Ecuadorians vote in referendum as Noboa seeks support to combat crime

More than 13 million Ecuadorians are anticipated to participate in the upcoming referendum on Sunday. The focus of the referendum will be on security issues, which could have a significant impact on the political future of President Daniel Noboa and his strong stance against crime.

Noboa, who comes from a family of banana industry leaders, was elected as Ecuador's youngest president last November. He won the election by promising to address the high levels of crime that have turned the once peaceful country into a place marked by violence and disputes among drug cartels.

Since then, he has taken on a bold agenda by declaring “war” on over 20 criminal gangs that he has labeled as “terrorists.” He also imposed a 90-day state of emergency and approved a controversial raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito to capture a fugitive Ecuadorian former vice president accused of corruption.

According to experts, the upcoming vote on Sunday will provide insight into the level of public support for Noboa and the decisions he has made in the last six months. This vote could play a significant role in determining whether he will run for another term when his current one ends in May 2025.

The upcoming referendum in Ecuador will include a total of 11 questions. Five of these questions will involve potential modifications to the Constitution if they are approved, while the remaining six questions will be advisory in nature.

A significant number of Ecuador's population, over 13 million out of nearly 18 million, are eligible to participate in the voting process. It is important to note that in Ecuador, voting is compulsory for all eligible citizens.

Some of the key proposals in the referendum include allowing the military to work alongside the police in order to combat organized crime. Currently, this collaboration is only permitted under a state of emergency, which has a limited duration of 90 days. Additionally, there is a proposal to allow the extradition of Ecuadorian citizens, a practice that is currently prohibited by the Constitution. Furthermore, there is a proposal to increase the penalties for individuals who are convicted of violent crimes.

Noboa emphasized the need for urgent reforms to enhance security during a military event in March. He stressed that the process of reform can only be successful and sustainable if the National Police and Armed Forces receive the clear and firm support proposed in the upcoming referendum.

Ecuadorian soldiers search a neighborhood for illegal weapons during an anti-gang operation in Guayaquil on February 5.

Ecuadorian soldiers search a neighborhood for illegal weapons during an anti-gang operation in Guayaquil on February 5.

John Moore/Getty Images

Ecuador, known for the Galapagos islands and a tourist-friendly dollar economy, used to be called an “island of peace” as it was situated between the two biggest cocaine producers in the world, Peru and Colombia.

However, the country's strategic deep ports have made it a crucial stop for cocaine on its way to consumers in the United States and Europe. Various criminal groups are fighting to dominate these smuggling routes.

As a result, this violence is increasingly spilling over into the public domain in a brutal manner. According to data from the Ecuadorian National Police, the murder rate was 5.8 homicides per 100,000 people in 2016. By 2022, it had risen to 25.6, reaching levels similar to those seen in Colombia and Mexico, countries known for their history of drug cartel violence.

Ecuadorians were becoming increasingly unhappy with the worsening security situation, prompting Guillermo Lasso, the predecessor of Noboa, to announce a sudden election last year.

Noboa, who was relatively new to politics at the time, managed to win the election in a run-off vote. His strong stance on crime resonated with voters, especially after the assassination of anti-corruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio during a campaign event.

Just a few weeks into Noboa’s term, he had to declare a nationwide state of emergency. This was due to the security situation worsening dramatically. The trigger for this was the escape of the notorious gang leader Adolfo Macias, also known as Fito, from a prison in Guayaquil. Guayaquil is not only the biggest city in the country but also considered one of the most dangerous.

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To capture Fito after his escape, the government mobilized over 3,000 police officers and armed forces. Unfortunately, their efforts were in vain.

Criminal groups reacted by carrying out a series of violent attacks, such as seizing control of a TV station that was on air, to demonstrate their power and deter the crackdown.

Shortly after, Noboa made a bold move by declaring an "internal armed conflict" and instructing Ecuador's military to "neutralize" the members of over 20 gangs, which he identified as terrorist organizations.

"I declared war on terrorists," Noboa said in an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour. He explained that these are not ordinary gangs, but rather highly organized and armed terrorist groups that have had control over our nation's prisons in recent years.

Regarding the embassy controversy, Noboa did not provide any comments or statements on the matter.

Noboa showed his strong enforcement skills recently when he instructed the police to raid the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas. Glas was accused of embezzlement and had sought asylum at the embassy. He denies the charges, stating they are politically driven.

The raid at the embassy caused a stir globally because embassies are typically considered safe havens under diplomatic rules.

Mexico condemned the raid as a violation of international law and has cut off diplomatic relations. Many other Latin American nations have shown support for Mexico, and the United Nations has expressed worry.

On the contrary, Noboa insists he has no remorse for his actions, citing the security crisis in Ecuador as justification for his "necessary decisions." He believes he could not let a criminal evade punishment.

Customers eat in a darkened market square during a power cut in Quito, Ecuador, on April 18.

Customers eat in a darkened market square during a power cut in Quito, Ecuador, on April 18.

Karen Toro/Reuters

What else is on the agenda?

In a recent open letter, Noboa linked the embassy raid to the upcoming referendum, stating that "a vast majority of Ecuadoreans" would support his decision by voting.

CNN has reported that some experts believe the raid will boost Noboa's popularity.

It is uncertain whether support for Noboa will be affected by an energy shortage. This shortage has forced him to implement 8-hour power cuts across the country and shut down both private and public sectors for two days.

The crisis was triggered by low levels in reservoirs, as Ecuador heavily depends on hydropower. Despite lacking evidence, Noboa has accused "saboteurs" and initiated an investigation.

Beyond just security, the referendum also includes ideas like allowing companies to hire workers on hourly wages and recognizing international arbitration for investment disputes.

However, there are groups opposing the referendum, arguing that these issues could be addressed within the National Assembly.

All proposals can be approved or rejected individually.

Editor's P/S:

The upcoming referendum in Ecuador is a crucial moment for the country, as it will provide insight into the public's support for President Noboa's bold stance on crime. The referendum includes a wide range of proposals, from allowing the military to collaborate with police in combating organized crime to increasing penalties for violent crimes. The vote will likely have a significant impact on Noboa's political future and could potentially pave the way for another term in office.

The referendum is a reflection of Ecuador's increasing struggle with crime and violence, which has transformed the once peaceful country into a battleground for drug cartels. Noboa's "war" on over 20 criminal gangs, declared as "terrorists," has been met with both support and criticism. While some experts believe his actions have boosted his popularity, others question the legality and effectiveness of his approach. The raid on the Mexican embassy to capture a fugitive former vice president has further escalated tensions, with Mexico cutting off diplomatic relations and other Latin American nations expressing concern.