Anticipated Northern Lights Show in the US this Weekend: What's Behind the Activity Surge?

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A series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the sun could lead to stunning auroras visible as far south as Alabama and Northern California. However, these events may also cause disruptions to communications on Earth tonight and throughout the weekend, as warned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

The National Weather Service's division, the center, has announced a severe geomagnetic storm watch for Friday evening. This is the first time such a watch has been issued since January 2005.

Researchers have been closely monitoring the sun as it approaches the peak of its 11-year cycle, known as solar maximum. They have observed a rise in the intensity of solar flares coming from the sun.

Increased solar activity leads to the creation of auroras, also known as the northern lights (aurora borealis) and southern lights (aurora australis), which dance around Earth's poles. When energized particles from coronal mass ejections interact with Earth's magnetic field and gases in the atmosphere, they produce colorful lights in the sky.

The Space Weather Prediction Center has been monitoring a series of strong flares originating from a large group of sunspots on the surface of the sun since Wednesday. This cluster of sunspots is 16 times the size of Earth.

Scientists have noticed at least five coronal mass ejections, which are huge clouds of ionized gas and magnetic fields that blast out from the sun's outer atmosphere towards Earth. These powerful outbursts are predicted to reach our planet starting from midday on Friday and lasting until Sunday.

The peak of the geomagnetic storm activity for Earth is expected to occur between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. ET on Saturday, as per the center's forecast.

Recently, there has been an increase in geomagnetic storms caused by the sun. These storms have led to the appearance of auroras in unusual locations. Some of these locations include New Mexico, Missouri, North Carolina, and California in the United States. In addition, auroras have also been spotted in the southeast of England and other parts of the United Kingdom. The center has described this phenomenon as "an unusual event."

Depending on where you are, you may not always see the auroras directly above you. However, experts suggest keeping an eye on the horizon, as they may also put on a colorful show there.

The aurora borealis can be seen on the north horizon in the night sky over Wolf Lake in the Cloquet State Forest in Minnesota in September 2019.

The aurora borealis can be seen on the north horizon in the night sky over Wolf Lake in the Cloquet State Forest in Minnesota in September 2019.

Alex Kormann/Star Tribune/Getty Images

The effects of geomagnetic storms

When directed at Earth, these ejections can cause geomagnetic storms, or major disturbances of Earth’s magnetic field.

The Space Weather Prediction Center warns that geomagnetic storms have the potential to affect infrastructure both in near-Earth orbit and on the Earth's surface. This can lead to disruptions in communication, the electric power grid, navigation, radio, and satellite operations. The center works to notify operators of these systems so they can take precautionary measures.

In addition to geomagnetic storms, solar storms originating from the sun can result in radio blackouts and pose dangers for crewed space missions.

The center cautioned that there may be more solar activity leading to continued geomagnetic storm conditions over the weekend.

Researchers have noted just three intense geomagnetic storms in the ongoing solar cycle that started in December 2019, as reported by the center.

A G5, or extreme geomagnetic storm, happened on October 23. This event caused power outages in Sweden and damaged power transformers in South Africa, as reported by the center.

Tracking space weather

Every 11 years, the sun goes through cycles of low and high solar activity, which is linked to the number of sunspots on its surface. These dark regions are driven by the sun's powerful and ever-changing magnetic fields, with some sunspots growing as large as Earth or even bigger.

Throughout a solar cycle, the sun moves from a peaceful phase to a more energetic and active phase. This peak of activity, known as solar maximum, is when the sun's magnetic poles reverse. After that, the sun becomes quiet once again during a period called solar minimum.

The peak of solar maximum is predicted to occur between mid- to late 2024. However, the sun will continue to be active for a few years after this period.

The Space Weather Prediction Center teams rely on data from ground and space-based observatories, magnetic maps of the solar surface, and ultraviolet observations of the sun's outer atmosphere. This information helps them pinpoint when the sun is likely to release solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other space weather events that may impact Earth.

Solar flares can impact communications and GPS right away by disturbing the Earth's ionosphere, which is a part of the upper atmosphere.

Additionally, energetic particles from the sun can cause disruptions in spacecraft electronics and pose risks to astronauts who are not adequately protected within a timeframe of 20 minutes to several hours.

During coronal mass ejections, material is ejected from the sun and can reach Earth within 30 to 72 hours. These events can cause geomagnetic storms that impact satellites and create electrical currents in the upper atmosphere. These currents can travel through the ground and affect electric power grids.

The storms also affect commercial airlines, which are advised to avoid flying near Earth's poles during geomagnetic storms. This is because these storms can lead to loss of communication or navigation capabilities for the airlines.

Extreme storms have happened in the past, like the one that caused a power outage in Quebec in 1989 and the Carrington Event in 1859. The Carrington Event is known as the most severe geomagnetic storm in history, leading to telegraph stations sparking and catching fire.

If a similar event were to happen today, it could result in trillions of dollars in damages and some power grids being down for an extended period.

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