Growing Superpower Rivalry in the Arctic: An Opinion

Editors Note: Frida Ghitis, a world affairs columnist and former CNN producer and correspondent, shares her own views in this commentary. There is an otherworldly quality to the Arctic, particularly during the long Polar Night when the sun remains below the horizon for months, casting the region into uninterrupted darkness punctuated by periods of ethereal twilight.

Frida Ghitis

CNN

On cloudless nights, one can see the Aurora Borealis dance across the vast skies, its swirling greens and blues contrasting with the stark white of the endless expanses of snow.

However, in the Tromsø harbor, located in the northernmost part of Norway, the natural scenery is interrupted by the presence of a Norwegian Navy frigate in metallic military grey. This serves as a stark reminder that the Arctic is not immune to the global tensions affecting the rest of the world.

Moreover, the temperatures in this region are increasing at a rate almost four times faster than the global average, and that's just based on thermometer readings. When it comes to geopolitics, the coldest region on the planet runs the risk of becoming the hottest.

During a recent address to the Arctic Council, Admiral Rob Bauer, the head of NATO's Military Committee, cautioned against ignoring the potentially malicious intentions of certain actors in the region. He also emphasized that conflict could arise at any time and in any area, including the Arctic.

That was not an exaggeration. The rapid increase in militarization in the region, driven by heightened international tensions, is adding to the efforts to capitalize on the strategic and economic opportunities in the Arctic. The melting ice is also leading to the emergence of new shipping routes and the accessibility of natural resources, further increasing the appeal of gaining strategic control over the Arctic.

A Norwegian Navy frigate looms large in Tromsø harbor, in the northernmost reaches of the country, as captured by CNN Opinion columnist Frida Ghitis.

Frida Ghitis

Located a few hundred miles from the port of Tromsø, the Kola Peninsula in Russia is home to the country's Northern Fleet, consisting of ballistic missile submarines, cruisers, destroyers, frigates, troop concentrations, airfields, and other military assets near NATO's border. Over the past weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a thinly veiled threat to Finland, one of eight Arctic countries and NATO's newest member, warning of potential "problems" between the two countries now that Helsinki has joined the alliance. Putin stated that Russia will soon be concentrating military units near the northern part of the two countries' shared frontier.

Recently, Finland closed its border with Russia, accusing Moscow of conducting a "hybrid operation" by exploiting desperate migrants to reach the chilly European border in the Arctic, in an attempt to destabilize the European Union.

In a statement to state media, Putin insisted that the two countries had no issues before Finland joined NATO, as they had resolved their territorial disputes in the 20th century. However, Finland recalls the resolution involved a Russian invasion and the brutal Winter War of 1939-1940, which resulted in Russia taking control of parts of Finland.

When Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Finland decided neutrality did not guarantee safety. It needed the protection of joining NATO.

Frida Ghitis

Since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022, tensions along the Arctic have significantly escalated, prompting Finland to reconsider its neutrality and seek the protection of joining NATO. However, these mounting troubles have been brewing for quite some time.

For decades, the region at the top of the globe has been seen as a unique place where global superpowers could unite for the greater good. The Arctic Council has been considered a successful example of coexistence, established in 1996 during a period of improved relations between post-Soviet Russia and the West. The organization, consisting of eight Arctic countries and indigenous peoples, including Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the US, aims to uphold peace, stability, and sustainable development while protecting the region.

By the end of the century, relations with Russia and later with China, whose emerging role in the region is now apparent, turned sour. Looking back, some observers claim that Russia took advantage of the perception of Arctic "exceptionalism" and publicly promoted peaceful cooperation while secretly increasing its military presence.

In October 2021, Russia assumed the rotating chairmanship of the Council. Nicolay Korchunov, a high-ranking Russian Arctic official, outlined Moscow's plans while speaking at the annual Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik, Iceland. He explained that during Russia's chairmanship, they would prioritize fostering constructive cooperation and maintaining peace and stability.

However, a few months later, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to the freezing of the Arctic Council's work and raised uncertainty about its future.

This image provided by the U.S. Navy shows the USS Carney in the Mediterranean Sea on Oct. 23, 2018.

Ryan U. Kledzik/US Navy/AP

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Shortly after, Russia increased its military and commercial presence in the region. Disregarding environmental safety standards, Russia began using thin-hulled oil tankers instead of ice-class ones to transport crude oil across the region. The potential impact of a major oil spill on this pristine region is a cause for concern.

During a summit in March, Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to prioritize the Arctic, signaling a new challenge to the West. Reports indicate that China has poured $90 billion into the region.

Collaborating, Moscow and Beijing aim to construct a "Polar Silk Road" with economic, geopolitical, and military goals. China is making a bold push to establish itself as a key player in the region, asserting its status as a "near-Arctic state."

Admiral Bauer of NATO finds the situation concerning, as Russia's intentions in the Arctic have become clear while China's remain unclear. Moscow has expressed disapproval of NATO's eastward expansion and the possible accession of Finland and Sweden into the alliance would leave Russia as the only Arctic nation outside of NATO.

Russia successfully deceived its Arctic neighbors, but its invasion of Ukraine exposed its true intentions. According to Norways Deputy Defense Minister Anne Marie Aanerud, the peace in Norway has been disrupted by the events, leading to increased military visits from NATO in response to Russias aggressive actions.

Residents of Tromsø were surprised to witness the emergence of a French Navy submarine from the waters in September. Shortly after, a US submarine also made an appearance in the area. Aanerud mentioned a previous Russian military exercise that seemed to simulate cutting off the Scandinavian peninsula a few months prior.

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In response, Scandinavia will soon host the enormous "Nordic Response" military exercise, with participation of some 20,000 troops from 14 countries.

Rewritten

The Arctic, situated in the extreme northern latitudes, offers dramatic landscapes, unique atmospheric phenomena, and untouched natural surroundings. It may appear to be a safe haven from the tumultuous issues of the planet, but it is very much a part of this world. The global turbulence is reaching the top of the Arctic, and tensions in the High North are expected to rise even as some of today's conflicts diminish in prominence.