Breaking: Unprecedented Surge in Nuclear Test Site Activity Revealed by Satellite Images in Russia, China, and US

Satellite images obtained exclusively by CNN reveal that Russia, the United States, and China have constructed new facilities and tunnels at their nuclear test sites in recent years. These developments come amid heightened tensions between the three major nuclear powers, the likes of which have not been witnessed in decades. Although there is no evidence indicating immediate preparations for a nuclear test by any of these countries, the images, sourced from a renowned analyst in military nonproliferation studies, demonstrate the notable expansions that have taken place at these test sites in comparison to just a few years ago.

In China, there is an operational facility located in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Additionally, Russia operates another facility in an archipelago within the Arctic Ocean. Finally, the United States has its own facility located in the Nevada desert. Satellite images spanning the past three to five years reveal the presence of newly constructed tunnels beneath mountains, as well as the establishment of fresh roads and storage facilities at these sites. Moreover, there has been a noticeable increase in vehicular traffic entering and exiting these locations, as reported by Jeffrey Lewis, an adjunct professor affiliated with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Retired US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton, a former intelligence analyst, examined the images of Russia, China, and the United States' nuclear facilities and reached a comparable judgment.

It is evident that Russia, China, and the United States have dedicated significant resources in enhancing their nuclear weapons and preparing the necessary activities for testing them. "While Moscow has officially approved the treaty, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in February that he would authorize a test if the US takes the initiative, cautioning against any misguided belief that global strategic equilibrium can be dismantled."

Analysts have warned that the expansions could potentially trigger a competition to update nuclear weapons testing facilities, adding to the already existing distrust between Washington and the two authoritarian governments. However, it is important to note that an actual armed conflict is not deemed immediate.

Lewis emphasized that the danger lies in how nuclear testing amplifies the ongoing arms race between the United States, Russia, and China. This, in turn, results in extravagant spending without providing any real sense of security.

Nuclear threats

Lewis made these remarks following the release of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' assessment, where the iconic Doomsday Clock was set to 90 seconds to midnight earlier this year. This alarming position represents the most critical state of global self-destruction since its establishment in 1947.

The group attributed its sobering assessment to the war in Ukraine, which was ignited by Russia's illicit invasion of its neighboring country in February 2022.

"Russia's veiled nuclear threats serve as a stark reminder that any escalation of the conflict, whether accidental, intentional, or due to miscalculation, poses an immense risk. The likelihood of the conflict spiraling beyond anyone's control remains significant," emphasized the group.

The Doomsday Clock now indicates a greater danger of the extinction of humanity compared to 1953, when the United States and the Soviet Union carried out significant above-ground tests of nuclear weapons.

Recently, Secretary-General António Guterres urged influential nations to ratify the international treaty that prohibits experiments for both peaceful and military objectives.

Guterres stated that there is a concerning increase in global mistrust and division this year. He highlighted the fact that there are nearly 13,000 nuclear weapons stockpiled worldwide, and countries are actively enhancing their accuracy, range, and destructive capabilities, which poses a significant threat to humanity.

Lewis suggested that the Russian military's underperformance in Ukraine might be one of the reasons motivating Moscow to contemplate the resumption of nuclear tests.

Dmitry Medvedev, an ardent supporter of Putin and the current deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, has declared that Moscow would resort to nuclear weapons if Ukraine's counteroffensive proved successful. Medvedev's confrontational language has drawn attention, but Putin is recognized as Russia's primary decision-maker and is widely regarded as the true power behind the throne during Medvedev's four-year presidency.

Belarus, which has played a significant role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, reportedly received tactical nuclear weapons from Moscow, according to President Alexander Lukashenko's statement in August. He further stated that Minsk would be prepared to utilize these weapons in response to foreign aggression.

Russia and China

In the midst of the Russian military's invasion of Ukraine last year, experts have observed a notable growth in the country's nuclear testing facility located in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic Ocean.

In mid-August, the facility received renewed focus when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu paid a visit, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

New Construction at Russia's Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site, June 22, 2023.

Planet Labs PBC/Middlebury Institute

From 1955 to 1990, the Soviet Union extensively utilized the Novaya Zemlya site for conducting nuclear tests, totaling 130 tests and involving over 200 devices. Recent satellite imagery from 2021 to 2023 reveals significant construction taking place at the test site, including the arrival of ships and new shipping containers at its port, the maintenance of clear roads during winter, and the excavation of tunnels within the Arctic mountains.

"The Russian test site is currently operational throughout the year. We observe their efforts to clear snow from roads and construct new facilities," Lewis stated.

Adjacent to these facilities lie tunnels where Russia has previously conducted tests, Lewis noted. "Over the past five to six years, we have witnessed the creation of new tunnels by Russia, indicating their readiness to recommence nuclear testing," he further noted.

Leighton, the former US Air Force intelligence officer and now a CNN analyst, stated that it is evident that the Russians are preparing for a potential nuclear test. However, he cautioned that there are significant considerations to be made.

