Battling the Bear: Ukraine's Remarkable Strides Against Russia

Editors Note: Sébastien Roblin, an expert in international security and conflict, has provided analysis on the technical, historical, and political aspects of these topics. With a masters degree in conflict resolution from Georgetown University and experience serving with the Peace Corps in China, his insights are invaluable. You can follow him on Twitter (@sebastienroblin). The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. For more opinions, visit CNN.

After achieving remarkable comebacks in 2022, Ukraine's forces faced significant challenges during the summer in their efforts to liberate southern Ukraine from Russian control. The progress they made was considerably slower compared to their previous victories.

By August, lawmakers in Washington had started to leak harsh criticisms of Ukraine's performance on the battlefield, with supporters of Ukraine blaming the Western countries for their prolonged delays in providing heavy equipment. As a result, Russia was given additional time to strengthen its defenses.

Sebastien Roblin

Courtesy Sebastien Roblin

The criticism, which is lamentable considering the significance of presenting a united front, was especially misguided given that Ukrainian forces have recently started making progress after weeks of intense combat. Despite this, a group of individuals vociferously argue that the disappointments of the summer indicate that there is no option but to halt aid to Ukraine, or at least use the threat of doing so to compel Kyiv to negotiate for peace.

The doom brigade consistently made incorrect predictions, suggesting that Ukraine would not be able to withstand Russia's invasion and subsequent offensives in both summer and winter. They also dismissed efforts to liberate Kherson province as futile. Their proposed solution of pressuring Kyiv to make territorial concessions to placate Russia is politically impractical, as Ukrainian leaders have vowed to continue fighting regardless of the level of support they receive from the public. Additionally, a forced Ukrainian peace plan would likely not be reciprocated by the Kremlin, potentially leading to future conflict similar to the West's insufficient response to Russia's takeover of Crimea in 2014-2015, which laid the groundwork for the 2022 invasion.

All of this implies that the Western countries should strategize for the potential scenario of the war enduring for multiple years in order to optimize the likelihood of either expelling Russia through military means or persuading Russian President, Vladimir Putin, that his passive approach will lead to defeat.

US Air Force MQ-9 camera footage: Russian Su-27 Black Sea intercept

US European Command

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Despite waning support from parts of the GOP and the disappointing outcome of the G20 summit hosted by India, where a consensus against Russia's invasion was not reached, it is crucial not to give up after a lackluster summer. This emphasizes the difficulties of garnering international assistance beyond Western nations.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive had a disappointing start and did not make as much progress as expected. Russia learned from their mistakes in 2022 and, when Ukraine's newly trained and equipped brigades launched the counteroffensive in June, they encountered dense and deep Russian minefields that could not be cleared quickly enough. This gave Russian drones, artillery, and attack helicopters enough time to detect and target them. Additionally, Ukraine lacked sufficient vehicles to absorb the losses.

However, the Ukrainian military quickly adapted to their familiar attrition warfare strategy. Engineers painstakingly cleared paths through vast minefields by foot. Meanwhile, Kyiv's troops utilized their artillery superiority, gained through Western weapon deliveries, to systematically wear down Russian batteries and manpower. According to a report from the British Royal United Services Institute think tank, Ukrainian troops successfully advanced an average of 700 to 1,200 meters every five days using these tactics.

Entering September, the counteroffensive still holds promise in accomplishing significant intermediate goals. Currently, Ukraine faces a limited timeframe of a couple of months before it potentially exhausts its supply of essential artillery shells, fresh combat units, and the opportunity to pursue major offensive operations, at least temporarily, due to the impending unfavorable weather conditions in the muddy fall.

Donald Trump, the former President, engages in a CNN Republican Town Hall event moderated by CNN's Kaitlan Collins. This event takes place at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Wednesday, May 10, 2023. Photographed by Will Lanzoni/CNN.

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The slow progress in Ukraine can be attributed, in part, to Russia's risky strategy of "defending forward" instead of utilizing the multiple layers of their defenses to retreat. Consequently, this initially prevented Ukraine from achieving easier territorial gains but resulted in heavier losses for Russia. However, some analysts speculate that Russia may now be facing a shortage of troops to maintain their defensive lines, with the deeper lines being less strongly defended compared to the forward ones.

In August, Ukraine also deployed its reserve elite brigades in an attempt to break through Russian lines. In a significant battle for the village of Robotyne, Ukrainian forces managed to overcome the Russian forces present and started advancing eastwards towards Verbove. This strategic move could potentially open a path towards key cities such as Tokmak and, ultimately, Melitopol.

