Analysis: Escalating tensions in a volatile world
Amid mounting concerns, experts warn of the escalating risk of a potential conflict between superpowers. Delicate diplomacy is crucial as global dynamics shift.
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A few years back, the Economist magazine boldly stated on its cover that Taiwan, a small island with a population of 24 million, was considered "the most dangerous place on Earth." The reasons behind this declaration still hold true today, and in fact, they have become even more compelling in recent times.
The tensions over Taiwan are rooted in the expanding geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States. Since the rise of Chinese leader Xi Jinping and former US President Donald Trump, both nations have shifted their attitudes towards each other from benign to wary to hostile.
The extraordinary and rapid growth of China, coupled with America's dominant status, may have made this rivalry inevitable. As a rising power faces an established one, it creates a situation that some experts believe could be "destined for war," according to author and Harvard international security scholar Graham Allison.
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Tensions between China and Taiwan are escalating. Many are wondering if this could lead to war. It's interesting to note that the US and China, despite being geopolitical rivals, have a strong economic relationship.
During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union traded $5 billion worth of goods in a year. In comparison, China and the US now trade $5 billion every few days. Despite increasing tariffs and trade restrictions, the trade volume between the two countries has remained high.
Unlike during the Cold War, China does not appear to be a revolutionary state aiming to challenge the international system and offer an alternative ideology to America. The intense ideological rivalry that characterized the Cold War era is largely absent in today's world.
US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping walk together after a meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' week in Woodside, Calif., on November 15, 2023.
US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were seen walking together after a meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' week in Woodside, California on November 15, 2023.
Nuclear deterrence is still a factor at play. Both China and the US possess significant arsenals, similar to other countries like the US-Soviet Union and Pakistan-India, serving as a deterrent against full-scale war.
And yet … and yet: There is the problem of Taiwan that sits at the heart of US-China relations.
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China's stance on Taiwan's independence has remained consistent throughout its history. It is a belief deeply rooted in the constitution of the People's Republic of China. From Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, every Chinese leader has upheld the goal of reunification. In the past, Communist China was confident that time was on its side, believing that eventually, Taiwan would naturally gravitate towards the mainland due to its economic power and large population.
However, this assumption has not held true in reality.
Taiwan has evolved into a vibrant democracy with a unique political culture, distinct from that of China. In recent years, Taiwan has become increasingly determined to maintain its independence from China. This situation may be making Xi Jinping feel pressured to take action sooner rather than later.
For the United States and its allies in Asia, any attempt by China to forcefully reunite with Taiwan would not be tolerated. Washington has been willing to acknowledge China's territorial claims over Taiwan, as long as these claims are not enforced through coercion.
This picture shows a general view of Kinmen, China.
This picture shows a general view of Kinmen, China.
John Mees/CNN
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Tensions are running high in the waters off the Taiwan islands, which are visible from China's shore. However, despite this, life for the locals continues as usual.
Taiwan's policy has always been to tolerate different visions of the future as long as there are no significant changes in the present. The majority of people in Taiwan simply want to maintain the current status quo. In the recent elections on the island, a party closely linked to the idea of an independent Taiwan won for a third term. It is important to note that this party only received 40% of the vote, while the other 60% went to candidates with less pro-independence stances.
What does all this mean? This issue will need to be managed rather than solved. It is crucial for both Beijing and Washington to handle it carefully. In this particular region, there is no room for tough talk or actions that can provoke. It is important for all parties involved to keep communicating to avoid misunderstandings or mistakes.
Although it may not feel morally satisfying, the stakes are too high. It is evident that if these tensions are mishandled and escalate into a conflict, it would be a lose-lose-lose situation for all three parties. In fact, the entire world would face catastrophic consequences. It is better to postpone dealing with this issue as long as possible and hope that it does not lead to a crisis.
Editor's P/S:
The article sheds light on the complex and potentially dangerous situation surrounding Taiwan, which has become a flashpoint in the escalating geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States. The tensions stem from China's long-held belief in reunifying with Taiwan, while the US and its allies are determined to prevent any forcible reunification.
The situation is further complicated by Taiwan's desire for independence and the delicate balance between maintaining the status quo and avoiding conflict. The article highlights the need for careful management and communication between China, the US, and Taiwan to prevent misunderstandings or mistakes that could lead to a major conflict. It also emphasizes the importance of postponing a resolution to the issue as long as possible to avoid a crisis that would have catastrophic consequences.