According to Leighton, the Russians might be attempting to push the boundaries by making extensive preparations for a nuclear test without actually conducting one. Essentially, their aim would be to intimidate the West.

Moscow has not responded to CNNs request for comment on this subject, and there is no way know exactly what is going on hidden from the view of satellites.

Lop Nor nuclear test site.

Planet Labs PBC/Middlebury Institute

Activity has also been observed at the Lop Nur nuclear test site in western China, situated between two deserts in a thinly inhabited area. Recent satellite imagery reveals the construction of a new underground tunnel, marking the fifth excavation in the past few years. Additionally, the development of fresh roads has been observed. By comparing images from 2022 and 2023, it becomes evident that the pile of excavated material has progressively grown larger, indicating the expansion of tunnels, as suggested by analysts.

The main administration and support area has undergone new construction projects. According to Lewis, a storage facility specifically designated for storing explosives was constructed in both 2021 and 2022.

Lewis highlighted the distinctions between the Chinese and Russian test sites, noting that the Chinese site is expansive and comprised of various sections.

The busy appearance of the area is clearly visible in satellite imagery, indicating that even the US government would be able to observe it, according to the person interviewed. Additionally, the April report from the China Observer project by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, consisting of Chinese experts in Japan, also acknowledged the heightened activity at Lop Nur.

The group concluded that China may be conducting subcritical nuclear tests based on the analysis of satellite photos of the Lop Nur site. They discovered a potential sixth testing tunnel being built at Lop Nur, suggesting that the test site's construction is nearing completion due to the presence of a lengthy tunnel with bends along the mountainous terrain.

In a statement to CNN, Chinas Foreign Ministry criticized the report as "hyping up Chinas nuclear threat," and described it as "extremely irresponsible."

New Construction at the administrative and support area, Lop Nor nuclear test site.

Planet Labs PBC/

The Chinese side has remained committed to its promise of suspending nuclear tests since 1996 and has diligently defended the international consensus on prohibiting such tests. It emphasized the need for heightened vigilance regarding the nuclear testing activities of the United States.

Activity in Nevadas desert

The US releases an unclassified version of the Nuclear Posture Review every few years, which provides an overview of the role of nuclear weapons in its security strategy.

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According to the latest report, which was released in October of last year, Washington stated that it would only resort to the use of nuclear weapons under "extreme circumstances." However, the report also highlighted that the United States does not currently adhere to a "no first use policy" due to the perceived "unacceptable level of risk" it would pose to national security.

Despite conducting its most recent underground test in 1992, experts maintain that the United States has consistently maintained a state of preparedness for a nuclear test, should any of its adversaries make a preemptive move.

"The United States maintains a policy of being ready to carry out a nuclear test within a relatively short timeframe, approximately six months," he stated.

Commercial satellite images captured above the Nevada National Security Site, commonly referred to as the nuclear test site in Nevada, reveal significant expansion of the underground U1a complex from 2018 to 2023.

The NNSA, a division of the US Department of Energy responsible for the site, states that the laboratory is dedicated to conducting subcritical nuclear experiments. These experiments have been traditionally employed to verify the dependability of weapons in the existing stockpile without the need for full-scale testing.

As stated on the NNSA website, subcritical experiments involve the utilization of chemical high explosives to create elevated pressures, which are then applied to nuclear weapon materials like plutonium. The design and amounts of explosives and nuclear materials are carefully controlled to prevent any occurrence of a nuclear explosion.

The NNSA spokesperson stated in response to CNN's request for comment that they are currently revamping the infrastructure and scientific capabilities at the Nevada test site. This includes acquiring advanced sources and detectors, creating reactivity measurement technology, and ongoing tunneling efforts. The goal of these initiatives is to offer contemporary diagnostic capabilities and data, ultimately ensuring the safety and efficacy of the US nuclear stockpile without the need for additional underground nuclear explosive testing.

Construction activity, Nevada National Security Site from 2023 to 2018.

The US Governmental Accountability Office (GAO) released a report in August stating that two measurement devices will be constructed at the Nevada site to conduct new plutonium measurements during subcritical experiments.

The GAO report estimates that the devices and infrastructure upgrades required for the modernization of the nuclear weapons stockpile will have a price tag of approximately $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, with completion expected by 2030. The National Security Council's spokesperson confirmed that they are closely monitoring Russia's military activities and mentioned that there is currently no need to make any changes to their own nuclear posture.

The expansion of facilities at the Nevada test site may raise concerns in Moscow and Beijing about Washington's potential for a nuclear test. Although both countries can observe the development through satellite images, they are unable to verify the activities taking place inside independently, according to Lewis. Such perceptions can be hazardous, particularly in the current era characterized by fear and lack of trust among all parties involved, he added.

Even if all three initially plan to go second, there is a risk that one of them may convince themselves of the significance of going first, while another may choose to follow suit with the intention of gaining an advantage and getting started. In such a scenario, it is important to note that any significant underground explosion is likely to be detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS), a global network comprised of 337 facilities that actively monitors the planet for indications of nuclear explosions.

Continued modernization

There is a genuine risk of escalating tests if any of the major powers were to engage in such actions, as acknowledged by Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.

