Iran's Historic Election Turnout Plummets Despite Urges for Voter Engagement

Iran recently experienced its lowest voter turnout since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Despite this, officials are celebrating the participation of the 25 million people who did vote as a triumph over the country's "obstinate opponents." According to Iran's state news outlet IRNA, out of the 61 million eligible voters, only 25 million participated in the parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections held on March 1.

Experts suggest that the announced voter turnout is not final. Official data shows that only 41% of voters participated, but according to Alex Vatanka from the Middle East Institute, the actual turnout is likely even lower due to the extreme vetting process in this round.

Despite extending the voting time three times and making efforts to increase participation levels in the weeks leading up to the election, turnout in Iran remained low.

A man watches a video of Iranian singer Shervin Hajipour, in the Cypriot capital Nicosia on October 4, 2022.

A man watches a video of Iranian singer Shervin Hajipour, in the Cypriot capital Nicosia on October 4, 2022.

Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images

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The situation is unfolding as Iranians face challenges such as a falling local currency, a struggling economy, and increased repression of dissent. Rights groups believe that the crackdown on dissent has worsened since the 2022 protest movement, triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini while in police custody.

Iranian officials and state media celebrated the turnout as a success, despite facing the largest election boycott campaign in 45 years. The semi-official Fars news agency in Iran praised the participation, attributing the boycott to "foreign enemies and their internal followers."

President Ebrahim Raisi expressed his gratitude to the voters on Saturday, acknowledging their contribution as a strong message to Iran's persistent adversaries.

Turnout for the current election is the lowest since the 1979 Revolution. Although it is not as low as some polls had predicted, the number of voters announced is still lower than any election held in Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Republic.

It is uncertain if the current 41% voter turnout will decrease even more in the following days, as some candidates in the parliamentary election are headed for a runoff.

Recent elections have shown a trend of declining participation rates. In Iran, the turnout for the last parliamentary election in 2020 was 42.57%, while the last presidential election in 2021 had a turnout of 48.8% - marking the lowest turnout rates since the establishment of the Islamic Republic.

Last week, around 15,000 candidates participated in the parliamentary election for the 290 seats. In addition, 144 candidates ran for the 88 seats of the Assembly of Experts.

The preliminary results indicate that the election saw the victory of mostly hardline politicians. President Ebrahim Raisi was re-elected to the Assembly of Experts, a body that holds the authority to appoint the Supreme Leader, the highest political figure in Iran.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi casts his vote at a Tehran polling station, March 1, 2024.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi casts his vote at a Tehran polling station, March 1, 2024.

Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Key takeaways

Many Iranians in Tehran have mentioned economic hardships and a lack of faith in the government as reasons for abstaining from voting.

In a surprising turn of events, former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami chose not to participate in the voting on March 1. This reformist leader had previously called for the Iranian authorities to show more tolerance towards demonstrators during the 2022 protests. Azar Mansouri, a reformist politician from Iran, recently confirmed Khatami's decision to refrain from voting.

Vatanka pointed out that Khatami's critical stance reflects the diminishing voice of the reformist camp in challenging Khamenei.

In the past, international watchdogs criticized Iran for conducting elections that lack freedom and fairness, with a vetting process that limits the pool of candidates allowed to participate.

This year, thousands of candidates were disqualified by Iran's Guardian Council, a 12-member council responsible for supervising elections and legislation. Additionally, former moderate President Hassan Rouhani was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts.

Some 25 million people cast their ballots out of Iran's 61 million eligible voters.

Some 25 million people cast their ballots out of Iran's 61 million eligible voters.

Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

Other politicians who were once leading election charts also experienced a decline in popularity. For instance, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and former Revolutionary Guards air force commander, saw a decrease in votes, landing in fourth place in this year’s election after reaching the peak of his popularity in the 2020 parliamentary election.

Ghalibaf’s drop in rankings indicates a shift among voters towards a more assertive stance against incumbents and even pragmatic conservatives, according to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, as reported by CNN.

Vakil also mentioned that a high number of spoiled ballots indicated voter dissatisfaction, suggesting that even some voters were protesting.

Vatanka raised the question of what will happen next, noting that for many Iranians, this election served as a referendum on the future of the Islamic Republic.

Few reformists ran in the elections and those who did didn't do well. This shows that the public has lost faith in gradual reform in the Islamic Republic, according to Vakil.

Vakil told CNN that the election results reveal the current state of the system. He mentioned that in order to maintain the existing structure of the Islamic Republic and ensure a smooth succession process, the system has gotten rid of elites who may have become more moderate or pragmatic over time.

CNN’s Rosa Rahimi contributed to this report.

Editor's P/S:

The recent parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections in Iran have exposed a deep-seated disillusionment among the Iranian people. With a voter turnout of only 41%, the lowest since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the election results reflect a widespread lack of faith in the government and its ability to address the country's pressing economic and social challenges. The boycott campaign, the disqualification of thousands of candidates, and the victory of hardline politicians further underscore the government's authoritarian grip on power and the suppression of dissent.

The article highlights the growing frustration of Iranians with the current state of affairs. The economic hardships, the crackdown on dissent, and the lack of political freedom have eroded public trust in the government. The election results demonstrate that the people are yearning for change, for a more democratic and accountable system that respects their rights and aspirations. The authorities must take heed of this message and work towards a more inclusive and responsive government that truly represents the will of the people.