Challenges Persist in Reaching a Ceasefire for Gaza, Ramadan Deadline Unlikely

A ceasefire deal in Gaza that would result in the release of Israeli hostages and mark the first pause in the conflict in over three months is not expected to be reached by the beginning of Ramadan, as previously targeted by the Biden administration, according to sources familiar with the ongoing negotiations.

Negotiators had aimed to finalize a draft agreement this week following several days of talks in Cairo. However, as one diplomat involved in the discussions revealed, the past few days have been characterized by intense and busy negotiations, making it unlikely for the deal to be achieved within the desired timeframe.

Two American officials are not optimistic about Israel and Hamas reaching a temporary truce by the start of the Muslim holy month next week. One official even mentioned that hope is dwindling.

A failure to reach a deal in the coming days would follow weeks of US President Joe Biden and his team emphasizing the importance of having an agreement in time for Ramadan to prevent further escalation of the five-month conflict. President Biden cautioned on Tuesday that if a ceasefire is not achieved by then, the situation in the region could become extremely hazardous.

Palestinian children wait to receive food distributed by a charity kitchen, in the southern city of Rafah, on March 5. Israel's military campaign in Gaza has consigned civilians to deadly starvation.

Palestinian children in the southern city of Rafah are eagerly waiting to receive food from a charity kitchen. The ongoing military campaign by Israel in Gaza has left civilians vulnerable to severe hunger and starvation.

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Israel has issued a warning that if the Israeli hostages in Gaza are not returned by Ramadan, they will launch a military offensive in Rafah, southern Gaza, where 1.5 million Palestinians are seeking safety.

This week, representatives from Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, and the United States met in Cairo for talks. Israel did not send a delegation as Hamas has not provided a list of hostages who are alive or dead, as requested by Israel.

The Biden administration believes that Israel has agreed to a six-week pause, but Hamas has not yet accepted the terms.

After several days of discussions in Cairo, a Hamas delegation left without a clear breakthrough in negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. According to a senior source cited by Egypt's state-run Al Qahera news, the delegation has departed to consider the proposals and will return for further negotiations next week.

"It's up to Hamas at the moment," Biden shared with reporters while getting on Air Force One on Tuesday. He had given hope the previous week by mentioning a possible ceasefire by Monday, but later acknowledged that it was unlikely.

US President Joe Biden speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One in Hagerstown, Maryland, March 5, 2024.

US President Joe Biden speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One in Hagerstown, Maryland, March 5, 2024.

Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Both the administration and Hamas are in agreement about their wish for a temporary six-week truce to transition into a lasting ceasefire without any more fighting. The Biden officials are optimistic that this pause could lead to a more lasting peace, while Israel is committed to ongoing efforts to dismantle Hamas, especially in Rafah.

There is still hope that the first phase could begin soon, according to a diplomat who warned that an agreement could be reached in the early weeks of Ramadan.

The deadly incident last week in Gaza City, where over 100 Palestinians were killed during an aid convoy attack by Israeli forces, was a major setback according to a diplomat. Hamas then responded with a proposed framework to mediators, which received mixed reactions.

A potential deal is anticipated to have multiple phases. Initially, a ceasefire lasting at least six weeks would be implemented, allowing for the release of around 40 Israeli elderly, female, sick, and wounded individuals held captive. Simultaneously, Israel would release Palestinian prisoners, possibly numbering in the hundreds, from Israeli prisons.

Hamas had softened some of its strict demands, as per sources who spoke to CNN. However, after the recent "Flour Massacre," the group insisted on further guarantees. They wanted the Israeli military to first retreat from Gazan cities and eventually withdraw completely from the enclave. The IDF, as mentioned by a diplomat, is not willing to accept these terms.

Saadi Baraka points to the sky with one foot in a grave.

Saadi Baraka points to the sky with one foot in a grave.

Mohammad Al Sawalhi/CNN

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Palestinians from northern Gaza not only need to return to their remaining homes but also do so without having to pass through IDF checkpoints. Hamas has emphasized in the discussions that specific equipment for clearing rubble, field hospitals, and clinics should be made available.

Hamas announced on Thursday that its delegation departed from Cairo to confer with the movement's leadership. The group stated that negotiations and actions are ongoing to halt the attacks, facilitate the return of displaced individuals, and provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinian population.

Hamas claimed on Wednesday that they had been flexible in negotiations, but Israel was avoiding their responsibilities in the ongoing agreement talks.

In a news conference in Beirut on Tuesday, Hamas senior leader Osama Hamdan reiterated their conditions for a ceasefire: the complete withdrawal of IDF from the sector, the return of displaced persons to their homes, particularly in the north, and the provision of necessary aid, relief, and reconstruction.

Ramadan is a special month for Muslims, dedicated to fasting and acts of piety. According to a senior administration official, it is a time of calm and an opportunity to focus on important humanitarian work.

The United Nations reports that approximately a quarter of Gaza's population is facing the threat of famine. The Biden administration has increased its criticism of Israel for not opening more border crossings to allow essential aid into Gaza, especially in the northern region.

“There are no excuses,” Biden posted on X.

Displaced Palestinians receive food at a donation point in Rafah, southern Gaza, February 24, 2024.

Displaced Palestinians receive food at a donation point in Rafah, southern Gaza, February 24, 2024.

Yasser Qudihe/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the urgent need to increase humanitarian assistance for the people in Gaza, even without a ceasefire. He expressed concern for the children, women, and men caught in the conflict caused by Hamas in Gaza, deeming the situation unacceptable and unsustainable.

Blinken made these remarks prior to a meeting with Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, a key figure in the ceasefire negotiations. During their discussion, it was noted that a ceasefire and hostage agreement are unlikely to be reached before the start of Ramadan.

CIA Director Bill Burns, who is leading the negotiations, had a lengthy meeting with Thani during his visit to Washington, according to the same source.

State Department spokesman Matt Miller expressed optimism on Wednesday, stating that they believe the obstacles can be overcome and a deal can be reached. Miller emphasized that the agreement would benefit Israel, the Palestinian people, and the broader region, and they will continue to work towards achieving it.

CNN’s Mostafa Salem contributed reporting.

Editor's P/S:

The ongoing conflict in Gaza remains a pressing humanitarian crisis, with the Biden administration's efforts to broker a ceasefire facing challenges. The initial target of reaching an agreement before the start of Ramadan has become increasingly unlikely, as negotiations between Israel and Hamas