Explosive Revelation: Groundbreaking Forensics Challenge Initial Claims of Israeli Airstrike in Gaza Hospital Blast, Unveiling a Shocking Twist

Following the devastating blast that occurred at the crowded Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City, resulting in the tragic loss of numerous Palestinian lives, conflicting allegations regarding responsibility between Palestinian militants and the Israeli government continue to persist. However, by conducting forensic analysis of publicly accessible imagery and footage, significant insights have started to emerge regarding the cause of the explosion.

By thoroughly examining numerous videos shared on social media platforms, televised live broadcasts, footage captured by a freelance journalist working for CNN in Gaza, and satellite imagery, CNN has meticulously reconstructed the sequence of events surrounding this incident, aiming to provide an extensive understanding of the situation.

Accessing the site and gathering evidence from the ground is crucial for reaching a definitive conclusion. However, based on CNN's analysis, it is suggested that a rocket launched from Gaza disintegrated in midair, causing an explosion at the hospital complex. Expert weapons and explosive analysts, who have extensive experience in assessing bomb damage, have reviewed the visual evidence and believe this to be the most probable scenario. However, they caution that the absence of munition remnants or shrapnel at the scene makes it difficult to be completely certain. Nevertheless, all experts agree that the visible damage at the site does not align with an Israeli airstrike.

Israel claims that the explosion was caused by a rocket misfired by the militant group Islamic Jihad, a statement supported by US President Joe Biden according to US intelligence. However, a spokesperson for the National Security Council stated that analysis of various sources indicated that Israel was not responsible. Despite this, Palestinian officials and several Arab leaders accuse Israel of targeting the hospital during their airstrikes in Gaza. Islamic Jihad, a rival group to Hamas, has denied any involvement.

Wounded women and children sit on the floor at the Al-Shifa Hospital after being transported from the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital following a blast there on Tuesday, October 17.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has caused a surge in deceptive content and inaccurate statements on the internet. This misinformation, combined with the divisive nature of the war, has made it challenging to distinguish truth from falsehood.

Over the past few days, several media platforms have conducted investigations into the Al-Ahli Hospital blast. These investigations have yielded contrasting conclusions, highlighting the difficulties of conducting remote analysis. However, CNN's investigation goes a step further by providing a comprehensive review of nighttime footage of the explosion and distressing images of the casualties within the hospital complex. This endeavor aims to unveil undisclosed details about the blast, surpassing the information made public by Israel and the US.

A flash of light in the dark

Courtesy "Al Jazeera" - Gaza City, October 17

The night sky over Gaza was lit up with rocket fire on Tuesday evening, as seen in videos analyzed by CNN. At 6:59 p.m. local time, an Al Jazeera camera in western Gaza captured live footage of a rocket being fired from Gaza. The rocket traveled upwards, then suddenly changed direction and exploded, creating a brief but bright streak of light in the night sky above Gaza City. Shortly after, two blasts could be seen on the ground, including one at Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital.

CNN determined the origin of the rocket by analyzing the camera's position, revealing that it was fired from a location south of Gaza City. The hospital explosion was geolocated by CNN using nearby buildings west of the complex as reference points. CNN synchronized footage from a webcam in Tel Aviv, which was pointing south towards Gaza, with the Al Jazeera live feed. This combined footage showed a series of rockets being launched from Gaza shortly before the explosion occurred.

According to multiple weapons experts interviewed by CNN, the Al Jazeera video seemingly captured a rocket that ignited in the sky and ultimately crashed into the hospital grounds. However, due to the challenges associated with calculating the trajectory of a rocket that failed or changed direction mid-flight, these experts could not definitively establish a connection between the rocket and the hospital incident.

"I believe that this incident occurred due to a rocket malfunction, resulting in its disintegration while in the air. Consequently, the body of the rocket crashed into the car park. Subsequently, the remaining fuel ignited, causing a significant explosion that engulfed cars and other fuel at the hospital," stated Markus Schiller, an expert in missiles based in Europe who has provided analysis for NATO and the European Union, when speaking with CNN.

"However, I am unable to provide definitive confirmation. In the event of a rocket malfunction, the flight trajectory and behavior become unpredictable, making it difficult to rely on typical analysis that considers altitude, flight path, and burn time," he added.

Retired US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton, a former deputy director of the US National Security Agency and a CNN military analyst, stated that the aerial explosion indicated a rocket malfunction. He also noted that the streak of light observed was indicative of a rocket burning fuel in its attempt to reach altitude. Chad Ohlandt, a senior engineer at the Rand Corporation in Washington, DC, concurred, stating that the bright flash of light strongly suggested a malfunction in the solid rocket motor.

