Egypt's President Poised for Third Term Amidst Global Focus on Gaza
Egypt's President, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, likely to win a third term in the upcoming election, amidst widespread criticism of the process As global attention remains on the devastating conflict in Gaza, voter turnout is predicted to be low
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is likely to win a third term in the upcoming Sunday presidential election, despite criticism that the election is not genuine. The global spotlight is currently on the violent conflict in Gaza, which may be contributing to a decreased focus on Sisi's authoritarian rule and his crackdown on dissent. Experts believe that Sisi's renewed diplomatic importance in the Israel-Hamas war has been a factor in the decreased criticism from Western allies.
Several high-ranking Western leaders, such as United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have visited Sisi since the war began.
Palestinians at the Rafah crossing on November 1.
Hatem Ali/AP
The Rafah crossing is the last hope for Gazans to escape the war. How does it function? According to HA Hellyer, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in London, Cairo has always been a crucial intermediary for the international community regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict.
"As the Israeli-Palestinian issue regained importance in many policy arenas, so did Cairo's geopolitical weight," Hellyer told CNN. He added that the international prioritization for good and comprehensive contact with Egypt has been renewed now that the Palestinian issue is prominently back in discussions.
Egypt controls the Rafah crossing, the only remaining link between the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by Hamas, and the outside world. Egyptian officials have mediated in previous conflicts between Israel and Hamas and maintain diplomatic ties with both sides. During the current conflict, Egypt has played a crucial role in delivering aid to Gaza and securing the release of some of the hostages held by Hamas since its militants attacked Israel on October 7, resulting in 1,200 deaths and more than 240 abductions.
Egypt has also played a role in assisting foreign nationals and injured Palestinians to flee the violence in Gaza. The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Ramallah, which draws on sources from the Hamas-controlled enclave, reports that more than 17,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza so far. Additionally, aid has been able to enter Gaza through Rafah.
Supporters of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi carry his posters during a march in Cairo, Egypt on October 2.
Amr Nabil/AP
Meanwhile, critics argue that Sisi is working to secure another term as president with little resistance domestically and internationally.
"The so-called elections are nothing more than a performance," stated Timothy Kaldas, deputy director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington, DC, pointing to the absence of any credible opposition to Sisi.
Upon overthrowing Mohamed Morsy, Egypt's only democratically elected president, in a military coup in 2013, the former field marshal ascended to power. Sisi won the presidential elections in both 2014 and 2018 with overwhelming support. His administration made constitutional amendments in 2019 to allow him to seek a third term in office.
Protesters wave Palestinian flags during a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Amman, Jordan on Friday.
Annie Sakkab/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Protests are erupting throughout the Middle East as Arab allies of the United States issue warnings against the displacement of Palestinians. "The significant violence in Gaza has allowed Sisi to redirect public attention away from their domestic issues and onto the situation, especially the Palestinians in Gaza," Kaldas explained. "Consequently, this has decreased the emphasis on their own internal struggles, especially their economic hardships."
Egypt has been emphasizing to its global allies for the past two months the crucial role it plays in facilitating humanitarian aid to Gaza, according to Kaldas. He mentioned that Egypt can showcase its effectiveness in negotiations and aid facilitation to demonstrate its significance.
In light of the crisis, Sisi has been eager to position himself as a strong supporter of the Palestinian cause. During a recent speech, the president reiterated his plea for a ceasefire and firmly rejected the idea of Palestinians being displaced from the Gaza Strip, emphasizing it as a non-negotiable boundary.
Egypt has come under intense criticism from critics and human rights groups in the past two months, with accusations of suppressing political dissent and silencing opposition candidates, while diplomats have been preoccupied with Gaza.
Former member of parliament, Ahmed el-Tantawy, who made an attempt to run as an opposition presidential candidate, addressed the media at a press conference hosted by Egyptian opposition parties in Cairo, Egypt, on October 13.
Ahmed el-Tantawy, a former lawmaker who was a leading potential challenger to Sisi, ended his campaign in October after facing restrictions on his supporters' ability to register their endorsements for him. He failed to meet the required number of signatures to run. The Egyptian National Elections Authority (NEA) denied el-Tantawy's claims, as reported by state media.
