How Ukraine's AI-Powered Drones Are Disrupting Russia's Energy Sector Successfully

A small silhouette approaches in the air, emitting a loud buzzing sound. Despite the eerie reminder of Russian drone strikes on Ukraine, this incident was actually recorded closer to Moscow than Kyiv.

In a video shared on social media and reviewed by CNN, a woman can be heard speaking in Russian, "They're flying right towards us." As the object gets closer, it is revealed to be a Ukrainian drone flying over Russian territory. She expresses her fear, saying, "I'm scared."

Another video captured the same drone changing direction to the left while air raid sirens blare in the background, drowning out the sound of the propeller. Within moments, the drone plunges from the sky and collides with a tower covered in pipes at a Russian oil refinery, causing a fiery explosion.

CNN confirmed the location of the videos to be Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery, which is over 500 km (311 miles) away from Ukraine and is one of Russia’s largest refineries. The attack on March 13 was just one of many strikes on this facility, as part of a coordinated effort by Ukraine to target Russian oil refineries using long-range drones.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives for 'Ukraine. Year 2024' conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 25, 2024.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives for 'Ukraine. Year 2024' conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 25, 2024.

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

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Ukraine wakes up on election day with no plans for voting and a lack of interest in doing so at the moment. However, there are bold Ukrainian attacks targeting Russia's large oil and gas sector. This industry continues to be Moscow's main source of income for its war economy, despite restrictions on Western imports and price controls.

The use of drones with longer ranges and advanced capabilities has enabled recent attacks, with some drones now incorporating basic artificial intelligence to assist with navigation and avoid jamming, according to a source familiar with Ukraine's drone program as reported by CNN.

The source explained that the drones are equipped with artificial intelligence to maintain accuracy even when faced with jamming. Each aircraft is equipped with a terminal computer containing satellite and terrain data. Flights are pre-determined in collaboration with allies, allowing the drones to follow a precise flight plan and strike targets with remarkable precision.

The drone is able to achieve such precision thanks to its sensors.

A research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based think tank, Noah Sylvia, explained that the drone utilizes a technology known as 'machine vision,' which is a form of artificial intelligence. Essentially, a model is trained on a chip to recognize geographic locations and targets it needs to navigate to. Once deployed, the drone can accurately identify its location.

“It does not require any communication (with satellites), it is completely autonomous,” Sylvia added.

Smoke billows after a Ukrainian drone strikes a refinery in Ryazan, Ryazan region, Russia, in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters, March 13, 2024.

Smoke billows after a Ukrainian drone strikes a refinery in Ryazan, Ryazan region, Russia, in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters, March 13, 2024.

Video obtained by Reuters

Chris Lincoln-Jones, a former British military officer and an expert in drone warfare and artificial intelligence, mentioned that the current level of "intelligence" in drones was relatively low.

According to him, this level of autonomy in drones is a new development, indicating that we are just scratching the surface of what this technology could potentially achieve.

CNN reached out to Ukrainian Defense Intelligence and the Security Service of Ukraine(SBU) but neither wanted to comment on the use of AI technology.

‘Defund the Russian war machine’

Ukraine has been using drones extensively since Russia's full-scale invasion began on February 22, 2022. The country has invested in improving technology and manufacturing capabilities to enhance its use of drones.

Initially, Kyiv used off-the-shelf drones for surveillance or adapted them creatively to drop small bombs on the ground. However, Ukraine has now developed a full-fledged drone industry, giving them a technological advantage against Russia's larger manpower and better industrial infrastructure.

Kyiv’s precision in attacks on refineries is evident as Ukrainian forces target specific areas to maximize the impact of their strikes.

Ukrainian drones like these are now equipped with a basic form of Artificial Intelligence, according to a source close to Ukraine’s drone program.

Ukrainian drones like these are now equipped with a basic form of Artificial Intelligence, according to a source close to Ukraine’s drone program.

Terminal Autonomy

Several experts contacted by CNN believe that Ukraine is targeting distillation units instead of fuel storage facilities. These units are where crude oil is processed into fuel and other products.