Speculation has arisen on social media regarding the possibility of Israel's Iron Dome defense system being responsible for the breakup of the rocket. However, experts have stated that there is no evidence of interception by another rocket, and Israel has denied using the system in Gaza.

At 7 p.m., the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, announced on its Telegram channel that they had bombarded Ashdod, a coastal city in northern Israel, with a substantial number of rockets. Shortly thereafter, the Al-Quds Brigades, the armed wing of PIJ, claimed on Telegram that they had launched attacks on Tel Aviv in response to what they referred to as the "enemy's massacre of civilians."

Another video recorded at night depicts the explosion. It seems to have been filmed from a balcony using a mobile phone and CNN has also determined its location. The footage features a distinct whooshing sound followed by a vibrant illumination of the sky, culminating in a considerable explosion.

From X - Gaza City, October 17

Two weapons experts who analyzed the video for CNN stated that the sound captured in the footage did not match that of a high-quality military explosive, such as a bomb or shell. They cautioned that the audio in the clip could be influenced by the use of a mobile phone, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. Another prominent acoustic expert from a US university, who could not publicly disclose their identity, examined the video's sound waveform and determined that although there were variations in the frequency, suggesting movement, no directional details could be ascertained.

Panic and carnage

The noise inside the hospital was overpowering. Dr. Fadel Naeem, the orthopedic department's head, mentioned being in the middle of surgery when the explosion reverberated throughout the premises. He recalled the ensuing chaos as panicked staff members rushed into the operating room, shouting for assistance and relaying news of numerous casualties.

Dr. Naeem, speaking in a recorded video to CNN, revealed the sequence of events following his completion of a surgery. He expressed shock upon hearing a loud explosion, assuming it originated from outside the hospital as he never anticipated an attack on the medical facility. Upon leaving the operating theater, Dr. Naeem was confronted with a distressing sight. The medical team immediately mobilized to attend to the injured and gravely ill, but the sheer scale of the destruction was profoundly overwhelming.

Dr. Naeem disclosed that this was not the initial occurrence of the hospital being targeted. According to him, on October 14, just three days earlier, the building had been struck by two missiles without any prior notification from the Israeli military.

"We initially assumed it was an accidental strike. However, the following day, the Israelis contacted the hospital's medical director and reprimanded them, stating 'We had warned you the day before, why haven't you evacuated the hospital yet?'. Consequently, numerous individuals and patients had already fled due to the fear that the hospital might face another attack," Dr. Naeem stated.

CNN was unable to verify the details of the October 14 attack as described by Dr. Naeem and has contacted the IDF for their response. The IDF has denied targeting hospitals, although both the UN and Doctors Without Borders have reported Israeli airstrikes hitting medical facilities, including hospitals and ambulances.

Although it is challenging to independently verify the exact number of casualties from the explosion, the devastation is evident in the images shared on social media. In these photos and videos, young children, covered in dust, are urgently brought in for medical treatment. Lifeless bodies can also be seen lying on the ground.

An unidentified local volunteer recounted the horrifying aftermath of the explosion at Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. Arriving at 8 a.m., he assisted in collecting the fragmented remains of the deceased. "We collected six bags filled with body parts," he revealed. "Among them was the remains of someone who could have been eight or nine years old. I have hands, feet, and fingers in this bag. It's heartbreaking to think that they had no possessions, not even a toothbrush, let alone a weapon."

Bodies of those killed in a blast at Al-Ahli Hospital are laid out in the front yard of the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on Tuesday, October 17.

A freelancing journalist affiliated with CNN based in Gaza conducted interviews with eyewitnesses and extensively filmed the aftermath of the explosion the next day. The footage includes a close-up of the impact crater, measuring approximately 3 feet by 3 feet and one foot in depth. The surrounding area showed signs of destruction, such as burnt vehicles, buildings with pockmarks, and shattered windows.

Analyzing the aftermath

According to eight weapons and explosive experts who analyzed CNNs video footage, the extensive surface damage and relatively small size of the crater do not align with the typical effects of an aircraft bomb. Such a bomb would be expected to cause significant destruction upon impact. Instead, the evidence suggests that a rocket could have been the cause of the explosion.

According to Marc Garlasco, a former defense intelligence analyst and UN war crimes investigator, the incident in Gaza's hospital was not an airstrike. He mentioned that even the smallest JDAM does not create a 3m crater. Chris Cobb-Smith, a British weapons expert, also ruled out a heavy air-dropped bomb based on the size of the crater observed in the imagery. He stated that the crater was not large enough compared to the bombs typically seen in the region.

