Hezbollah Pushes Boundaries as Hamas-Israel Conflict Intensifies

The US and its allies are cautioning Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, against further provoking the conflict in Israel. Multiple US officials and individuals briefed on the discussions inform CNN that the US is strategically positioning military resources to discourage the potential escalation of the war. Senior administration officials currently do not anticipate significant involvement by Hezbollah in the Hamas-led conflict against Israel, and they perceive that their warnings have an effect, despite some recent escalations along the border.

The US is utilizing various channels, including the Lebanese government and Nabih Berri, the Speaker of Lebanon's Parliament who is aligned with Hezbollah, to convey the message for Hezbollah to refrain from getting involved in the conflict. Administration officials briefing Congress mentioned Berri as an intermediary. Due to its designation as a terrorist group, the US will not directly engage with Hezbollah, thus making Berri a natural liaison.

Furthermore, at Israel's request, France has communicated to Hezbollah that they must avoid further escalation in the war, or else Israel will respond significantly. These discussions were coordinated in collaboration with the US.

"Western diplomats confirmed that certain Western allies, who maintain informal connections with Hezbollah, have relayed messages to the group. They further noted that Hezbollah's response signifies its current intention to avoid escalation."

U.S. President Joe Biden, along with Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, delivers a statement from the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, following a phone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the ongoing situation in Israel after the devastating attacks conducted by Hamas. This event took place on October 10, 2023. (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Biden confirms that American citizens are among the hostages held by Hamas and reports that 14 Americans have been killed in the attacks on Israel. A top defense official expressed concern on Monday regarding Hezbollah's potential decision to escalate the conflict by engaging in a second front. The official emphasized that efforts are being made to work collaboratively with Israel and regional partners to limit the impact of the conflict to Gaza.

Hezbollah, a well-equipped and proficient military force, receives support from Iran. If they were to engage in the conflict, it would indicate a substantial escalation. However, experts and former officials suggest that Hezbollah is not inclined to participate in the war due to the significant risks outweighing any potential benefits for the group.

Additionally, US officials have been urging Hezbollah to avoid involvement in the conflict. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has further sent a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean as a clear message to Hezbollah and its supporters in Iran, cautioning them against entering the war.

"We did not relocate the carrier for Hamas," clarified national security advisor Jake Sullivan during a press briefing at the White House on Tuesday. "The purpose behind moving the carrier was to convey a strong deterrent message to other states or non-state actors that may have intentions of escalating this conflict."

President Joe Biden reiterated this message during his remarks on Tuesday from the White House.

Analysts say Hezbollah support for Hamas has been symbolic so far

Hezbollah has extended congratulations to Hamas for their extensive attack on Saturday. They have also engaged in limited rocket exchanges with Israel, including launching rockets into Israel on Tuesday. However, experts believe these attacks are more of symbolic support rather than a signal for a full-scale military operation.

Furthermore, the Lebanese economy is deteriorating rapidly, and engaging in a destructive and violent war with Israel would only exacerbate the situation. This would pose a significant political risk for Hezbollah, as they hold seats in the Lebanese parliament and claim to represent the interests of all Lebanese people.

Still, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has already increased its troop presence along the border with Lebanon in response to the potential threat. After recent clashes in the disputed region, tens of thousands of additional troops have been added, as reported by IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus.

Hamas launched a salvo of rockets from Gaza towards the Israeli city of Ashkelon, October 10, 2023.

Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images

Israel strengthens its military presence at the Gaza border following a series of rocket attacks by Hamas on Ashkelon. The situation escalated further as Israel carried out airstrikes in Lebanese territory in response to anti-tank missiles being launched at an IDF post near the Lebanese border. In retaliation for the killing of three Hezbollah members on Monday, the group claimed responsibility for firing "guided missiles" at an Israeli site.

The group also offers passive military assistance by diverting Israel's troops to the northern border and dividing their missile defenses, according to Mike Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute specializing in Iran-backed proxy groups.

Norm Roule, a former national intelligence manager at Iran for the CIA, mentioned during an intelligence conference last weekend that if you're Lebanese Hezbollah, it would be logical to avoid getting involved in this conflict. Ideally, you would let the Israelis and Hamas exhaust themselves fighting each other, leaving you as the dominant force.

Hezbollah is not particularly invested in Gazas fate, former CENTCOM Commander Frank McKenzie told CNN on Tuesday.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a televised address to the nation on October 9, 2023.

Israeli Government Press Office

The Hamas attack catastrophe is a major setback for Prime Minister Bibi, who is already facing numerous challenges.

"I anticipate that there may be minor incidents in Lebanon, similar to what we have seen before, where small-scale attacks occur reciprocally - sufficient to maintain both sides' sense of honor," stated McKenzie. "However, one thing that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is well aware of is that if he were to initiate any aggression, Israel would respond vigorously and inflict severe damage on them, just as they are currently intending to do in Gaza."

Roule emphasized the importance of the US displaying "some humility" when making definitive evaluations regarding the potential for the conflict to extend beyond Israel's borders. CNN was informed by McKenzie and Knights that Hezbollah's analysis might alter if it perceived a noteworthy deterioration in Israel's political or military strength in light of its response to the attack.

"We could potentially witness Lebanese Hezbollah being provoked if Israel becomes entangled in Gaza," Knights stated. At present, however, Knights highlighted that Hezbollah is actively engaging with the Lebanese populace in an effort to convey their intentions of avoiding any escalation into a full-fledged war.

"That tells you something about them," Knights said. "They are hesitant to mortgage their entire future on this."