Biden's Gulf Allies Aspire for an Unbreakable Security Pact with the US: Here's the Groundbreaking Blueprint

Two Arab allies of the United States are urging the Biden administration to establish a comprehensive agreement to formalize their military partnership, amid growing concerns over China's increasing influence in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of the Arab world's closest military allies to the US, have recently requested increased security assistance from Washington. They have also expressed that, in a world with multiple power centers, they are not solely reliant on the US for their defense needs.

"America does not wish to witness Saudi Arabia redirecting their arms procurement away from the United States," stated Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in a recent interview with Fox News' Bret Baier.

Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, expressed positive views on the US involvement in the Middle East, emphasizing the need to solidify this involvement to prevent any potential gaps that may be exploited by other actors. He emphasized the importance of transitioning from an informal security arrangement to a formal one, advocating for a new, strong security arrangement with the US.

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is pictured in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on June 7.

Bandar Algaloud/Saudi Royal Court/Reuters

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Gulf states have increasingly recognized the need for a formal agreement that ensures their security and obligates the US to defend them against military aggression. They have experienced attacks in recent years that they attribute to Iran and its allies, and have been dissatisfied with the US response.

"In order to deter regional adversaries from undermining the U.S.-led regional order, it is crucial for the United States to make a substantial security commitment that would be perceived as reliable. According to Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst, the United States must reintroduce deterrence by making its military power projection tangible. This is particularly significant in the context of Saudi Arabia's talks with Washington regarding the potential normalization of ties with Israel, as it would be a major foreign policy achievement for President Joe Biden leading up to the 2024 US presidential elections."

Last month, MBS for the first time publicly acknowledged the normalization talks, saying his country was moving "closer" each day to reaching a deal with Israel.

What a security pact could look like

The Gulf states may face disappointment as the likelihood of the US extending a comprehensive security agreement is low. This agreement would potentially entangle the US further in Middle East conflicts and would require complex legislative approval in a Congress where Saudi Arabia remains unpopular due to its human rights record. While discussions on this potential agreement have not been made public, experts have suggested several possibilities, including treaties acknowledging Gulf security as a part of US national interest, designating the Gulf nations as Major Non-NATO Allies, or establishing a formal security commitment similar to those with Japan and South Korea.

In the 1950s, the US established defense treaties with Tokyo and Seoul to safeguard them in the event of an armed attack. These nations benefit from a substantial presence of the US military and are also designated as Major Non-NATO Allies.

Being granted Major Non-NATO Ally status by the US grants partners various advantages in defense trade and security cooperation. This designation is seen as a symbol of a strong partnership and offers certain military and economic privileges. However, it should be noted that it does not impose any security obligations on the US.

Bahrain, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, became the initial Gulf state to be designated a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) in 2002. Qatar, which hosts the US Central Command, was included in the MNNA list last year.

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in July 2019.

Andy Wong/Getty Images

Jean-Loup Samaan, a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore and author of "New Military Strategies in the Gulf: The Mirage of Autonomy in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar," suggests that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are possibly seeking a comprehensive treaty similar to the ones previously signed with Japan and South Korea amidst the ongoing US-China rivalry.

They may also request that Washington facilitate access to arms sales and potentially enhance the presence of the US military in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the speaker noted, possibly to align with the presence in Qatar or Bahrain.

Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether the US would agree to a treaty obligating them to defend the Gulf states in the event of an attack.

"This can only be granted through a treaty ratified by the Senate," conveyed David Des Roches, a professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Security Studies and former Pentagon official with experience in the Middle East.

"Without a significant advancement, like Saudi Arabia acknowledging Israel, it seems unlikely that the Biden administration will present any treaty, even if it's a less binding agreement, to the Senate," expressed Des Roches to CNN. While the president has the authority to make certain compromises without Senate ratification, these will not satisfy the demands of the Gulf states.

Between oversight and autonomy

The Saudis and other countries have observed the consequences of a non-treaty agreement being reversed, indicating the belief in the Gulf that the United States is becoming less involved in the region. These nations are unlikely to find anything less than a legally binding treaty commitment acceptable.

Experts argue that Gulf states' autonomy in defense matters will be affected by any agreement with the US. This is because the Biden administration is likely to demand that its Arab allies reduce their engagement with countries like China and Russia, both of which have recently strengthened their ties with the Gulf states.

In 2021, the UAE suspended a multi-billion-dollar deal to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the US. This decision was driven by Abu Dhabi's increasing frustration with Washington's efforts to restrict the sale of Chinese technology to the Gulf state. Previously, the sale of these fighter jets was seen as a crucial element in the UAE's decision to normalize its relations with Israel a year earlier.

Gargash confirmed the UAE's continued interest in acquiring F-35 jets from the US, albeit with a caveat. He emphasized the need to address certain "sovereign requirements" in collaboration with the US.

According to Des Roches, the introduction of a new security pact could lead the US to request Gulf states to limit the implementation of Chinese technology that could potentially jeopardize US weaponry utilized by Gulf countries.

However, Samaan pointed out that Gulf states are likely to perceive these limitations as a violation of their sovereignty. Nonetheless, he stated that the Gulf states' desire for a revised security agreement with the US reaffirms that Washington continues to be their primary choice for security concerns, notwithstanding the talk of seeking alternative options.

He stated that Gulf states are returning to their normal business operations and seeking larger security packages from Washington, despite the apparent discrepancy between their public statements and true desires. CNN's Abbas Al Lawati also contributed to this report.