According to an arms investigator, the evidence suggests that the impact was more in line with a rocket strike due to the presence of burn marks caused by residual rocket fuel or propellant, rather than resembling a typical artillery projectile. The investigator further stated that the ensuing fire following the explosion does not align with an artillery attack, although it cannot be completely excluded as a possibility.

According to some experts, the damage observed at the site, specifically to the burnt-out cars, does not indicate that the explosion was caused by an airburst fuze or artillery fire. Patrick Senft, a research coordinator at Armament Research Services (ARES), stated that if it were an artillery projectile with a point detonation fuse, he would have expected the cars' roofs to display significant fragmentation damage and the impact site to be deeper. Senft added that the observed crater appears to be considerably smaller than the typical size of a 152/155 mm artillery projectile detonation.

An explosives expert, currently employed in law enforcement and not authorized to speak to the media, suggests that the shrapnel from the projectile likely triggered the ignition of fuel and flammable liquid in the vehicles, resulting in a sizeable fireball. Such explosions pose a grave threat, especially to children and those who are vulnerable.

This experienced specialist, who has dedicated years to conducting forensic investigations in various conflict zones worldwide, further emphasizes that the damage observed at the crater site and the overall scene does not align with the typical damage caused by artillery shelling.

Without knowledge of the specific projectile causing the crater, it becomes challenging to infer its origin. Nevertheless, examining the debris and ground markings provides insight into potential scenarios.

Notably, there are dark patches extending towards the southwest from the crater. The trees situated behind the crater display signs of scorching, and a lamppost has been completely toppled. Conversely, the trees on the opposite side of the crater remain unharmed, retaining their lush green leaves.

This would be in line with a rocket's trajectory from the southwest, since rockets cause scorching and damage to the ground as they approach. However, if the projectile was artillery, these markings may indicate that it originated from the northeast, dispersing debris towards the southwest. Nevertheless, if the projectile experienced a malfunction and disintegrated in the air, as suggested by CNNs analysis, the direction of impact determined by the crater would not be a reliable piece of evidence.

Contrasting narratives

Israel has presented two opposing accounts regarding where the alleged Hamas rocket originated from.

According to Israeli officials, an audio recording has been released in which Hamas militants discuss the explosion and attribute it to a rocket launched by Islamic Jihad (or PIJ). The recording makes reference to a launch site located "behind the hospital cemetery". After analyzing satellite imagery from the days leading up to the attack, CNN found no visible signs of a rocket launch site in that area. However, CNN was unable to confirm the authenticity of the audio intercept.

The IDF has released a map indicating that the rocket was launched from a southwesterly direction, several kilometers away from the hospital. Although the map lacks specifics, it reveals a rocket launch site that aligns with a Hamas training site previously identified by CNN. Satellite imagery of the location shows some activity before the hospital explosion, but CNN cannot confirm if a rocket was actually launched from there. CNN has requested further information from the IDF regarding their map. Without an independent investigation and the collection of evidence from the site, it is highly unlikely that the party responsible for the blast can be determined.

Palestinians assess the aftermath of the explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital on Wednesday, October 18.

"The outcome heavily relies on the remnants discovered in the wreckage," stated Chris Cobb-Smith in an interview with CNN. "Although we can analyze footage and listen to audio, the conclusive answer will only come from the individuals or team who venture into the debris to uncover remnants of the munition." However, the presence of independent experts in that area will present difficulties due to the ongoing war and the imminent ground offensive by Israel in Gaza.

Marc Garlasco, a former defense intelligence analyst and UN war crimes investigator, has observed indications of insufficient evidence at the location of Al-Ahli Hospital.

"In my investigations of potential war crimes, my initial task is to locate and identify fragments of the weapon. These remnants provide crucial information on the perpetrator and the method employed. However, at this particular site, the absence of any physical evidence pertaining to the weapon is truly unprecedented. Throughout my two decades of investigating war crimes, I have always come across at least some remnants of a bomb. This is the first time I have observed a complete absence of weapon remnants. It is worth mentioning that I have been involved in investigating three wars in Gaza."

CNN footage obtained the day after the explosion reveals a significant volume of individuals moving through the area. There is a substantial risk that crucial evidence may be lost or tampered with amidst the turmoil and panic of warfare. Even prior to this conflict, independent investigators faced difficulties in accessing such sites. Cobb-Smith has previous experience investigating in Gaza and encountered obstacles in obtaining unrestricted access to the area. The local authorities exhibited reluctance and dissatisfaction when confronted with his attempts to explore an incident that they perceived as a failure.

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This report was contributed to by CNN's Teele Rebane, Eve Brennan, Yong Xiong, and Alex Marquardt. Visual editing was done by Henrik Pettersson, Marco Chacón, Carlotta Dotto, Emmalee Reed, and Victoria Fleischer.