Eastern Europeans Investing in Western Real Estate Amid Heightened Tensions

Agnes Marciniak-Kostrzewa is constantly receiving phone calls. With 25 years of experience in the property business, she has been assisting Poles in purchasing homes on the southern coast of Spain. However, the recent months have been incredibly busy for her.

There are numerous reasons why individuals may choose to exchange the Baltic coast for the Mediterranean. After more than three decades since the end of communism, Poles are wealthier than ever. Many individuals who established businesses in the early 1990s are now considering retirement. Additionally, the shift to remote work brought about by the pandemic has allowed many to live more flexibly and opt for warmer climates.

Realtors are mentioning a new reason for their clients' interest in buying properties: Russia's war in Ukraine and concerns about the conflict spreading.

"I've noticed two surges in interest for property purchases. The first was right after the war started in February 2022, and the second has been ongoing since February 2024," shared Marciniak-Kostrzewa.

In recent weeks, the mood has grown darker as Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield, searching for weaknesses along the frontlines and launching airstrikes on Ukrainian cities. President Volodomyr Zelensky has cautioned that without military aid from the United States Congress, Ukraine risks losing the war.

The remarks of key Western figures have stirred concern in other parts of Europe's eastern border. Former US President Donald Trump stated in February that he would support Russia in doing "whatever they want" to NATO members who do not meet their financial obligations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also recently warned that Europe may be entering a "pre-war era."

Marciniak-Kostrzewa shared that following Trump's statement and Tusk's interview, they received numerous calls from people inquiring about purchasing property within a short timeframe and the duration of the key handover process.

In 2023, a record number of Poles purchased property in Spain, surpassing the previous record set in the previous year as reported by Polish outlet Bizblog.

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - APRIL 01: Ukrainian soldiers are seen at their base in Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on April 01, 2024. (Photo by Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Ukrainian soldiers stationed at their base in Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on April 1, 2024. (Photo by Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu/Getty Images

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Maria Ruiz Lopez, a notary who splits her time between Spain and Warsaw, has noticed a significant rise in demand for her services since the beginning of the year. Ukraine's parliament has decided to cancel demobilization plans in order to strengthen the military.

Many of our clients often express that their motivation for purchasing real estate is driven by fear. They fear the war, they fear Russia, and they seek a place where they can quickly seek refuge if necessary.

Some clients make hasty decisions out of panic. For example, last month a client bought a property to avoid being drafted into the Polish military. Another client, worried about the spread of war, recently purchased an apartment in Spain with the intention of renting it out but also keeping it available for immediate use if needed. When advised that evicting tenants takes time, the client decided to keep the apartment vacant, just in case of an emergency.

Wieslaw, a retired Pole in his 70s, is one of those who consider their investments when making purchases. The thought of war reaching Poland is a concern for him, as he sees it as a "black swan" event - a rare but impactful possibility. Despite the low probability, he feels the need to be prepared.

After hearing about the urgent displacement of Ukrainian citizens, who had to leave their homes with all their belongings in just an hour, Wieslaw realized that all his assets are in Poland. This prompted him to take action. Although he still resides in Warsaw, he decided to buy a small property in Andalucia, a region in southern Spain. The main reason behind this decision was the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Most people purchase a second home as a backup plan, especially those who are financially well-off. One Polish buyer, who preferred to keep their identity private, shared with CNN that the war was the main factor in their decision to make a quick purchase. As a father of two, he emphasized that the most crucial aspect for him and his wife was the assurance of having a second home for added security and peace of mind.

A woman hangs a sheet from an apartment balcony in Malaga, Spain.

A woman hangs a sheet from an apartment balcony in Malaga, Spain.

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Poles may have a unique situation. After experiencing an economic "miracle" following the Communist era, more Poles are now able to purchase second homes abroad. Additionally, due to its proximity to Ukraine and Belarus, Poles may feel a stronger need to do so.

Other Eastern European countries are also showing interest in buying properties in the West. For instance, Liivia Illak began her business 20 years ago, primarily selling expensive Spanish properties to clients from Estonia. However, this year she has seen a surge in requests, with many clients now seeking smaller properties.

Three months ago, Illak mentioned to CNN that he began receiving requests for very small apartments. People in Estonia are opting for smaller living spaces to avoid putting all their resources into one property. They prefer having a backup plan in case the situation worsens, ensuring they have a place to go if needed.

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister Alexander De Croo pictured during a press conference following a meeting between the Prime Minister and Ukrainian President, in Brussels, Wednesday 11 October 2023. Belgium's support for Ukraine and the role that Belgium will play within the F-16 coalition will be at the agenda.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister Alexander De Croo were seen together at a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday, October 11, 2023. The meeting discussed Belgium's support for Ukraine and the contribution that Belgium will make to the F-16 coalition.

The image captured during the press conference shows the two leaders engaged in discussions, highlighting the importance of collaboration between the two countries. Belgium's role in the coalition and its commitment to supporting Ukraine were key topics on the agenda.

The meeting between President Zelensky and Prime Minister De Croo signifies a strong partnership and demonstrates the shared goals and objectives of both nations. The cooperation between Belgium and Ukraine is crucial in addressing common challenges and working towards a more stable and secure future.

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She mentioned that despite being a member of NATO, there are many people who are extremely fearful. In addition to this, she has assisted Lithuanians in purchasing properties in Spain this year.

The increased demand for properties in Spain can be attributed to Russia's aggressive behavior, which has heightened fears among Europeans. Meanwhile, Europe seems indecisive when it comes to addressing its defense issues.

In Russia, Putin's control over the country has strengthened even further with his rule being extended for another six years through elections that were widely seen as unfair. This comes at a time when the opposition figure, Alexey Navalny, has passed away.

On the international front, Putin is causing uncertainty in Europe. Missiles meant for Ukraine have strayed into Polish airspace, while Belarusian troops, following orders from the Kremlin, have gathered at the border with Poland. Estonia has raised concerns about potential "shadow war" attacks on its territory. Additionally, in Lithuania, there was a violent attack on one of Navalny's associates, sending a message that not even their own country is safe.

He told CNN that it appears they are doing well. If people are justifying their lifestyle choices and decision to leave a country or region out of fear of World War III, a nuclear holocaust, or Russian tanks, then they have already succeeded in many ways.

Editor's P/S:

The article highlights the growing concern among Poles about the potential spread of the war in Ukraine to their country. This fear has led to a surge in demand for property purchases in Spain, particularly among those seeking a safe haven in case of an emergency. The article also discusses the broader geopolitical context, including Russia's aggression and the perceived indecisiveness of Europe in addressing its defense issues.

The situation in Eastern Europe is increasingly uncertain, with Russia's actions causing widespread anxiety. The article suggests that the war has become a "black swan" event, a rare but impactful possibility that is driving people to take precautionary measures. The purchase of property in Western countries like Spain provides a sense of security and peace of mind, allowing individuals to prepare for potential displacement or to have a backup plan in case of an escalation of the conflict.