Three additional presidential candidates are in the running, but are not expected to have much support. These candidates include Farid Zahran, the head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party; Abdel Sanad Yamama, the nominee for the Wafd party; and Hazem Omar, the candidate for the Republican Peoples Party.
Last month, human rights organization Amnesty International reported that "genuine opposition candidates (were) barred from running" in the upcoming election, and criticized Egyptian authorities for arresting and interrogating at least 196 individuals for participating in unauthorized protests and other activities.
On December 11, 2017, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi participated in a press conference with his Russian counterpart at the presidential palace in Cairo. The two leaders held talks during the event. (Photograph by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images)
KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/AFP/Getty Images
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Fast Facts
Amnesty International also condemned Egypt's prosecution of el-Tantawy and his campaign members, stating that they are being targeted as a form of retaliation for exercising their political and freedom of expression rights. El-Tantawy has been accused of distributing election-related materials without authorization and his trial has been rescheduled for January 9th.
Amnesty International's Research and Advocacy Director for the Middle East and North Africa, Philip Luther, criticized the Egyptian authorities for their lack of tolerance for any form of dissent. He called on the country to lift restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly. The Egyptian government's foreign press center did not respond to CNN's request for comment.
No one will come out to vote
In the days leading up to the election, the streets of the capital, Cairo, were adorned with towering banners displaying Sisi's image. There has been a noticeable surge in security presence across the city, with police officers and checkpoints stationed at various squares, highways, and bridge entrances.
The Nations Future Party is actively supporting the pro-Sisi campaign with their banners reading "We are all with you" and "beloved of millions."
Despite the president's widespread election campaign, there is a noticeable sense of frustration among the public, particularly concerning economic grievances.
Magdy Gerges, a 50-year-old Egyptian driver, expressed that while economic difficulties are challenging, he values the sense of safety provided under Sisi's leadership. "I struggle with the cost of living, but Sisi offers something more vital than just food - the security of my daughters when they are out," Gerges shared with CNN. "At the end of the day, we can cope with our earnings, but what use is money without security?"
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi speaks during a press conference in Cairo, Egypt on November 24.
Gerges pointed out that, considering the region's precarious security situation, there are no other suitable alternative candidates for voters to consider.
"He said that even if we preferred a different candidate, we have no choice. Another citizen, who requested anonymity due to fear of reprisal from Egyptian authorities, raised concerns about the legitimacy of Sunday's election. They argued that polling stations would be empty since Sisi's victory is already certain."
The man expressed to CNN that there was no point in voting because the outcome was already known, calling the electoral process a farce. He also suggested that it would have been wiser to save the large amounts of money spent on the election in light of the challenging economic conditions. Additionally, Hellyer from the Carnegie Endowment noted that Cairo could potentially receive significant economic aid from foreign nations due to its involvement in the current crisis in Gaza.
At the World Government Summit 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is seen sitting alongside United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and other UAE officials on February 13.
Handout/Rashed Al Mansoori/UAE Presidential Court/Reuters
Gulf states have given billions in aid to Egypt. Now they want to see returns
Egypt is facing significant challenges in addressing its debt issues and averting an economic collapse, which experts believe will require structural reforms to resolve. Despite the support from its allies in the Persian Gulf in the past, recent criticism suggests that Egypt can no longer rely on unlimited financial assistance.
The country's economic difficulties persist, with high inflation and an unresolved foreign currency crisis. Furthermore, Egypt has not yet met the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $3 billion loan that was secured in December 2022 but has not yet been disbursed.
Kaldas from the Tahrir Institute predicts that the Egyptian pound will continue to decrease in value. Currently, the official exchange rate for the dollar is 31 Egyptian pounds, and if the government chooses to devalue the currency even more after the elections, it will result in increased inflation, greater economic struggles for individuals and businesses, and a spike in poverty. Kaldas emphasized that there is no foreseeable scenario in the near future that would not lead to further economic hardship for the average Egyptian.
The election takes place from December 10 to December 12. Results are expected by December 18.
