Climate Summit in Dubai: A Crucial Opportunity to Overcome Global Setbacks
The world's climate summit in Dubai faces an uphill battle after a year of disappointing setbacks, including massive oil and gas projects, weakened climate policies, a surge in coal production, and fossil fuel companies neglecting green initiatives However, amidst the gloom, there are glimpses of hope
No region was spared from climate chaos this year. Canada experienced devastating wildfires, the US Southwest faced extreme heat, a Libyan city was destroyed by floods, and global temperatures reached unprecedented levels, as one scientist described as "gobsmackingly bananas." Climate records continued to fall, and it is almost certain that 2023 will be the hottest year on record.
Despite the climate crisis becoming a tangible part of people's lives, experts warn that there has been concerning regression in climate action this year. Green policies have been weakened, significant oil and gas projects have been approved, and coal has experienced a resurgence. Recent reports reveal that countries are significantly falling short of their goals to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Instead, the world is on track for a devastating 2.9-degree increase, even if current climate policies are adhered to, according to the United Nations Environment Programme.
Countries convening in Dubai for the UN's COP28 climate summit have "high expectations," according to Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at the nonprofit Climate Action Network International. However, he also noted a significant decrease in commitment from countries, describing it as "backtracking," in an interview with CNN.
Huge oil and gas projects approved
While the success or failure of global climate action cannot be determined by one year alone, according to Kaveh Guilanpour, vice president for international strategies at the non-profit Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, "the world is still not treating this as an emergency, and thats the fundamental problem."
2023 was a successful year for fossil fuels, with numerous significant projects being approved. This success occurred despite the IEA's warning two years ago that investing in new fossil fuel projects would hinder the world's ability to meet international climate goals.
According to Singh, any expansion of fossil fuels represents a step backward.
In March, the Biden administration gave the green light to the contentious Willow oil drilling project in Alaska, despite its massive scale and environmental impact. The area slated for drilling contains an estimated 600 million barrels of oil, which would result in the release of 9.2 million metric tons of greenhouse gases. This is equivalent to adding 2 million gas-powered cars to the roads. "This decision takes us further away from our national climate objectives," stated Erik Grafe, an attorney for the environmental law group Earthjustice.
Climate activists hold a demonstration to urge US President Joe Biden to reject the Willow Project at the US Department of Interior on November 17, 2022 in Washington, DC.
In July, the UK announced plans to expand oil and gas operations in the North Sea, with the government committing to awarding hundreds of new drilling licenses. This decision has been criticized by climate advocates as undermining the UK's climate commitments.
The expansion of fossil fuels by affluent nations is projected to persist for many years to come. Only five developed countries - the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and Norway - account for more than half of the planned oil and gas expansion between 2023 and 2050, as reported by Oil Change International in September. According to the report, allowing this expansion to proceed would result in irreversible climate disruption and an unsustainable future.
Weakened climate policies
The onset of an unanticipated struggle in Europe during the beginning of spring, concerning the prohibition of new gas and diesel vehicle sales, paved the way for a challenging year in the implementation of fresh climate policies.
Germany's last-minute objection to the blocs law, adding a loophole that permits the sale of combustion engine cars after the 2035 deadline if they run on synthetic fuels, raised concerns about climate backtracking, according to Elisa Giannelli, a senior policy advisor at climate think tank E3G. "It's not just about cars," she told CNN in March. "It's about the political signals that that [dispute] sends."
In February 2023, wind turbines can be seen near Whitewater, California. As the world seeks to quickly reduce planet-heating emissions, climate policies have become a contentious issue in the culture wars.
Mario Tama/Getty Images
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Throughout Europe, there has been resistance to environmental initiatives. In Germany, efforts to pass a law requiring the replacement of fossil fuel-powered heating systems with more efficient, renewable energy-based systems were weakened due to widespread opposition, particularly from the far right.
Similarly, in the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a reduction in climate commitments in September. This move was met with criticism from the government's independent climate advisory body, which stated that it would make meeting future targets more difficult.
Many nations claim to remain dedicated to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, which means they aim to eliminate at least as much planet-warming pollution from the atmosphere as they generate. However, according to Joeri Rogelj, a climate professor at Imperial College London, setting targets is only beneficial if they are backed up with actions. He also mentioned that there has been definite regression in terms of implementation.
A coal bonanza
The IEA reports that global coal consumption, the leading cause of climate change, has surged to its highest level ever in 2022, with demand expected to remain at near-record levels this year.
