Explosive Revelations: How Republican Obstruction and Slovakia's Election Fuel Putin's Agenda

Republicans, opposed to the US funding Ukraine in their struggle against Russia, achieved a significant victory when House Speaker Kevin McCarthy omitted a $6 billion aid request from a temporary bill, preventing a government shutdown.

This outcome pleased Russian President Vladimir Putin and left President Joe Biden urging swift action to meet Ukraine's urgent needs. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky now faces additional concerns due to shifts in global politics that have favored Moscow's efforts to outlast the West in the ongoing war in Ukraine. While Biden indicated a potential agreement with McCarthy to provide separate assistance for Ukraine, the Republican speaker's office did not confirm any such arrangement.

The drama in the US coincided with another troubling development for Ukraine over the weekend. In Slovakia, the parliamentary elections resulted in the victory of former pro-Russia Prime Minister Robert Fico's populist party. Fico's campaign centered around his opposition to the US, his promise to halt weapons exports to Ukraine, and his determination to hinder Kyiv's aspirations to join NATO.

Furthermore, Ukraine faced additional setbacks in its relationship with Poland due to a dispute over grain exports. Poland, a long-standing and steadfast ally of Kyiv, issued a warning that it might cease armament deliveries to Ukraine as a result.

The increasing involvement of arms and aid in the national elections of Western countries poses a growing threat to Ukraine. If Western leaders and legislatures show any hesitation in providing military support to Ukraine, it will only encourage Putin to prolong the conflict as a war of attrition. This strategy relies on Western publics becoming fatigued and the possibility of leaders like ex-President Donald Trump coming to power and abandoning Kyiv.

The headlines are causing alarm in Ukraine. Although international political dynamics imply that there is still time for the pipeline of arms and aid that supported Ukraine's courageous defense against Russia, the political landscape might be changing, raising significant long-term worries for Kyiv.

A potential propaganda coup for Putin

In a swing towards populism and nationalism, Ficos SMER party triumphed in Slovakia's parliamentary elections on Saturday. This aligns with the trend that led to the victories of Trump, Brexit, and far-right parties in France and Germany. Despite the victory, Fico issued a warning, stating that Slovakia and its people face more pressing issues than Ukraine, and he intends to prioritize peace talks.

As a NATO member, Slovakia previously stood as a staunch supporter of Ukraine. However, turning against its neighbor would provide Putin with advantageous propaganda opportunities. Nevertheless, Slovakia lacks the authority to initiate negotiations. Moreover, there are currently no indications that Ukraine is prepared to engage in talks due to its ongoing offensive, and it is uncertain whether Putin has any political or strategic motives to do so. Additionally, Fico must address the task of building his own coalition before making decisions regarding Ukraine's policies.

The Slovakian decision to cease arms shipments to Ukraine is unlikely to significantly impact the conflict in favor of Russia. While Slovakia did provide Kyiv with older Soviet MiG jets and other equipment, these contributions were overshadowed by the much larger support from other European powers and the United States.

Although the threat of blocking Ukraine's entry into NATO may seem concerning, the recent NATO summit made it clear that Kyiv's membership in the Western alliance is not imminent. Even before the Slovakian election, securing unanimous support from all alliance members for Ukraine's eventual membership was already a challenging task. For example, Turkey is currently blocking the accession of Sweden, which is a significantly less controversial new member of the alliance.

Slovakia may have a significant number of voters with pro-Moscow sentiments due to its past as part of Czechoslovakia in the Warsaw Pact era under Soviet control. However, as a member of NATO, it relies on the alliance - and ultimately, the US - for its defense. Additionally, its economy is dependent on its membership in the European Union. This gives the West considerable influence in Bratislava.

Geopolitical factors may also play a crucial role in Poland's dispute with Ukraine. Many analysts predict that tensions will decrease following an intense election later this month. Poland's opposition towards Russia and its aim to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine stem from a long history of bitter political conflicts, unlikely to be weakened by changing political winds. Moreover, Poland's stance is vital to its growing significance as one of the United States' key European allies.

The GOP tide against Ukraine gathers strength

The visit of Zelensky to Washington in order to bolster Ukraine aid last month appears to have been foresighted. However, following a tumultuous week, it has become evident that securing future installments of US assistance will be considerably more challenging for the Biden administration to navigate through Congress.

McCarthy, who is facing uncertainty as Speaker of the House, successfully pushed through a temporary spending bill to prevent a government shutdown until mid-November. However, this bill does not include the $6 billion in funding for Ukraine that the Senate had hoped to add. This funding only constitutes a quarter of Biden's recent Ukraine aid request. While Ukraine will not be immediately endangered on the battlefield, a longer delay could lead to serious consequences. Politically, it may empower Putin and generate doubts among allied European leaders about the US commitment to the war, as they need to manage public opinion while standing firm. Some of Ukraine's strongest supporters in Congress were greatly disappointed. According to Democratic Representative Mike Quigley of Illinois, "Putin is celebrating," and he does not foresee any changes in the situation within the next 45 days. As the co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, he was the only House Democrat to vote against the temporary measure.

House Republican conservatives, some of whom are threatening to oust McCarthy for relying on Democratic votes to temporarily maintain current government spending levels, are mostly against providing further assistance to Ukraine. Among them are Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a staunch Trump supporter, who stated on social media on Saturday that "Joe Biden treats Ukraine as if it were the 51st state," after previously warning that additional funding for Kyiv would be considered "blood money."

Ukraine remains unperturbed by the disruption to its most recent infusion of aid in a multi-billion-dollar initiative, which is crucial to its ongoing war efforts. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that his country is actively collaborating with the US Congress on this matter.

"We do not believe that US support has been completely eroded, as the US comprehends the greater implications of the situation in Ukraine. It goes beyond Ukraine itself, involving the stability and predictability of the global order. Consequently, I am confident that we will identify the required solutions," stated Kuleba.

Zelensky faces a risk where this rhetoric may cement the perception among voters that American and Ukrainian interests are in conflict. At Republican campaign gatherings, voters frequently express reluctance towards providing substantial financial aid to Ukraine, and surveys indicate growing public doubt.

There is currently a bipartisan majority in Washington that supports providing aid to Ukraine. However, the chaos within the GOP raises concerns about how the aid will be delivered. On Sunday, Biden suggested that he had a deal with McCarthy to move the funds in a separate bill, but there are doubts about whether the speaker is capable of fulfilling any promises. "I expect the speaker to uphold his commitment in securing the necessary passage and support to assist Ukraine in defending against aggression and brutality," stated the president.

McCarthy proposed that by also allocating more money to secure the southern US border, it may pave the way for funds to be sent to Ukraine. "If the border is not secure, they will not receive any package," the speaker stated on CBS "Face the Nation" on Sunday. "I support ensuring Ukraine has the necessary weapons, but I firmly prioritize securing the border. Therefore, we must find a way to accomplish both."

If McCarthy is replaced by a more radical speaker, Ukraine could face unfavorable circumstances. It is essential to consider the upcoming US elections in November 2024. Trump, who is currently leading among Republicans, has made a promise to resolve the war within 24 hours if he becomes president. This pledge seemingly implies terms that would benefit Putin, whom he has praised as a "genius" and shown deference to on numerous occasions.

And Ukraines would not be the only future on the line. A second Trump term could pose an existential threat to NATO and the entire post-World War II and Cold War concept of the West.