Iran's New Foreign Minister - Building Continuity Amidst Crisis

After the helicopter crash that tragically took the lives of Iran's president and other key officials, the country quickly put a succession plan in place. This was done to show stability during a time of sudden upheaval within the regime.

One notable figure that caught the attention of US officials was the newly appointed acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani.

US officials see Kani as a tough establishment figure who has played a key role in negotiating sensitive issues with the United States, such as nuclear concerns and the use of proxy forces to target US and allied interests in the region.

Last week in Oman, Kani was part of a group of senior Iranian officials who met indirectly with US officials. Due to the lack of formal diplomatic relations between the US and Iran, the two delegations were kept in separate rooms, with Omani officials acting as intermediaries to pass messages between them.

US officials said that Kani is a familiar figure and serves as an example of why the Biden administration anticipates minimal changes in Iran despite the recent deaths of its president and top officials.

After receiving initial reports of a helicopter crash involving Iran's highest-ranking leaders, including President Ebrahim Raisi, US officials were uncertain about the extent of the accident for several hours on Sunday.

TEHRAN, IRAN - APRIL 29: Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi officially welcomed Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid at Saadabad Cultural & Historical Complex in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Sakineh Salimi/Borna News/Aksonline ATPImages/Getty Images)

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi warmly received Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid at the Saadabad Cultural & Historical Complex in Tehran, Iran. The two leaders met to discuss important matters and strengthen the relationship between their countries.

Sakineh Salimi/Borna News/Aksonline ATPImages/Getty Images

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After it was confirmed that Raisi and the others on board had tragically lost their lives, the general belief within the US government was that Iran's foreign and domestic policies would probably stay the same.

Iran’s true leader is the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Raisi, on the other hand, was more of a functionary. According to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence analyst, he had some influence and impact, but the ultimate decision-making authority lies solely with the Supreme Leader.

At 85 years old, Khamenei has been in poor health and closely monitored. With the recent deaths of many top officials, US officials believe that Khamenei will make sure that their replacements share his hardline views.

A senior administration official mentioned that it is unlikely there will be significant changes in Iran's behavior on the global platform. In fact, according to Panikoff, the passing of Raisi and other key figures might cause Iran to be more cautious in the near future.

The senior administration official warned that it's too early to predict the full impact of the crash on regional volatility, such as Iran's involvement in the Gaza conflict. However, the Biden administration currently anticipates minimal impact.

As for the succession plan, it is important to consider how the crash may affect it.

Raisi's death has caused a stir among Washington intelligence and policy experts as they discuss who may succeed Khamenei. The Supreme Leader is selected by a secretive group called the Assembly of Experts. Some experts speculate that Khamenei's son could be a potential successor, despite lacking the necessary religious qualifications.

However, it is difficult to predict how the election process will unfold and whether the recent events have affected the chances of Khamenei's son.

"I believe this statement holds true if the Ayatollah passes away within the next month," Panikoff expressed. "However, the validity of this statement may diminish if his passing occurs in two to three years, allowing other individuals to emerge and become part of the system."

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei arrives to vote for the parliamentary runoff elections, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, May 10, 2024.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei arrives to vote for the parliamentary runoff elections, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, May 10, 2024.

Vahid Salemi/AP

Raisi’s death could potentially spark domestic protests as per the Iranian constitution, a new president must be elected within 50 days of his passing.

The Iranian regime has faced challenges in garnering public support, especially with Raisi being labeled as "the butcher of Tehran." A meme celebrating his death has already circulated in Iran, indicating public sentiment. Analysts predict that the regime will exert strict control over the election process, further reinforcing the belief that elections in Iran are not truly democratic.

But experts predict that Iranian authorities will likely suppress any new protests that may arise. The parliamentary elections in March had very few people participating, showing dissatisfaction with the government. This is concerning for regime leaders, but most analysts do not think it will lead to effective grassroots protests.

There is also a concern about how this situation will affect proxy activities.

The sudden shakeup in Iran's leadership structure has occurred amidst heightened tensions in the region due to Israel's invasion of Gaza. Iran has been supporting various groups that have been attacking US and Israeli interests in the area. In April, Iran even launched a significant missile and drone attack directly on Israel.

US officials have always suspected that Iran is trying to carefully manage the ongoing conflicts in the region, causing damage to its enemies without engaging in a full-scale direct conflict with Israel or the United States. And so far, Iran seems to have been successful in this strategy.

A US military official mentioned that there has been no increase in proxy activity following the crash.

The official emphasized that the passing of Raisi and the promotion of Kani to foreign minister have not created any new chances for the United States in handling Iran. The ongoing challenges, such as Iran's nuclear program, continue to be difficult to address.

US officials reiterated to Iranian officials in Oman last week the consequences of Iran’s destabilizing actions, behavior, and policies. The Biden administration believes that maintaining communication with Iran is crucial to prevent misunderstandings that could lead to conflict. Through a combination of deterrence and diplomacy, such as the recent talks, the US aims to address issues like Iran’s support for terrorism, proxy groups, and its nuclear program.

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October, the two sides have been communicating indirectly several times. Last week marked the first meeting of this kind in several months.

After the crash, Iran reached out to the US for assistance in the recovery efforts.

The US, according to State Department spokesman Matt Miller, was unable to help “largely for logistical reasons.”

Editor's P/S:

The sudden crash that took the lives of Iran's president and other key officials has sent shockwaves through the region and the world. While the immediate impact on Iran's foreign and domestic policies is expected to be minimal, the long-term implications remain uncertain. The appointment of Ali Bagheri Kani as acting foreign minister suggests that Iran's hardline stance is likely to continue, but it is too early to say whether this will affect the ongoing nuclear negotiations or the conflict in Gaza.

The succession plan put in place after the crash underscores the importance of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Iran's political system. Khamenei's health and the potential for a power struggle within the regime are key factors to watch in the coming months. The possibility of Khamenei's son succeeding him raises questions about the future direction of Iran's leadership and its impact on both domestic and international relations.