Anticipation Grows as the UK Prepares for Long-Awaited 2024 Election

In 2023, British politics seemed to be stuck in traffic, but in 2024, it is expected to start moving again with a long overdue election in the United Kingdom.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is not constitutionally required to call for an election until December 17, 2024, which marks exactly five years since the last one took place. However, the current Conservative government's mandate, won in 2019 on Boris Johnson's optimistic, pre-Covid, post-Brexit platform, is now considered outdated for the current decade.

The UK is currently facing a challenging period with a cost-of-living crisis. Inflation and interest rates are at their highest in the past decade, making it difficult for public services to keep up with demand. This has led to longer waits for hospital treatment due to rising costs and strike action further stretching public services.

There is a lack of reasonably priced housing and frequent labor strikes disrupting rail services. This is occurring at a time when the tax burden is at its highest in history.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, pictured at a news conference in Downing Street in September, became Conservative Party leader in October 2022.

Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Sunak inherited many of these issues when he took over from Liz Truss in October 2022. Since assuming office, his main goal has been to stabilize the government after his two predecessors, Truss and Johnson before her, led chaotic administrations that resulted in their resignations as Conservative polling numbers plummeted. Despite his best efforts to address the challenges, Sunak and his government frequently find themselves in difficult situations.

Sunak finds himself in a precarious political position, facing the strongest opposition from the right within his own party and among right-leaning voters. Their main concerns revolve around immigration, culture wars, and potential betrayal of the 2016 Brexit vote, with net migration reaching a record high of 745,000 in November 2022. Additionally, many in his party blame him for the downfall of Johnson, whom he served as chancellor from February 2020 to July 2022. Despite being praised for his financial assistance during the Covid-19 pandemic, Sunak's political standing remains challenged.

The multiple scandals within Johnson's government, including breaking Covid rules and appointing a known sexual harasser, made Johnson so unpopular that Sunak chose to resign in July 2022. Sunak's resignation, followed by others, was considered the pivotal moment in Johnson's downfall by his most loyal allies, who have never forgiven Sunak for his betrayal.

The resignation of Johnson caused a sharp rift within the Conservative Party. Johnson is largely regarded as the mastermind and implementer of Brexit, cementing his status as the standard-bearer of the Conservative right.

British lawmakers in Parliament listen to Rishi Sunak during Prime Minister's Questions.

Jessica Taylor/UK Parliament/Reuters

Sunak's positioning to the right of Johnson has caused a lack of trust from loyal Johnsonites. As a result, Sunak faces the challenge of appeasing the right of the party with strong policies while also portraying himself to the public as a sensible and calm leader who can stabilize the country during tough times, in contrast to Johnson.

Balancing act

Sunak's decision to not reduce taxes and his efforts to improve relations with the European Union have been met with disapproval from the conservative faction of his party. In addition, he has been vocal about his skepticism towards green policies and has been heavily involved in contentious culture war topics such as immigration and transgender rights.

His remarkable juggling act is perhaps most clearly demonstrated by two choices he made this fall. In October, Sunak scrapped HS2, a high-speed rail project linking the north and south of England that was approved under former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron. This move was made to satisfy some within the party's right wing who viewed it as an unjustified expenditure that Cameron should never have initiated.

Passenger trains are seen at the Shoeburyness Carriage Servicing Depot in Shoeburyness, UK on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023, during a strike organized by the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport. The country is experiencing widespread industrial action, as workers across various sectors, including train drivers, nurses, and border-control officials, protest against pay offers below the inflation rate. (Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The invention of trains is attributed to Britain, but its railway system is currently experiencing a crisis. In a surprising move, Cameron, a liberal reformer and vocal opponent of Brexit, was appointed as Sunak's new foreign secretary, much to the dissatisfaction of many on the right side of the party. The conservative Daily Telegraph newspaper published an unfriendly headline, expressing concern about Cameron's return and the potential impact on pro-EU and anti-Israel policies.

Not only right-wing media commentators are criticizing Sunak and his government publicly. Johnson has also begun a weekly column in the Daily Mail newspaper where he has criticized his successor. Nigel Farage, a firebrand Brexiteer, has a daily TV show where he expresses his anger about immigration and Brexit. Additionally, former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries, one of Johnson's biggest allies, has written a book about the alleged plot to remove Johnson from office, in which she implicates Sunak.

Sunak's allies are increasingly concerned about the dismal polling numbers, signaling a potential end to the game. Over the past year, numerous Conservative MPs, activists, and party members have confided in CNN, expressing their expectation of defeat in the next election. This brings us back to the overdue election.

All the previously mentioned problems can be categorized as "party management." Much of the discourse from Sunak and his government appears to cater to a limited audience of Conservative MPs and party members. It frequently seems like specific issues are shaping the political narrative in a country that has more significant concerns to address.

Former British Prime Minister David Cameron (5th from right), who resigned following the 2016 Brexit vote, returned to front-line politics this year.

Kin Cheung/AFP/Getty Images

Biding time

Despite all the effort and the modest achievements of Sunak's leadership so far, the polls have shown little change, with the Conservatives still significantly trailing behind the opposition Labour Party. This begs the question: Why is Sunak, the third Conservative prime minister since the last election, hesitating to let the public have a say?

The allies of the prime minister argue that the UK elects MPs whose parties can form governments, rather than directly electing leaders. Parliaments are typically given a five-year term for governance. However, the events of the past five years have raised questions about whether Johnson's 2019 election manifesto still forms the basis for Sunak's current governance. Despite this, the Conservative Party continues to oversee public services for 66 million people. The opposition Labour Party criticizes the government's focus on internal disagreements as irresponsible. A shadow cabinet minister told CNN, "It feels like their MPs have given up. Many of them no longer attend Parliament. How can they claim to be running the country in the best interest of the people?"

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom speaks to the media at the G20 Leaders' Summit on September 9, 2023 in New Delhi, Delhi.

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Rishi Sunak is picking a fight on the migration issue that he probably cannot win

Sunak may be delaying a decision to see if his poll numbers improve. Moderate Conservatives who support Sunak are prepared to accept a potential loss in the next election. A senior Conservative expressed, "At this point, I just want to see us hold on, so we are not completely destroyed at the next election." They also expressed concern about the possibility of the right-wing taking over the party in the event of a significant loss.

Sunak has every right to wait until the last minute. There's a chance he could improve his polling numbers and achieve an unexpected victory.

No matter when it happens or what the result is, the situation in the UK feels like a recurring cycle as the Conservative Party faces turmoil once again. Some argue that a break from the constant ups and downs of Brexit, Covid, and Johnson's leadership could be a positive thing.

It's hard to believe that 2019 was so long ago, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to argue that the public should not have a say in their governance for much longer.