Biden administration privately raises concerns about Israel's Gaza tactics as US officials predict potential conclusion of ground operation by January
US officials expect Israel's ground invasion of Gaza to continue for several weeks, but anticipate a shift to a more localized strategy targeting specific Hamas militants and leaders by January, as Israel cannot sustain high-intensity operations indefinitely
US officials anticipate that Israel's current ground invasion of Gaza, focused on the southern end of the strip, will continue for several weeks before likely shifting to a more targeted approach by January. This approach will involve a lower intensity and will focus on specific Hamas militants and leaders, according to multiple senior administration officials who spoke to CNN.
As this new phase of the conflict begins, the White House is expressing deep concern about the unfolding of Israel's operations over the next few weeks, stated a senior US administration official. The US has reportedly warned Israel in firm and direct conversations that the Israeli Defense Forces must avoid replicating the devastating tactics used in the north and take greater measures to minimize civilian casualties.
The US has warned Israel that international support for its ground campaign is diminishing due to the increasing number of civilian casualties. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a direct public warning that Israel can only be successful in urban warfare if it protects civilians. He stated that US support for Israel is unwavering, but Israel is at risk of turning a tactical victory into a strategic defeat if it does not take steps to prevent civilian deaths.
Almost 16,000 Palestinians have lost their lives since Israel started its campaign in October, in response to a Hamas terror attack on October 7, as reported by the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health. An Israeli official stated that they believe they have killed "several thousand" Hamas militants.
While senior Biden administration officials have urged Israel to take further steps to reduce civilian casualties, they have refrained from openly criticizing Israel's tactics, opting instead to privately advise and guide Israel.
According to a senior administration official speaking to CNN, Israel's response to the administration's military advice has not been accurately described as "receptive," despite public statements from other senior members of the administration. Both publicly and privately, Israeli officials assert that their ultimate goal is to weaken Hamas to the point that the group cannot carry out another attack like the one on October 7. A senior US official noted to CNN that achieving this goal by the end of the year is unlikely, and Israel is anticipated to continue pursuing it as part of a "longer-term campaign."
A senior Israeli official acknowledged that there is likely to be a transition in the coming weeks, stating: "We are currently engaged in a high-intensity operation, but will likely shift to a low-intensity mode in the near future."
CNN reached out to the National Security Council and the Israeli government for their response.
Israel cant maintain high-intensity operations indefinitely
Recent US evaluations indicate that Israel cannot sustain its current level of high-intensity operations for an indefinite period, particularly with the mobilized reservists, according to a source familiar with the intelligence. Additionally, Israel has been compelled to counter frequent attacks by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah along its northern border, which is another factor that is likely to prompt Israeli forces to shift towards more targeted raids once they have eradicated as many Hamas militants in Gaza as possible, the source added.
US officials are optimistic that by January, Israel will transition to a more targeted strategy similar to the US's shift away from high-intensity combat in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to senior US officials speaking to CNN, Israeli officials have indicated that this is their intention. The US officials have refrained from publicly criticizing Israel and are now emphasizing that their guidance to target Gaza with more precision has started to yield results.
After Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israel to take concrete steps to protect civilians during his visit to the region last week, the IDF revealed an online map of Gaza divided into small parcels. This was seen as an effort to warn residents of specific areas to evacuate due to military operations. However, accessing the map requires electricity and internet connectivity, both of which have been frequently cut off in Gaza.
In response to this, national security adviser Jake Sullivan informed reporters on Monday that Israel has "taken the unusual step for a modern military of precisely identifying the area for ground maneuvers and has asked the people in that area to evacuate."
He repeatedly refused to give an opinion on whether Israel's tactics have been more balanced since the truce with Hamas collapsed and the fighting restarted. He told reporters on Monday that it is "premature" to make a judgment. Additionally, officials have maintained that the initial Israeli Defense Forces incursion into northern Gaza would have been much broader if not for US warnings. Those familiar with their planning said that Israel's original plan after the Hamas attack involved a large-scale land, air, and sea operation with hundreds of thousands of troops and a goal to "flatten" the entire Gaza Strip.
In recent weeks, US officials have been pointing out that Israel has been paying attention to the advice given by senior American military advisers on how to conduct urban warfare. Vice President Kamala Harris stated that she believes Israel has listened to the US, and National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed that the approach taken so far has been producing effective results.