Sylvia, one of the experts, mentioned that Ukraine may be hitting these targets because they require Western technology that Russia struggles to obtain.

This approach gives Kyiv more bang for its buck, hurting more than just striking the refineries at random. And the markets are noticing.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk attends a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart after bilateral talks to resolve a conflict over farm imports in Warsaw on March 28, 2024. Polish farmers have been blocking border crossings with Ukraine since last month to protest at what they say is unfair competition from goods from the war-torn country. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski / AFP) (Photo by WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met with his Ukrainian counterpart in Warsaw on March 28, 2024, to discuss and find a solution to the conflict over farm imports. The issue arose as Polish farmers have been protesting unfair competition from goods coming from Ukraine by blocking border crossings between the two countries. The talks aimed to address the concerns raised by the farmers and work towards a resolution. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski / AFP) (Photo by WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

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“We view this as a change in Ukrainian tactics aimed at cutting off funding for the Russian military,” explained Helima Croft, who is a managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Many experts suggest that these attacks may have a more significant effect on the Russian economy compared to the existing sanctions.

Croft explained that the sanctions imposed have mostly not targeted energy exports, such as crude oil, natural gas, and refined products, which have been crucial in providing Russia with the economic support to sustain the war.

According to Ukraine, around 12% of Russian refining capacity is currently offline, while Reuters estimates the number to be closer to 14%. Russia has acknowledged that some of its refining capacity is not operational and has enforced a temporary ban on gasoline exports to prevent a surge in domestic fuel prices.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated this month that the recent attacks have shown the vulnerabilities of the Russian war machine that can be targeted by Ukrainian weapons.

He emphasized the significant capabilities of Ukrainian drones, describing them as a long-range asset for the country. Zelensky highlighted that Ukraine will now have a consistent strike force in the sky.

Ukrainian strikes on refineries have led to a global increase in oil prices. Brent crude has gone up by almost 13% this year. This has raised concerns among American politicians, especially in an election year, about the potential economic effects.

Officials in Washington have stated that they are actively discouraging Ukraine from targeting refineries in Russia, without specifically mentioning energy prices. "We have always been clear that we do not support or condone attacks within Russia," one official told CNN.

US and international sanctions put in place since the start of the war have been designed to ensure that Russian energy remains available on the global markets, according to Croft.

Croft explained that the agreement with Ukraine involved providing financial assistance and weapons, with the condition that they steer clear of the export facility and Russian energy to avoid a potential energy crisis.

An operator flies a military drone during a government-sponsored competition. Kyiv has been able to build a fully fledged drone industry from scratch, funding local developers and start-ups.

An operator is flying a military drone in a competition sponsored by the government. Kyiv has successfully developed a thriving drone industry from the ground up by providing support to local developers and start-ups.

The deadlock in Washington regarding funding for Ukraine and the possibility of a new administration in the White House next year may provide some flexibility for Kyiv.

According to Croft, if Ukraine does not receive the promised weapons and financial support, they may question their motivation to honor any agreements made with Washington.

Experts are more concerned that Ukraine may target more than just refineries. Ukraine's drones could potentially reach some of Russia's largest oil ports, which account for about two-thirds of its crude oil and oil product exports, as reported by RBC.

Croft pointed out that if even just one major export facility is hit, it could have a significant impact on the markets. The fact that these export facilities are located near refineries suggests a deliberate choice to target refineries.

Ukrainian officials have taken note of US concerns but have stated that the strikes will persist.

Vasyl Maliuk, the head of the SBU, expressed the need to reduce budget revenues and cut off Mr. Putler's influence, a term commonly used in Ukraine that combines Putin and Hitler's names.

“So we will continue to work, while the gas station country continues to burn,” he added.

CNN’s Paul Murphy, Natasha Bertrand, Olga Voitovych and Victoria Butenko contributed to this report.

Editor's P/S:

The recent attacks on Russian oil refineries by Ukrainian drones have demonstrated the growing technological prowess of Ukraine and the potential vulnerabilities of Russia's war