Analysis: Potential Resurgence of ISIS Threat

Peter Bergen, CNN's national security analyst, a vice president at New America, a professor at Arizona State University, and the host of the Audible podcast "In the Room" on Apple and Spotify, shares his views in this commentary. He is also the author of "The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden." Check out more opinions on CNN.

If ISIS was truly behind the attack on a Moscow concert venue that tragically took the lives of at least 133 people, it indicates that the terror group is regrettably experiencing a resurgence.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, according to a US official who shared with CNN that the US has no reason to doubt it.

During its peak in 2014 and 2015, ISIS controlled territory in Iraq and Syria equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom, with a population of millions. The group also carried out various terrorist plots in Europe, such as the 2015 attack in Paris that resulted in the deaths of 130 people. Additionally, ISIS inspired attacks in the US, including the 2016 shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida, where 49 people were killed, marking the deadliest terrorist attack in the US since 9/11.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was spotted on a screen while having a meeting with his close advisors to discuss the upcoming 2024 election at Gostiny Dvor in Moscow, Russia on January 31, 2024. The image captured during the meeting is shown below:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on a screen during a meeting with his confidants for the 2024 election at Gostiny Dvor in Moscow, Russia January 31, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

Related article

Vladimir Putin’s recent election has been widely criticized as a sham. However, between 2017 and 2018, ISIS suffered significant losses in Iraq and Syria, leading to the collapse of its geographical “caliphate.” Now, the group has fragmented into smaller affiliates in Africa and Asia, which appear to have limited capabilities for carrying out large-scale attacks in other regions.

One of the most dangerous affiliates is ISIS-K in Afghanistan. In August 2021, as the Biden administration withdrew all US troops from Afghanistan, ISIS-K carried out a devastating attack at Kabul Airport, killing 13 American service members and around 170 Afghan civilians.

At the time, it was believed that ISIS affiliates in Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, or Somalia were not capable of launching large-scale international attacks. However, in January, a terrorist attack in Iran proved otherwise. The attack, which took place during a memorial service for General Qasem Soleimani, resulted in the death of 84 people. Soleimani, a prominent military leader in Iran, had been killed by a US drone strike in 2020. This incident showed that ISIS-K, known for its anti-Shia stance, could target a country like Iran, which is predominantly Shia.

In March alone, a Russian state news agency said the country had thwarted multiple ISIS-related incidents, including a plan to attack a synagogue in Moscow.

Members of the Al-Rabaya family break their fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan outside their destroyed home by the Israeli airstrikes in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Monday, March 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

The Al-Rabaya family members are shown breaking their fast during Ramadan outside their destroyed home in Rafah, Gaza Strip. This touching scene was captured on Monday, March 18, 2024, by Fatima Shbair in an AP photo.

Related article

Opinion: What Biden needs to know about Rafah

The US embassy in Russia mentioned on March 7 that there were concerns about extremists planning to target large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts. This information was also shared with Russian authorities by the US Government, following their 'duty to warn' policy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, dismissed the US warning as "provocative", stating that it seemed like an attempt at blackmail and destabilization of their society.

The fact that Russian authorities had uncovered ISIS-related threats earlier in the month, combined with the US warning of a potential attack, suggests an active terrorist threat from ISIS in Moscow that was known to both US and Russian officials.

Russian President Vladimir Putin connected the suspects in the recent attack to Ukraine in a brief address on Saturday. State news agencies reported that the authorities detained the four men believed to be involved in the assault at the concert venue near Moscow while they were attempting to cross the border into Ukraine. The FSB stated that the suspects "had relevant contacts on the Ukrainian side."

Ukraine has strongly refuted any involvement in the attack. Ukrainian and American officials have voiced worries that Putin's statements could be used as a pretext for an escalation in the ongoing conflict.

Get Our Free Weekly Newsletter

Sign up for CNN Opinion’s newsletter

Join us on Twitter and Facebook

ISIS-K has both the motive and capability to attack Russia. In terms of motive, Russia's support for Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad, who has been responsible for the deaths of many Sunnis in Syria, makes them a target for ISIS. Additionally, Russia's history of repressing Muslim minorities like the Chechens adds to the tension. In terms of capability, the recent ISIS-K attack in Iran showcases their ability to carry out large-scale attacks beyond Afghanistan.

We do know that Putin made a big mistake when he criticized the US warning. If ISIS-K indeed attacked the concert hall, the Biden administration would need to reflect on whether removing all American troops from Afghanistan enabled ISIS to regroup there and conduct major attacks in other nations. If this were true, it would be a setback for the Biden administration.

Editor's P/S:

The resurgence