During the first half of 2023, China approved new coal projects at a rate comparable to two large coal plants per week, as analyzed by Global Energy Monitor. The surge in coal projects was attributed in part to worries about power shortages during intense heat waves.
Despite China's commitment to peak emissions by 2030 and significant advances in renewable energy, experts warn that the country's ongoing dependence on coal poses a threat to its progress on climate action.
Flora Champenois, a research analyst at GEM and co-author of the report, stated that China is facing increasing complications and costs in its journey toward energy transition and climate commitments. Additionally, the US has increased its coal exports to Asia, reaching the highest level since 2018 despite a reduction in domestic consumption.
In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, several countries have resorted to using coal as an alternative to Russian oil and gas. Germany, for example, took the temporary measure of reopening coal plants, and in October, the government authorized the reactivation of coal plants during the winter months to prevent potential shortages.
The Weisweiler coal-fired power plant on November 17, 2023 near Eschweiler, Germany.
Bernd Lauter/Getty Images
Experts warn that the rush for coal, even if only temporary, has also put a strain on relations between the West and the Global South.
"Every time the developed world faces a slight obstacle, they quickly retreat and justify reopening coal-fired power plants by calling it an exception," explained Rogelj.
Fossil fuel companies dialed down green plans
In 2022, major oil companies such as BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and Total reported staggering profits of $199.3 billion. These astronomical earnings were a result of the sharp increase in oil and gas prices after Russias invasion of Ukraine.
The windfall did not lead to significant growth in clean energy initiatives. Instead, many companies opted to increase fossil fuel expansion and scale back their commitments to green initiatives. For example, BP, which had previously committed to a 40% reduction in oil and gas production by 2030, announced in February that it would now aim for a 25% reduction by the end of the decade.
Despite record profits, Shell announced in February that it would keep renewables spending steady, despite having increased it in previous years.
A Shell petrol station in London, England is shown in this photo taken on February 2, 2023. The British multinational oil and gas company reported a profit of $39.9 billion (£32.2 billion) in 2022, which is double the previous year's total.
There is increased scrutiny on Big Oil following a significant increase in profits. During a June conference, the CEO of Exxon, Darren Woods, expressed his goal to double the oil production from the company's US shale projects within five years. Additionally, the company has abandoned a long-term project focused on developing fuel from algae, which was once a prominent aspect of its environmentally friendly initiatives.
The three companies have stated their commitment to transitioning to clean energy.
BP did not respond to CNN's request for comment. However, in a statement from February, the then CEO Bernard Looney stated, "We need ongoing investment in today's energy system, which relies on oil and gas, to meet current demands and ensure a smooth transition."
A Shell representative informed CNN that there will be a continued growth in global energy demand which will be addressed by various energy sources, including oil and gas. The company aims to contribute to a balanced energy transition toward achieving net-zero emissions worldwide.
On the other hand, an Exxon representative also expressed the company's commitment to reaching net zero by stating that they are "embracing" the challenge and investing $17 billion in lower-emission initiatives through 2027.
The oil and gas industry needs to significantly increase its focus on clean energy projects, with around 50% of its total capital spending aimed at this by 2030, according to a November IEA report. Currently, only 2.5% of their spending goes towards such projects. IEA executive director Fatih Birol stated that the industry is at a critical juncture and must face the reality of the worsening climate crisis, emphasizing that maintaining the status quo is not socially or environmentally responsible.
Glimmers of hope
According to Guilanpour, it would be inaccurate to claim that everything is heading in the wrong direction. "One needs to consider the trajectories, and along those trajectories, there will inevitably be obstacles to overcome."
The US-China relationship has been historically turbulent, but their collaboration on climate change has provided a ray of hope. In mid-November, the two countries committed to significantly increasing renewable energy and agreed to a widespread reduction in all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide -- marking the first time China has officially expressed this commitment. Despite some setbacks in 2023, Claire Fyson, co-head of the climate policy team at Climate Analytics, a climate science and policy institute, stated that the long-term trend is moving in the right direction, albeit at a slow pace.
"The momentum is clearly shifting towards a green transition," she told CNN. "Despite policy rollbacks in various places, the economic advantages outweigh them," Fyson stated, referencing the rapid growth of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. However, she cautioned, "we are still in a precarious situation."
CNNs Ella Nilsen, Ivana Kottasová and Nectar Gan contributed to this report.
