Haley's Ascension: A Potential Challenge to DeSantis as the Next Trump Alternative

The focal point in the GOP presidential race for the next few weeks is not whether someone can close the wide gap between Donald Trump and his competitors, but rather if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley can outshine each other enough to create a true one-on-one competition with the former president.

The answer to this second question will likely provide valuable insight into the first. Within the party, it is widely acknowledged that all candidates face substantial obstacles in overtaking the current front-runner. Nevertheless, many Republican strategists who are now skeptical of Trump perceive the race as a staircase-like progression: before any other candidate can truly challenge Trump, they argue that he or she must accomplish what his 2016 opponents could not - clearing the field to establish a binary choice with him.

Tom Rath, a former New Hampshire state attorney general and GOP strategist who has been active in every primary since 1964, emphasized the necessity of having a singular strong challenger rather than multiple contenders. According to Rath, the more fragmented the field remains, the more advantageous it is for Donald Trump.

Throughout the year, many Republicans believed that DeSantis had the best chances of becoming Trump's main competitor. Even now, GOP strategists who support the Florida governor argue that he is still the only alternative with the widespread support within the party and the necessary national campaign infrastructure to effectively challenge Trump.

However, numerous GOP strategists think that DeSantis faces difficulties in establishing a connection with voters. By strictly aligning himself with Trump's platform, DeSantis may have inadvertently created an opportunity for Haley to surpass him. It is believed by some Republicans that Haley has already achieved this to some extent, mainly because she now seems to have a more promising route than DeSantis in New Hampshire and South Carolina. These two states are crucial early indicators following the Iowa caucuses, which DeSantis has prioritized.

With about two months remaining until the first contest on the GOP calendar, all signs point to the initial phase of candidate elimination already taking place. Recent polls, both national and in battleground states, indicate that DeSantis and Haley have emerged as frontrunners, setting themselves apart from the other contenders vying for Trump's endorsement. "They are now leading the pack," stated Alice Stewart, a CNN political commentator with experience in multiple GOP presidential campaigns.

A notable indication of this separation is evident in a 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, which surveyed likely Republican primary voters who watched the debate last week. More than half of the viewers expressed their consideration of voting for Haley or DeSantis, while only a quarter said they were even contemplating the other three candidates who participated in the debate -former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Scott withdrew from the race on Sunday.

Content has been

Haley is now seen as a stronger option than DeSantis within the party, not due to significant changes in national polling where she still typically trails behind Trump in second place, but because of their positioning in the first three major contests - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

DeSantis is adopting a strategy similar to other recent GOP presidential candidates who focused on social issues and leaned heavily towards the right. Taking inspiration from campaigns of Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016, DeSantis is placing his bets on a strong performance in Iowa. Following the footsteps of his predecessors, DeSantis has tirelessly campaigned in Iowa, prioritized building a campaign organization there, and placed great importance on gaining support from evangelical Christians in the state. DeSantis has garnered significant backing from local elected officials, including the recent endorsement of Gov. Kim Reynolds, and is likely to receive endorsements from prominent religious conservatives in the state.

Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz each won Iowa using variations of a certain model, but none of them were able to win the nomination. Once they were categorized as the candidates of evangelical social conservatives in Iowa, they struggled to gain support in states where these voters were not the dominant faction within the GOP electorate. This became evident in New Hampshire, where their momentum from Iowa faded away, as none of them received more than 12% of the vote. In New Hampshire, only about one-fourth of GOP voters identify as evangelicals, which is about half the percentage in Iowa. Ultimately, none of these past three Iowa winners managed to win more than a few states or come close to defeating the front-runner in their respective primary races (John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump in 2016).

Haley's campaign believes that DeSantis has put himself on a similar dead-end path. "Even if DeSantis were to perform well in Iowa, which is uncertain given his current decline, it wouldn't matter because he is in such a weak position in New Hampshire and South Carolina," argued Haley's campaign in a memo released to reporters last week. "He has no way to succeed." Notably, Haley's campaign, indicating an improved position, announced this week that it will launch a $10 million advertising campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, having only spent just over $100,000 on advertising in those states so far. (A super PAC supporting Haley has made larger ad purchases.) This significantly surpasses the advertising purchases announced by DeSantis' campaign, even though he also has the support of a super PAC.

Many non-affiliated GOP strategists and operatives believe that Haley has more room for growth in New Hampshire and South Carolina compared to DeSantis. Recent polls in both states, including a CNN/SSRS survey conducted in her home state of South Carolina, indicate that she has approximately one-fifth of the vote, which is roughly double the support DeSantis receives.

Both Ayres and Rath suggest that the New Hampshire electorate is likely to be more favorable towards Haley than DeSantis. The poor performances of Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz follow a longstanding trend of New Hampshire GOP voters rejecting socially conservative candidates - even George W. Bush experienced a loss there in 2000.

Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire and author of "Stormy Weather," stated in an email that even if DeSantis does well in Iowa, it would be because he aligned himself with Trump's views on abortion and gained support from conservative evangelicals. However, Scala believes that this anti-abortion message does not resonate with voters in New Hampshire. On the other hand, Haley's message of seeking consensus on abortion is expected to appeal to GOP women and college-educated Republicans in the state. While Haley personally identifies as pro-life, she acknowledges that passing a national abortion ban is not realistic at the federal level due to a lack of votes in Congress.