Simultaneously, Russia's chances of capturing or recapturing Ukrainian territory this winter appear limited. This is due to the failures of their previous wasteful winter offensive, the losses they suffered during the summer, and the consistently poor leadership of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and general staff chief Valery Gerasimov.

If Kyiv can maintain its gains and avoid significant losses and shell expenses, it has the potential to advance further south towards Melitopol. This would effectively cut off the land bridge to Russia's strategic bases and port in Crimea.

It is important to clarify that Kyiv's desire to reclaim territory is not merely a quest for national pride. Reports have emerged of Ukrainians in occupied communities being subjected to torture, mutilation, sexual violence, and execution. Additionally, thousands of children have been forcibly separated from their families and deported to Russia. Furthermore, the land previously seized by Russia has been utilized to launch deeper attacks into Ukraine, making it a pressing concern to restore defensible borders.

To maximize Ukraine's chances of reclaiming regions currently occupied by Russia since 2022, it is imperative for Washington and NATO to devise comprehensive, long-term strategies for providing military assistance, prioritizing artillery systems and ammunition. This should be followed by bolstering air defenses, deploying drones, and supplying armored vehicles. As the readily available Western equipment diminishes, it becomes crucial to intensify new large-scale production and procurement efforts supported by the United States and its allies.

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The combination of Western aid and the bravery of Ukrainian forces has aided Kyiv in persisting through a tremendously challenging battle. In July, the Biden administration took a significant step by providing essential supplies to Ukraine, including a considerable quantity of disputed cluster artillery shells. This decision was a difficult one, considering the long-lasting risks these cluster shells pose after the battle is over. However, Kyiv received the necessary ammunition to prolong their counteroffensive while they await the increased production of conventional shells in 2024.

In the meantime, the use of Western armored vehicles significantly decreased the number of casualties among the crew and occupants of the targeted vehicles. Additionally, French and British cruise missiles successfully attacked Russian command centers and ammunition storage locations, even reaching Crimea.

Moving forward, it is crucial for the United States to continue supplying shells, rockets, and Bradley fighting vehicles (which were instrumental in the Robotyne operation). Moreover, the imminent arrival of a battalion consisting of 31 Abrams tanks in Ukraine should be followed by a substantial increase in their numbers.

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In this file photo, captured during the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a member of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the 10th separate mountain assault brigade can be seen preparing to launch a mortar towards their positions at the front line near the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk region, Ukraine. The image offers a glimpse into the intense fighting and tension that has characterized this volatile region. (Date: July 13, 2023; Source: REUTERS/Sofiia Gatilova/File Photo)

Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters

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The tanks will be equipped with depleted uranium ammunition. However, contrary to widespread claims, multiple studies have not found these to pose greater health risks than regular anti-tank shells. It is recommended that Washington consider providing longer-range missiles, such as the ATACMS missile, which the Biden administration may be close to authorizing, according to insiders.

Another issue is the ongoing delay in rebuilding Ukraine's air force, despite commitments to deliver F-16A jets. While these jets are not extraordinary weapons, they are crucial for Ukraine to eventually develop a modern, Western-equipped air force. NATO training should also be enhanced in terms of both quantity and quality. This includes providing crash courses for senior Ukrainian command staffs on planning large and complex operations, in which Ukraine's military currently struggles to execute.

Make no mistake, the upcoming war continues to be a dreadful ordeal. However, by assisting Ukrainians in reclaiming their territory, the United States not only advances its own interests in countering Russian aggression in Europe but also demonstrates the significant potential costs of pursuing conquests against US partners.

Putin made a disastrous miscalculation when he invaded Ukraine. Now, he is relying on the hope that Western support for Ukraine will eventually wane, allowing him to salvage whatever spoils he can. The elite in Moscow are particularly determined to hold on until 2024, in the belief that former President Donald Trump will regain office and reduce aid as opposition to supporting Ukraine intensifies within the GOP.

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Connect with us on Twitter and Facebook. However, surrendering easily in the face of minor obstacles can have catastrophic consequences. A notable example is General George McClellan during the American Civil War. Despite the Confederate surrender in Appomattox a few months later, McClellan ran against Lincoln advocating for peace with the Confederacy. Consider the potential aftermath if McClellan's "peace" plan had been successful - it could have resulted in further wars, unjust oppression, and needless bloodshed.

The high cost of defeating Putins invasion is lamentable. But failing to do so now could entail the US, Europe and Ukraine paying a much higher price later.