"The moment a major nuclear power detonates a nuclear weapon anywhere, it is evident that all previous agreements and assurances become irrelevant. It is undeniable that every nation will then engage in nuclear development once again," he stated.

According to a recent world nuclear forces yearbook, jointly written by Kristensen and released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in June, analysts determined that all nuclear powers across the globe, including the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, persisted in "enhancing their nuclear arsenals" in the previous year.

On September 1, Russia declared the operational readiness of its new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, known as the Sarmat or "Satan II". This powerful weapon has the capability to carry at least 10 independently targeted nuclear warheads, possibly more, and can reach distances of up to 18,000 kilometers (approximately 11,185 miles), as confirmed by the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

In addition, the United States is also developing advanced delivery systems for nuclear warheads, such as the B-21 stealth bomber and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine. Alongside these advancements, upgrades will be made to accommodate nuclear storage facilities at United States Air Force bases in Ellsworth and Dyess, as stated in a report by Kristensen published in the Federation of American Scientists in 2020.

The B-21 Raider is unveiled during a ceremony at Northrop Grumman's Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California, on December 2, 2022.

According to the SIPRI report, Russia and the US account for approximately 90% of global nuclear weapons. The US is estimated to hold over 3,700 warheads in its stockpile, while Russia possesses around 4,500. Both countries maintain their strategic nuclear arsenals on high alert, allowing for the quick launch of nuclear weapons.

China's nuclear stockpile has seen a significant rise, surging from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 by January 2023. Previously, China maintained a policy of not aligning warheads with delivery systems, thereby keeping their nuclear forces in a state of relatively low alert. However, according to the Arms Control Association (ACA) non-governmental organization, there has been a notable shift this year, with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) now regularly transitioning missile battalions from standby to a state of readiness for launching on a monthly basis.

In the ACAs monthly journal in August, Fiona Cunningham, a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that it is difficult to determine Beijing's nuclear position. She highlighted that the growing scale, precision, preparedness, and variety of China's arsenal enhance the credibility of their capacity to retaliate against a nuclear attack. Moreover, these developments allow China to issue more credible threats of utilizing nuclear weapons as a first strike.

Lop Nur lake and the Taklamakan Desert in Yuli County, located in the Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China, are captured in an awe-inspiring aerial view on November 28, 2021. The entire landscape is gracefully blanketed in a pristine layer of snow.

Yang Kun/VCG/Getty Images

But Kristensen told CNN that while all three major powers have been engaging in subcritical tests, he believed "a full-scale nuclear test is unlikely."

Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, concurred with the statement in the September newsletter that "China, Russia, and the United States persist in conducting weapons-related operations at their previous nuclear testing locations."

However, Kimball acknowledged that the absence of actual testing makes it "challenging, though not entirely impossible, for nations to create, validate, and deploy novel warhead designs."

Whats the point of more tests?

But if all three countries have suspended nuclear testing since the 1990s, what could they gain from the resumption of these tests?

Lewis stated that testing is necessary, especially for China, in order to obtain more current data for computer models that predict the effects of a nuclear explosion. Unlike the United States and Russia, which have conducted hundreds of tests, China has only performed around 40 tests and therefore has significantly fewer data points.

"The 40 tests conducted by China took place during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, a time when their technology was not at a high level. As a result, the quality of the data they possess is not very good," explained Lewis.

Novaya Zemlya is an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean located north of Russia, August 23, 2012.

Critics highlight that major powers have refrained from conducting tests on low-yield nuclear weapons. These weapons generate smaller nuclear explosions intended to target a specific battlefield unit or formation, rather than causing destruction to a significant urban area.

The US may show reluctance in retaliating against a Russian low-yield attack in 2022, as suggested by researchers Michael Frankel, James Scouras, and George Ullrich in a report for the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Baltimore. The report, titled "Tickling the Sleeping Dragons Tail," highlights that although the United States possesses a few lower-yield weapons, they lack the required quantity and diversity of delivery systems.

The report highlights the proposal of smaller nuclear weapons, with yields below one kiloton (to put it into perspective, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the US in 1945 had a yield of approximately 15 kilotons), which could be transported by aircraft or ships as a means to deter Russian nuclear threats.

According to the report, the availability of these weapons is improbable without conducting testing.

According to United Nations data, the United States, being the first nuclear power in the world, has carried out a total of 1,032 tests, with the initial test occurring in 1945 and the final one in 1992. The Soviet Union, which is now Russia, conducted 715 tests between 1949 and 1990, while China performed 45 tests from 1964 to 1996.

Lewis maintains that the desire of the United States, Russia, and China to pioneer the development of futuristic "exotic" weapons also creates a necessity for conducting nuclear tests on such potential systems.

Putin's arsenal may soon include destructive weapons such as a nuclear-armed doomsday torpedo and a nuclear-powered cruise missile, as he has proudly declared. According to Lewis, we are approaching a science fiction-like future where we are reviving dreadful concepts from the Cold War era.

CNNs Hayley Britzky contributed to this report.