Europe's Lack of Consistency is Holding Ukraine Back

The European Union's decision to initiate negotiations with Ukraine for joining the bloc on Thursday night marks a significant and symbolic milestone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had emphasized the importance of EU membership to Ukraine in discussions with European leaders leading up to this development.

However, the mood in Kyiv was dampened when the EU announced shortly afterwards that an agreement on providing a $55 billion tranche of new funding for Ukraine had not been reached.

This is a major setback for Ukraine, adding to months of concern among Ukrainian and European officials that the united support for Ukraine from the West since February 2022 was waning. While individual diplomatic moments are important, the overall context in which they occur is often more significant. The decision to begin accession talks with Ukraine sends a clear message to the Kremlin, but it is just one part of a larger picture.

In recent months, there has been a noticeable increase in Western fatigue toward Ukraine, especially with the Israel-Hamas conflict overshadowing the situation. The ongoing disputes over money in the US and Europe have only compounded the overall weariness felt by officials. It is within this context that the EU's announcements on Thursday must be understood.

While joining the bloc is a top priority, the complicated procedures of the EU suggest that the process could take over a decade and necessitates the end of war. This means that Ukraine during wartime may not have the opportunity to benefit from EU membership in the next decade. The difficulty in reaching the recent deal is a reminder that member states, particularly Hungary, may resist the accession process. Additionally, current net recipients of EU funds will be negatively impacted by Ukraine's membership, while net contributors will see an increase in their membership fee. Ultimately, despite European support for Ukraine, financial considerations hold significant weight in the EU.

The European Union's failure to reach an agreement on funding is currently posing a more pressing issue for Ukraine, as Kyiv is in urgent need of financial support to continue fighting the war. However, both the financial announcements and discussions about accession highlight the major political challenge for Ukraine in Europe: inconsistency.

Throughout Europe, officials have been emphasizing the critical need for consistency in supporting Ukraine. It is essential for Ukraine to have a clear understanding of the timing and amount of financial assistance it will receive. Moreover, Ukraine requires assurance of unwavering support from its key allies, as well as identification of any potential areas of weakness. Merely postponing the financial aid plan to the following year will not result in a shift in the views of those withholding support; instead, it is more probable that they will find alternative reasons to engage in political maneuvering.

The recent inconsistency of Ukraine's allies has had a detrimental effect on the country, favoring Russia in the zero-sum world of geopolitics. Diplomats and officials believe the situation can be reversed, but it will require consistent rhetoric and action. Although there were some positive developments on Thursday, they were overshadowed by the negative impact of Europe's inconsistency.