As 2023 nears its end, Putin's pursuit of victory remains evident
Amidst 2023's final months, Putin skillfully exudes assurance, leaving no doubt on his path to certain re-election in March
As we approach the end of 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin exudes confidence as he sails towards an inevitable re-election in March.
In Russia, presidential elections can be seen as a form of political theater. Putin faces no serious challengers, with his most prominent opponent, Alexey Navalny, imprisoned 40 miles north of the Arctic Circle. The media portray Putin as an indispensable figure for Russia. Despite this, the upcoming election is an important public ritual for the Kremlin leader, who is poised to secure power until the end of the decade.
After a "heroes of Russia" ceremony, Putin casually announced his bid for the 2024 election during an on-camera chat with servicemen who had fought in Ukraine. They implored the president to run, with one representative of the Russian-occupied Donetsk region stating, "You are our president, and we are your team. We need you, and Russia needs you."
Putin's response can be summarized as "I had different thoughts before, but it's time to make a decision. I will run for the presidency of the Russian Federation."
Ukrainian servicemen near the front line town of Marinka, in Donetsk region.
Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters
Ukraines hopes for victory fade in the face of waning Western support and Putins relentless war machine
The moment was obviously designed to highlight Putin as a cherished national leader. It also highlighted what Putin considers a major achievement of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine - the annexation of four regions in defiance of international law.
However, if Putin is positioning himself as a wartime president, he must manipulate the truth. Russia does not have complete control over the Ukrainian regions it claimed in September 2022, the war has resulted in significant losses of Russian lives and equipment, and the Black Sea Fleet has suffered significant damage.
Furthermore, the impact of the war has directly affected Russia. Recently, Ukrainian drones have carried out strikes deep within Russian borders. Although Kyiv denies involvement, these attacks have caused psychological distress, especially when drones breached the airspace around the Kremlin in May.
The most significant fallout from the conflict in Ukraine occurred in June when Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin incited an insurrection in the midst of a dispute with Russia's highest-ranking military officers and advanced on Moscow.
Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in more than two decades when Yevgeny Prigozhin led an abortive march on Moscow in June.
Wagner paramilitaries, allegedly under the control of Prigozhin, were halted just before reaching the Russian capital in a questionable arrangement seemingly facilitated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Despite this, the sight of Wagner forces advancing towards Moscow without resistance, and their involvement in bringing down Russian military aircraft, significantly tarnished Putin's reputation as the protector of domestic stability in Russia.
Prigozhin's death came just two months after the mutiny, as he perished in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances in late August. The event marked Putin's survival of the most significant threat to his power in more than twenty years. However, the rebellion had eroded a fundamental aspect of his rule: the perception of the president as invincible.
Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya observed that many ultra-patriots were initially perplexed by the leniency shown towards Prigozhin, interpreting it as a sign of weakness in both the state and Putin himself. She noted, "Even if Prigozhin's death was truly accidental, the Kremlin will undoubtedly work to portray it as an act of retribution. Putin views this as his personal contribution to the strengthening of Russian statehood."
By the end of the year, the Kremlin's PR machine had apparently successfully downplayed the entire Prigozhin affair. During Putin's lengthy year-end press conference, Prigozhin's name went unmentioned, though Putin did concede the occurrence of "setbacks that the Defense Ministry should have prevented" with regards to private military companies.
As always, the annual review was a showcase of spin, with Putin confidently delivering the message that Russia was once again in a strong position, and he rattled off statistics to support his claim. According to Putin, the economy was rebounding with GDP growth, recovering from a 2.1% decline the previous year, and Russia's industrial output was on the rise. He proudly boasted that the country's unemployment rate had dropped to a historic low of 2.9%.
Putin speaks during his annual press conference in Moscow, December 14, 2023.
Russia has successfully navigated through sanctions and its economy is now focused on military readiness. The US Treasury Department reports that defense spending has been a key factor in driving economic growth. This trend is expected to continue, as Putin has pledged to allocate whatever resources are necessary to pursue the conflict in Ukraine.
The situation on the battlefield in Ukraine has provided Putin with another chance to display confidence. Despite Ukraine's failed counter-offensive and the Biden administration's stalled aid request of over $60 billion for Ukraine in Congress due to Republican demands on border security and immigration policy, Putin seeks to project a winning image to both the world and his electorate. With Hungary blocking the latest proposed European Union aid deal for Ukraine, Putin is hoping for wavering support for Ukraine. When asked about peace in Ukraine, Putin offered a similar open-ended formula that he previously used to justify the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
"He stated that once we achieve the goals you mentioned, there will be peace. Let's revisit these goals, as they remain unchanged. I want to remind you how we articulated them: denazification, demilitarization, and Ukraine's neutral status."
Last Friday, the Russian military demonstrated the practical meaning of "denazification" with the largest missile and drone attack on Ukrainian cities since the start of the full-scale invasion.
The continuous assaults on Ukrainian civilians could potentially lead to unintended consequences. After the recent series of attacks, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and France have all urged for ongoing assistance to Ukraine. The real test in 2024 will be the extent to which Ukraine's allies can creatively fulfill their promises.