Similar to McCain, who won New Hampshire in his 2000 and 2008 presidential campaigns, Haley is likely to benefit from the significant number of independent voters who can participate in the primary. Current polls indicate that independents in New Hampshire are more inclined to support Haley over DeSantis. Rath, a political consultant, compares DeSantis' underperformance to a quote from the character Linus in Peanuts, stating that high potential can sometimes be a burden. As DeSantis falls short, it provides an opportunity for Haley to gain support.

After New Hampshire, South Carolina is historically the most significant contest on the GOP calendar. Since 1980, the candidate who wins South Carolina usually goes on to secure the nomination, with the exception of 2012 when Newt Gingrich won South Carolina but lost to Romney. As a former governor of the state, Haley has an advantage over DeSantis. According to Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina GOP, Haley has greater potential than DeSantis if they both remain viable after the initial contests. Stroman argues that Haley's support in South Carolina is consistently higher than it initially appears.

For those who believe that Haley is surpassing DeSantis as Trump's main rival, these developments serve as evidence of both tactical missteps by the Florida governor and a fundamental strategic miscalculation. Critics argue that DeSantis' attempts to attract Trump supporters by consistently positioning himself to the right have alienated the portion of the party that seeks to move on from Trump. According to Stroman, DeSantis should have focused on consolidating support from those who want to distance themselves from Trump and Trumpism before targeting the more resistant group.

Ayres divided the GOP electorate into three factions: the steadfastly loyal Trump supporters, the vehemently anti-Trump group, and the group that initially supported Trump but now seeks an alternative due to the chaotic environment surrounding him. DeSantis has attempted to appeal to the unwavering Trump supporters, but they remain loyal for a reason. On the other hand, Nikki Haley understands that her task is to consolidate the group of voters who previously supported Trump but desire a different style and temperament.

Supporters of DeSantis argue that Haley has constrained herself. They believe that her rise in popularity is primarily due to her appeal to the more moderate and well-educated voters in Ayres' anti-Trump camp. However, they argue that her positions, such as advocating for a more aggressive foreign policy and downplaying the importance of abortion, will hinder her ability to connect with the "maybe Trump" group of voters who still sympathize with his agenda, albeit not his demeanor. Notably, DeSantis' advertisements criticizing Haley portray her as insufficiently aligned with the MAGA movement, with some false claims, like her alleged support for admitting refugees from Gaza.

DeSantis allies argue that the Florida governor has a better chance of winning over "Make America Great Again" voters in today's GOP who may have mixed feelings about Trump. They believe that Haley's approach may appeal to the pre-Trump party but will clash with the prevailing views in the GOP coalition that he has transformed.

This argument supports the core theory of DeSantis' campaign: by beginning on the right, it will be simpler for him to attract centrist factions of the party compared to Haley (or any other candidate) trying to court the right after starting in the center.

Scala believes that the calculation is likely accurate. Although any plan to overthrow Trump is unlikely to succeed, he is skeptical that Haley's stance on issues will attract enough "soft Trump" supporters to defeat him, even in a head-to-head competition.

GOP strategist Mike Murphy, who has emerged as a strong critic of Trump, holds a contrasting view. According to Murphy, Haley has the potential to form a larger coalition than DeSantis in the primary. This is partly due to consistent polls showing her as the most formidable GOP candidate against President Joe Biden. "She has what it takes to win," Murphy asserts, while referring to DeSantis as a lesser version of Trump.

It is important to note that the competition between Haley and DeSantis may only be remembered as a minor historical event if neither can gain substantial support from Trump. Recent developments have further highlighted the challenging task that lies ahead for both candidates in this regard.

Haley's potential to stop Trump has gained support with a recent Iowa poll where she ties with DeSantis for second place. If she surpasses DeSantis in Iowa, it could create a surge of momentum for her, leading to increased national support.

An example of this type of rapid growth is seen in the 1984 Democratic Primaries when Senator Gary Hart secured a surprising second-place finish in Iowa and went on to win in New Hampshire, sparking a nationwide wave of support. Despite eventually losing the nomination, Hart stayed neck-and-neck with the frontrunner Walter Mondale until the final weekend of the contest in June.

However, Haley's chances of securing second place in Iowa were dealt a blow when the popular governor endorsed DeSantis. Even if DeSantis finishes ahead of Haley in Iowa, many believe that she would still perform better than him in New Hampshire, especially if GOP Governor Chris Sununu endorses her. Yet, if Haley ends up in third place or lower in Iowa, her ability to generate enough momentum to surpass Trump in New Hampshire diminishes. This could also make it challenging for her to defeat Trump in her home state of South Carolina. On the other hand, if DeSantis underperforms in New Hampshire, as is expected based on current trends, he may face difficulties similar to Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz in recovering sufficiently in South Carolina.

Supporters of DeSantis argue that he is preparing for a long-lasting campaign beyond the initial states. However, in the modern era of primaries, no one has won the GOP nomination without winning at least one of the first contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Haley is also facing a similar urgency: even if she establishes her viability by finishing third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, she would still need to come in first in South Carolina to truly challenge Trump. "You have to defeat him somewhere," Ayres stated, "and if you can't defeat him in your own state, it's difficult to argue that you are the strongest contender."

While Haley and DeSantis currently focus on competing against each other, they will eventually need to take action, such as presenting a compelling argument during a debate or winning an early primary, to persuade a significant number of GOP voters currently supporting Trump to reconsider. Their opportunity to do so is running out as time goes on. "As Yogi Berra used to say," Rath pointed out, "it's getting late early out here."