Australia is currently facing heat and fire concerns, signaling a worrisome start to the upcoming summer season. In a recent heatwave, over 20 participants in the Sydney Marathon had to be hospitalized. Additionally, popular ski resorts like Perisher have shut down prematurely due to insufficient snow, following the warmest winter on record since 1910.
Last week, a multitude of bushfires erupted across the nation, with over 60 blazing in the densely-populated region of New South Wales. These occurrences serve as foreboding indications of what the country can anticipate as spring transitions into summer. The combination of natural climate events, such as El Niño, compounded by anthropogenic global warming, has prompted scientists to raise concerns.
"We find ourselves in a critical juncture," expressed David Bowman, an esteemed professor specializing in pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, Australia. "The formidable force of climate change has awakened, and the arrival of El Niño intensifies its fury," he explained to CNN.
Sydney Harbour Bridge shrouded by smoke on September 13, 2023, after controlled blazes burned on the city's fringes in preparation for the looming bushfire season.
Steve Christo/AFP/Getty Images
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia recently confirmed the onset of El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño typically brings hot and dry conditions to Australia, particularly in the eastern regions. Additionally, the presence of another climate fluctuation known as the positive Indian Ocean Dipole further amplifies the chances of heat and drought. This climate pattern, similar to El Niño, arises from the Indian Ocean and exerts a significant influence on Australian weather.
This "double blow" is "extremely unfortunate," remarked Bowman. Moreover, the ongoing consumption of fossil fuels that contribute to global heating intensifies the likelihood of severe weather conditions.
Credit: STEVE MARKHAM/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
In this photo taken by Steve Markham from EPA-EFE/Shutterstock, marathon participants can be seen running through The Rocks during the 2023 Sydney Marathon in Sydney, Australia on September 17, 2023.
Sydney Marathon participants hospitalized due to Australia experiencing an unprecedented heat wave during the spring season. Karl Braganza, the head of climate monitoring at BOM, mentioned the occurrence of extreme weather conditions, including intense heat and devastating fires, in certain regions of the continent during a press conference on Tuesday.
He urged Australians to brace themselves for a summer characterized by intense heat and the looming threat of wildfires. Concerns are especially heightened due to the lasting impact of the devastating 2019-2020 Black Summer fire season, which is still vividly etched in the memories of Australians. This catastrophic event engulfed 10 million hectares (24.7 million acres) of land, tragically claiming the lives of hundreds of individuals and over a billion animals.
However, this year brings about distinct conditions. In contrast to the three-year drought preceding the Black Summer fires, which left vast landscapes susceptible to prolonged burning, Australia has experienced a period of abundant rainfall in recent years, largely attributed to the impact of La Niña, El Niño's cooler counterpart.
A fire rages in Bobin, 350 km north of Sydney, on November 9, 2019, during Australia's catastrophic Black Summer fire season.
Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images
However, experts have cautioned against complacency, as there is still a significant risk of dangerous fire seasons even without a repeat of the devastating Black Summer. Robb Webb, the CEO of the National Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC), emphasized to CNN that "we do not need a Black Summer-like event for it to be a hazardous fire season."
In its recent fire outlook, AFAC highlighted the heightened fire danger in many regions due to the rapid drying out of vegetation that had flourished during wetter years. This increased risk extends to large areas of the country.
"Sustained periods of high temperatures can rapidly transform arid landscapes, turning once lush vegetation into easily ignitable fuel within a matter of days," stated Bowman. The convergence of scorching heat and strong winds may likely contribute to the development of highly intense fires that seemingly materialize unexpectedly," he emphasized.
Aside from the threat of fire, Australians should prepare for an onslaught of extreme heat. "This upcoming summer is predicted to surpass the average temperature and will undoubtedly be hotter compared to the previous three years," warned Braganza.
Temperatures in the local area are already surpassing previous records. According to BOM, Sydney airport reached a high of 35.9 degrees Celsius (97 Fahrenheit) on Wednesday, breaking heat records for September. It is worth noting that Sydney's average temperature for September typically hovers around 20 degrees Celsius (68 Fahrenheit).
US Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks at the 78th United Nations General Assembly held in New York City on September 19, 2023. (Photo: TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)
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Whether summer heat will be unprecedented remains uncertain.
According to Andrea Taschetto, an associate professor in climate at the University of New South Wales, every El Niño is unique, making it difficult to accurately forecast the level of heat. However, there are indications that suggest a strong likelihood of this summer breaking temperature records.
Jason Evans, a climate professor at the University of New South Wales, expresses caution compared to others. Although the abnormally hot winter raises concerns about extreme heat this summer, Evans believes that the previous rainy years reduce the probability of record-breaking temperatures. However, he emphasizes that the extent of dryness in the upcoming months is crucial. Evans stated that it is evident that climate change intensifies numerous extreme weather events, with increasing extreme heat being the most evident example. Additionally, he highlights that climate change worsens the impacts of drought and extreme rain.
"Climate change is now taking center stage," Bowman said. "The past is an increasingly unreliable guide for the future. Expect the unexpected."
