Is Flying Safe Amidst Growing Concerns?

This year, there have been more reports of frightening and sometimes heartbreaking events on airplanes, making people question the safety of flying.

For example, on an Alaska Airlines flight, a door plug suddenly blew out, causing a large hole in the Boeing 737 Max fuselage. As a result, passengers’ phones and clothes were torn off and thrown out into the darkness. Meanwhile, oxygen masks were deployed, but thankfully, the plane landed safely without any major injuries.

Another Boeing airplane experienced a sudden drop, causing passengers to be thrown onto the cabin ceiling. As a result, many passengers were injured and had to be taken to the hospital after the plane landed.

Tragically, a passenger plane crashed into a military aircraft at a Tokyo airport, resulting in the deaths of five members of the Japanese Coast Guard. The coast guard personnel were responding to an earthquake when the collision occurred.

More minor incidents occurred, such as a 200-pound wheel falling off a plane during takeoff, causing damage to parked vehicles below. Another plane experienced an engine fire, while a jet that landed at an airport was found to have a missing panel. These incidents all garnered significant attention on social media.

However, determining whether it is still safe to fly is not a simple answer.

Flying is actually very safe compared to other forms of travel. In fact, it is much safer than driving a car, which most people do without a second thought every day.

According to Anthony Brickhouse, a crash investigator and professor of aviation safety at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, stepping into the airplane at the airport is the safest part of the journey. In comparison, you are actually at a higher risk when you are driving to the airport.

But it’s also true that it’s only pure luck that the American aviation industry has kept its near-perfect safety record intact.

15 nearly perfect years

Since the tragic regional jet crash in Buffalo, New York in 2009, where 49 passengers and one person on the ground lost their lives, there have been only five other fatalities in accidents on scheduled commercial flights in the United States.

In 2013, three passengers tragically lost their lives when an Asiana Airlines plane broke apart and crashed just short of the runway in San Francisco.

In 2018, tragedy struck a Southwest flight when a passenger lost her life after an engine cover broke off, causing a window to shatter next to her seat.

In 2019, another passenger met a fatal end when a small plane skidded off the runway in rural Alaska.

On average, over 100 people lost their lives each day on America's roads and highways from 2003 to 2022. This is based on the most recent data available for full-year traffic fatalities. To put it in perspective, the number of deaths on roads and highways every hour is nearly equal to the total number of people who died in commercial aviation accidents in the US over a span of 15 years.

The destroyed fuselage of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 is visible on the runway at San Francisco International Airport after it crashed on landing and burned on Saturday, July 6, 2013.

The wreckage of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 can be seen on the runway at San Francisco International Airport. The plane crashed during landing and caught fire on Saturday, July 6, 2013.

Photo Credit: Carlos Avila Gonzalez/The San Francisco Chronicle/Getty Images/File

However, other types of flying are much riskier.

Since 2009, about 300 individuals have lost their lives while using "on demand" air service, like private jets. Additionally, close to 5,500 people have died in general aviation accidents, involving small planes usually flown by amateur pilots.

Railroads are considered the second safest form of travel, following commercial aviation. From 2009 to last year, there were 71 passenger deaths on commuter trains and Amtrak. However, it's important to note that passenger trains cover fewer miles compared to planes or motor vehicles.

When you consider the significantly higher number of miles traveled by airplanes, it becomes evident that traveling on the ground is much riskier than flying on a commercial US airline.

Ed Pierson, the director of the Foundation for Aviation Safety and a strong critic of Boeing, is aware of the statistics. However, due to his concerns about quality controls at the troubled aircraft manufacturer, he adamantly refuses to fly on the Boeing 737 Max or allow any of his family members to do so. In fact, he once disembarked from a Max just before takeoff when he discovered that it was the particular model of plane he was scheduled to fly on.

Still, Pierson said he is willing to fly on most planes, even many older Boeing models.

“Taking the Max out of the equation, (flying has) been proven to be pretty darn safe,” he said.

Disaster narrowly averted

Unfortunately, the safety record of recent years is not a guarantee of safety in the future.

The US airplane travel industry has achieved a remarkable record of nearly no fatalities, thanks to the combined efforts of aviation authorities, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers. Despite recent criticism directed towards these groups, their collaboration has played a significant role in maintaining safety standards.

However, the main factor behind this impressive safety record is simply luck. In each scenario, if circumstances had unfolded slightly differently, the consequences could have been much more severe.

