

Its safe to assume that Hamas would have planned for widespread carnage in Gaza. Indeed that may be the objective of phase two after the October 7 attacks.

Irans Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian issued a warning on Sunday, emphasizing the potential grave outcomes in the region and for those instigating genocide and forced displacement. His statement should not be interpreted as mere analysis but rather as a clear threat.

The White House is aware of this fact. A situation where Israel is entrapped could result in severe and perilous repercussions, resulting in a similar "Clash of Civilizations" that occurred after the events of 9/11.

President Joe Biden will prioritize the well-being of American hostages in Gaza, as well as the numerous other individuals, exceeding 200, who are currently held captive by Hamas and other factions within the enclave.

Concerns have been raised by CNN's sources in Washington regarding a potential Israeli ground operation, fearing that it could escalate into an uncontrollable conflagration similar to what transpired in Iraq following the US-led invasion to depose Saddam Hussein. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has long associated Hamas with the Islamic State, viewing the Israel-Hamas conflict as a clash of civilizations.

An aid truck arrives at a UN storage facility as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in the central Gaza Strip October 21, 2023.

Mohammed Salem/Reuters

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"Hamas mirrors the Nazis and ISIS. It is crucial that we join forces, like the global civilized community did against the Nazis and ISIS, to combat them," he voiced during a press conference while British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was visiting this week.

Hamas' recent acts of brutality were a grotesque display of horror, yet it is important to note that the extremist group differs from ISIS. Interestingly, Hamas has actively and fiercely suppressed ISIS factions within Gaza, as they embrace a version of political Islam that Hamas strongly opposes.

Hamas aspires to establish a Palestinian state grounded in Islamic principles, yet it does not seek a caliphate. Importantly, Hamas has not engaged in attacks beyond Israel and the Palestinian territories, nor has it utilized the internet to promote global radicalization.

However, Hamas remains steadfast in its objective to dismantle the Jewish state. The international community has strongly condemned its recent heinous acts and has expressed vocal support for Israel.

French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in Israel on Tuesday, emphasized the need for an uncompromising fight against terror groups. However, he also acknowledged the importance of avoiding a situation in which the West is seen as engaging in a war against Islam, emphasizing the need to navigate realpolitik as well as ethics.

That "struggle," he said, "must be without mercy, but not without rules."

Atatra, Gaza, on May 10

Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies

Atatra, Gaza, on October 21

Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies

Atatra, Gaza

SATELLITE IMAGE ©2023 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES

Over 1,400 individuals lost their lives in the Hamas-led incursions within Israel. Palestinian health officials report that the death toll in Gaza is surpassing 5,700. The Israel Defense Forces are making efforts to reduce civilian casualties.

The 2.3 million population is currently facing a state of almost complete siege, with the UN reporting that 1.4 million individuals have been displaced within this narrow region. However, if Israel were to launch a ground operation, these numbers would undoubtedly increase significantly for both parties involved.

Pro-Palestinian demonstrations against Israel's extensive destruction in Gaza have taken place worldwide. If Israel initiates a land incursion, the situation is expected to worsen significantly, with even louder protests.

Simultaneously, Israel's adversaries, who are all committed to the state's annihilation, have convened in Lebanon.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah held a meeting with Saleh Al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas, and Ziad Al-Nakhla, secretary-general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, on Wednesday.

Following the meeting, Hezbollah issued a statement emphasizing the need for the resistance axis parties to take action during this critical phase in order to secure a true victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestine. The statement also condemned the treacherous and brutal aggression against their people.

Yocheved Lifshitz, an 85-year-old Israeli grandmother who had been held captive in Gaza, is seen after her release by Hamas militants. She is pictured at Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 24, 2023. REUTERS/Janis Laizans

Janis Laizans/Reuters

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It is certain that operatives from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Brigade, the prominent international military and intelligence unit of Tehran, were present. The Quds brigade has extensively supported, financed, and mentored all three factions for a considerable period.

Their aim is to capitalize on Israel's forthcoming actions in Gaza, considering it as their own "phase two" following the October 7 assaults.

Hezbollah has diverted Israeli forces' attention from Gaza by engaging in clashes along Lebanon's southern border. The US has accused Iran of deploying Iraqi proxies to attack American logistics bases in Baghdad. The ongoing conflict is fueled by the Iranian-supported Houthis in Yemen, who have attempted to launch missiles towards Israel. These missile attacks were successfully intercepted by the US.

Citizens of the United States, as well as several European nationals, are being advised to evacuate Middle Eastern countries near Israel. Even Australia has three planes ready to assist with evacuation efforts.

John Kirby, the spokesperson for the US National Security Council, expressed on Monday that the administration is closely monitoring the potential escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed militia groups against US military forces deployed in the Middle East.

An Israeli soldier stands in an armoured vehicle near the Lebanon border on October 23, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas.

Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images

Consumed by rage

Iran may be trying to draw US Washingtons attention away from the Israeli theater - but it may also be trying to goad the US into more conflict.

The US is actively attempting to avoid this conflict. As per CNN's reporting, President Biden is advising caution in his discussions with the Israeli Prime Minister. He has further emphasized his private conversations with public statements.

"It is impossible to witness the suffering of mothers, fathers, grandparents, sons, daughters, children, and even infants without demanding justice. Justice must prevail. However, I urge you to exercise caution and not let anger consume you," he stated. "Following the events of 9/11, our nation was filled with rage. While justice was served, we also made errors."

The US-led invasion of Iraq, accompanied by the perception of Islam being targeted by the West, resulted in widespread chaos in the Middle East, which in turn led to the emergence of the so-called Islamic State or Caliphate - and subsequent worldwide terrorist attacks.

Al Jazeera's Gaza bureau chief Wael Al-Dahdouh expressed deep sorrow over the tragic deaths of his family members during a strike on October 25. Video footage reveals Al-Dahdouh overwhelmed with grief as he stands beside the lifeless body of his son and holds his grandchild's remains while at al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in Gaza.

According to Al Jazeera, the family of a journalist was killed in a Gaza strike. Karin von Hippel, a former adviser to the US military on combating terrorism and the director of the Royal United Services Institute, highlighted President Biden's warnings to the Israeli government not to repeat the mistakes made in Afghanistan. She emphasized the overreaction and loss of goodwill that occurred after 9/11, including the war in Iraq and the expansion of the war in Afghanistan.

Martin Sherman, the head of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies and a staunch advocate for a more assertive stance against Israel's regional adversaries, challenges the prevailing consensus.

He believes Israel should launch a strong military offensive in Gaza.

"I doubt the Arabs will ever fully accept Israel... Israel should aim to inspire significant fear and, at best, earn begrudging acceptance," he stated.

The IDF soldiers, positioned at their assembly points, contemplate the possibility of engaging in a significant battle in Gaza. They also contemplate the prospect that their sons may return to the same place years later, aspiring to instill a sense of fear among their adversaries.