Countering Russia's Potential Air Defense Domination: An Alert from Kyiv
Ukraine faces a relentless battle in the skies as Russia's evolving tactics push their air defenses to the brink With limited Western support, Kyiv grapples with the deadly consequences of each shoot-down, while civilian lives hang in the balance
High above the snow-covered skies of Ukraine, a dangerous conflict is unfolding. Russia kicked off the new year with a series of intense air assaults, including the most intense night of missile strikes since the start of the war. As Ukraine struggles to confront a changing threat with its limited supply of Western defense systems.
The January attacks in Russia have utilized a wide range of its aerial weapons, including cruise missiles, ballistic missiles originating near the Russian-Ukrainian border, hypersonic missiles, and slower drones. Sometimes, all of these have been used to target the same objective, as reported by Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak to CNN in Kyiv.
International analysts suggest that the barrage of Russian missiles, which have been stockpiled for months, is designed to overpower Ukraine's limited missile defense capabilities.
The new tactics have also been effective. As per the Ukrainian authorities, only 18 out of the 51 missiles fired at the country on January 8 were successfully shot down.
Some changes are simple: Russia has started painting its Iranian-made drones black, camouflaging them against the night sky.
Ukrainian firefighters attempt to extinguish a fire after a missile strike in Kyiv on January 2, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
According to members of a Ukrainian unit who spoke with CNN, the Russians have made their drones more sophisticated by moving the engine exhausts from the rear to the front. This is an effort to confuse anti-air batteries using thermal sights. Ukrainian media reports have also mentioned the threat of jet-powered drones replacing Russia's slower propeller-powered models, which officials have acknowledged as being on their radar.
According to the spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force command, Yurii Ihnat, a jet-powered version of the Iranian Shahed drones, which are favored by Moscow, would operate similarly to a mini cruise missile. He also stated that these drones are expected to have a smaller payload but much faster cruising speeds, possibly exceeding 500 kilometers per hour (311 miles per hour), making them more difficult to shoot down. Ukrainian officials have not yet verified if these drones have been deployed in Ukraine.
Smeta, a soldier stationed at a mobile air defense unit responsible for protecting the entry points to Kyiv, is seen undergoing training with a practice unit for the Stinger missile system made in the US. The unit revealed that some of the handheld US-manufactured missiles in their possession date back to the 1980s, which predates the birth of some of the soldiers in the unit.
Joseph Ataman/CNN
Every shoot-down is a victory
Soldiers conducted drills with a mobile air defense truck in a frozen field outside Kyiv, ready to fire within minutes of arrival. The Soviet-designed heavy machine gun may be unsophisticated, but when twinned with a thermal sight and a tablet displaying the image from that sight, it can effectively combat drones, according to squad commander Sgt. Maj. Vitaliy Yasinsky of Ukraine's Separate Presidential Brigade, as reported by CNN.
"Previously, they followed a straight path when flying, but now they move in a zigzag pattern. A drone has the ability to fly, circle, hover, descend, ascend up to half a kilometer, and make sharp downward movements. They are highly agile and need to be detected and eliminated," Yasinsky commented on the Iranian Shaheds.
During cloudy nights, the defenders may have to rely on their ears rather than their eyes to aim, listening for the distinctive sound of the Shaheds motor engine.
Ukraine is relying on small, mobile units like Yasinskys to safeguard civilians and critical infrastructure, particularly from slow-flying drones. Positioned within a network of advanced Western missile defense systems such as the American Patriot or German IRIS-T batteries, which are designed to intercept the fastest Russian missiles, these small teams offer a cost-effective and abundant defense for Ukraine's airspace.
Ukrainian air defense troops carry out drills with a Soviet-made anti-aircraft cannon outside Kyiv.
Ukrainian air defense troops informed CNN that they had unpacked crates of Western-donated hand-held Stinger anti-air missiles that date back to the Afghan mujahideen war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, which are decades older than some of the soldiers.
But theyre still grateful for the weapons.
In videos of Ukrainian air defense units downing drones or missiles, the joy in the soldiers voices is almost child-like.
Each successful strike not only protects Ukrainian lives and infrastructure, but also contributes to the depletion of Russia's resources. In January, US officials uncovered Russia's utilization of North Korean ballistic missiles in assaults on Ukrainian cities, indicating strain on Moscow's weapon stockpiles and domestic long-range production.
Ukrainian authorities are still analyzing debris from the latest strikes to discern the missiles origin.
Defenses stretched to the limit
According to Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of international security programs at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank, the recent series of Russian attacks was highly coordinated and well planned. The strikes involved the use of drones and individual missiles to scout Ukrainian defenses and identify vulnerabilities.
The focus is now on defense industry facilities being targeted. It is not officially admitted, but a significant percentage of these missiles have successfully hit their intended targets. He also pointed out that the interceptor missiles fired at Russian projectiles are highly effective. According to Melnyk, the Ukrainian air defense is operating at maximum capacity, often hitting over 70% of its targets and occasionally achieving a 100% success rate.
Destroyed cars are seen outside a shopping mall hit in a massive Russian missile and drone strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, on December 29, 2023.
Ukrinform/NurPhoto/Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Wednesday that his country is in dire need of more interceptor missile batteries in order to stop further missile attacks. He also mentioned that Ukraine currently lacks the capability to produce modern air defense systems with its partners.
In order to counter the Russian attacks, Ukraine must focus on taking out Moscow's border defenses, a difficult task considering Kyiv's limited access to long-range missiles and artillery systems. "Russia is adapting and sending missiles to locations where they cannot be intercepted," Melnyk explained.
Civilian deaths
According to Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, he told CNN that he believed Russia's air attacks now have a "genocidal component" compared to last winter. He expressed his opinion that civilian casualties are now a focus in Russian attacks on large cities. Russia has consistently denied targeting civilians.
The sight of Kyiv commuters packed into the city's subway system during the air raids in early January brought back painful memories of last winter's Russian onslaught from the air. While a small number of Ukrainians lost their lives in the attacks, the country is still recovering from the 33 people who were killed in Kyiv on December 29th. The strikes also resulted in the destruction of 100 houses and 45 high-rise buildings, according to the president of Ukraine.
Zelensky promised to retaliate and "bring the war" to Russia.
Even though there is a sense of satisfaction in thwarting Russia's air attacks and scoring hits, "Smeta," a soldier in an air defense unit near Kyiv, still feels the agony of every missile they are unable to take down.
"The most painful thing is that they are hitting civilians, houses, kindergartens," he told CNN. "This is not in line with the customs of war and not in line with human morality. It is immoral."