The National Transportation Safety Board reported that the Alaska Air plane flew for over two months without the necessary four bolts to secure the door plug in place.

Passenger oxygen masks hang from the roof next to a missing window and a portion of a side wall of an Alaska Airlines Flight 1282, which had been bound for Ontario, California and suffered depressurization soon after departing, in Portland, Oregon, U.S., January 5, 2024 in this picture obtained from social media.

Passenger oxygen masks are seen hanging from the roof next to a missing window and a portion of a side wall of an Alaska Airlines Flight 1282. The flight was headed for Ontario, California but experienced depressurization shortly after takeoff. The incident took place in Portland, Oregon on January 5, 2024, as shown in a photo obtained from social media.

The image was shared on Instagram by @strawberrvy and was later distributed by Reuters.

Related article

The Alaska Air flight was terrifying. It could have been so much worse

The door plug blew out at 16,000 feet during the 154th flight of the aircraft. Twenty-two of those flights were between Hawaii and the mainland.

If the door had blown out at the normal cruising altitude of 35,000 feet, or hours away from the nearest airport over the open Pacific Ocean, or if the plug had hit the tail of the plane and caused damage, it could have resulted in the loss of the aircraft and the 177 people on board.

And that's not even the most significant breakthrough. Just one year ago, the main concern regarding air safety wasn't centered around Boeing aircraft. Instead, it was about a string of close calls on airport runways across the country, with numerous reports of almost-collisions being narrowly avoided.

Close calls for airplanes on the ground

On February 4, 2023, a FedEx jet nearly landed on the same runway where a Southwest jet was taking off, coming within just 150 feet of each other. This was one of five close calls that happened in a span of seven weeks at the beginning of last year.

Another alarming incident took place in July 2017, when an Air Canada jet, flown by a captain who had been awake for over 19 hours, almost landed on a taxiway at San Francisco International Airport. At that time, three large jets filled with passengers were waiting to take off on the same taxiway.

The Air Canada jet came within 100 feet of the ground before taking off again without hitting any of the passenger planes on the ground. The NTSB reported that over 1,000 people on the four planes could have lost their lives if the accident hadn't been prevented in the nick of time.

According to Brickhouse, it could have been the deadliest aviation disaster ever. He emphasized that pilots, air traffic controllers, and mechanics are all human and can make mistakes. The goal is to create a system that allows for recovery from errors without tragic consequences.

Pierson expressed concerns about the current state of the system, stating that it is facing unprecedented stress. He emphasized the need for regulators, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing to implement necessary changes.

According to Pierson, the system is experiencing significant strain due to various factors. These include a shortage of staff in air traffic control, pilots, maintenance personnel, and manufacturing personnel.

Plagued by overconfidence?

What concerns Pierson the most is the attitude that the apparent safety of the American aviation system means nothing needs to be improved.

"There's a feeling of too much confidence," he mentioned. "The gold standard is deteriorating because we keep ignoring issues and insisting that the system is secure. This mindset is not correct. It's this mindset that can lead to tragic consequences."

Brickhouse is confident in the safety of the current planes. He highlighted that the recent Alaska Air incident shed light on a number of other incidents that, while not ideal, do not present a significant danger on their own.

Safety events in aviation are common occurrences, but they do not necessarily reflect poorly on the aviation industry. After the incident with Alaska Air, concerns escalated, and people became more sensitive to safety issues.

Brickhouse, while having greater trust in the safety measures of the aviation system compared to Pierson, understands and respects individuals who may feel fearful about flying at the moment or prefer to avoid aircraft like the 737 Max. He also shares his own worries about the frequency of near-miss incidents at airports nationwide.

“I don’t believe in luck, but we are fortunate that these incidentsdid not turn into disasters,” he said. “When you have a trend that keeps occurring, you need to focus on fixing it.”

Editor's P/S:

Despite concerns raised by recent incidents, flying remains significantly safer than other modes of transportation. Statistics indicate that the American aviation industry has maintained an impressive safety record, with minimal fatalities in commercial flights. However, the article highlights the role of luck in these statistics and the potential for severe consequences if circumstances change slightly.

The article also raises concerns about the current state of the aviation system, including staff shortages and potential complacency. Experts emphasize the need for continuous improvement and addressing systemic issues to ensure future safety. While the article acknowledges the concerns of some individuals, it encourages confidence in the overall safety of flying and the efforts of aviation authorities, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers to maintain high standards.