A Transformation in Public Opinion: How the Nation Embraced Change on a Controversial Topic 2 Decades Ago

If you want to receive more stories like this, you can subscribe to CNN’s What Matters newsletter for free. It may be surprising now, with most Americans in favor of it, but only two decades ago, same-sex marriage was a controversial topic that caused division and motivated people to vote.

Back on May 17, 2004, most Americans did not support same-sex marriage. However, on that day, the first same-sex couples in Massachusetts were able to get married thanks to a court decision. The state's governor at the time, Mitt Romney, wanted to use a law from 1913 to stop same-sex couples from other states from getting married in Massachusetts.

Then-President George W. Bush, who was a Republican seeking reelection, made a speech from the White House in support of amending the US Constitution to "defend" marriage, which he called "the most important institution in society."

In November 2004, there was a significant opposition to marriage equality when voters in 11 states, including both conservative Utah and liberal Oregon, amended their constitutions to specify that marriage should only be between a man and a woman.

Hillary, right, and Julie Goodridge, left, lead plaintiffs in the Massachusetts gay marriage lawsuit, get married at Boston City Hall on May 17, 2004.

Hillary, right, and Julie Goodridge, left, lead plaintiffs in the Massachusetts gay marriage lawsuit, get married at Boston City Hall on May 17, 2004.

The marriage amendment passed in Ohio with strong support may have played a role in Ohio voting for Bush and helping him win the presidency. Opposing same-sex marriage likely worked in Bush's favor in the state. If Ohio had not supported Bush, he would have lost to John Kerry, who also opposed same-sex marriage in Massachusetts.

The Ohio amendment led to the 2015 Supreme Court case Obergefell v. Hodges, where a divided 5-4 court granted the right to same-sex marriage.

In CNN exit polls during the 2004 presidential election, only a quarter of American voters supported marriage rights for same-sex couples. A larger percentage, 35%, backed the idea of civil unions for same-sex couples, while 37% were against any legal recognition of same-sex unions.

Barack Obama originally did not support same-sex marriage when he campaigned as a Democrat in the 2008 election. However, as public opinion began to change rapidly, he shifted his stance in 2012 to advocate for same-sex unions.

In just eight years, there was a significant shift in the US political landscape regarding same-sex marriage. The winning candidate in 2004, Bush, used opposition to same-sex marriage for his reelection, while the winning candidate in 2012, Obama, embraced marriage equality before securing his second term in office.

Now, in 2022, Senator Romney, who ran against Obama in 2012, voted to support same-sex marriage if the Supreme Court tried to take away the right granted in 2015.

The court has become more conservative since 2015, with Justices Anthony Kennedy and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who supported same-sex marriage rights, being replaced by Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.

Currently, conservative justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito still express dissatisfaction with the Obergefell decision. However, it remains uncertain if there will be an opportunity to overturn the decision or if the conservative justices who were not on the court in 2015 would support removing the right to same-sex marriage, similar to their stance on abortion rights.

Romney currently does not back same-sex marriages. However, he has shown his support for protecting them from the Supreme Court. In a statement, Romney expressed his respect for individuals who have entered into same-sex marriages. He acknowledged that while he personally believes in traditional marriage, Obergefell is the law of the land that LGBTQ individuals depend on. Romney emphasized that this legislation brings certainty to many LGBTQ Americans and demonstrates that Congress, including himself, values and loves all Americans equally.

The Respect for Marriage Act that Romney supported does not ensure a national right to same-sex marriage if the Supreme Court changes its decision. However, it does mandate that every state must recognize marriages that are legally conducted in other states.

Even if the Supreme Court were to reverse Obergefell, most states still have laws and constitutional amendments in place that prohibit same-sex marriage, as reported by Stateline.

'Surprising' change

In 2023, the PRRI American Values survey revealed that over two-thirds of Americans now back same-sex unions. However, the level of support differs depending on the state. In states that uphold same-sex marriage independent of Obergefell, support exceeds 70%. Conversely, in states where same-sex marriage would be prohibited without Obergefell, support drops to 64%.

I spoke with Alex Lundry, a Republican pollster who has been a strong advocate for same-sex marriage, to get his perspective on the recent 20-year shift in public opinion.

"It's absolutely remarkable how the tide has turned," Lundry remarked. He went on to say, "In my view, this change in public opinion is the most noteworthy and impactful shift we have seen in polling history."

20% of Gen Z identifies as LGBTQ

Lundry pointed to a series of data points to explain the overwhelming shift in public opinion:

More and more people are identifying as LGBTQ. According to data from Gallup, the percentage of the population identifying as LGBTQ has more than doubled from 3.5% in 2012 to 7.2% in 2022.

What's even more significant is that nearly 20% of Gen Z Americans, who were born between 1997 and 2004, identify as LGBTQ, with a majority of them identifying as bisexual.

More people are now aware and supportive of individuals who are gay. This shift began in 2004 when Dick Cheney, the vice president under Bush, openly opposed the push for an anti-same-sex marriage constitutional amendment, as one of his daughters is gay. Currently, there is increased representation of LGBTQ perspectives in the media and government. Out for America, an organization that monitors representation, reported a rise in openly LGBTQ lawmakers from less than 500 in 2017 to nearly 1,200 in 2023.

The number of same-sex couples has significantly increased, more than doubling from less than 600,000 in 2008 to over 1.2 million in 2021. Census Bureau data shows that approximately 710,000 of these couples are married.

Warnings were unfounded

There is also evidence that warnings about same-sex marriage somehow endangering “traditional marriage” simply never materialized.

A new study conducted by researchers at the RAND Corporation examined the impact of two decades of same-sex marriage in the US. The study found that as same-sex couples were allowed to marry in certain states, marriage rates among opposite-sex couples actually increased. Additionally, the physical health of same-sex couples in these states also showed improvement.

This study highlights another societal shift as same-sex marriage becomes more widely accepted and legalized across the country.

Politicians are looking to leverage abortion rights as a key social issue in the upcoming election. According to Lundry, a notable difference between support for same-sex marriage and abortion rights is that the latter has maintained positive backing for many years, unlike same-sex marriage, which experienced a significant shift in public opinion.

Lundry pointed out that the only other issue with a similar dramatic change in support is the legalization of marijuana. Over the years, support for legalizing marijuana has surged from approximately one-third in 2002 to a substantial 70% in 2023, as reported by Gallup.

In a not-so-coincidental move, President Joe Biden has taken steps this election year to reclassify cannabis from a Schedule I drug to a Schedule III drug. This decision recognizes that there are valid uses for cannabis and shifts the government's perspective to see it as a substance with a lower risk for abuse.

At the same time, the ongoing battle for LGBTQ rights persists. One of the key issues currently being debated in state legislatures is transgender rights, especially when it comes to children and gender-affirming care.

Editor's P/S:

The article underscores the remarkable shift in American attitudes towards same-sex marriage over the past two decades. Once a polarizing topic, same-sex marriage is now supported by a majority of Americans, with over two-thirds expressing their approval. This dramatic change is attributed to a number of factors, including the increasing visibility and acceptance of LGBTQ individuals, the growing number of same-sex couples, and the lack of evidence supporting the idea that same-sex marriage harms traditional marriage.

The article also highlights the ongoing debate surrounding LGBTQ rights, particularly transgender rights. It emphasizes the importance of protecting the rights of all LGBTQ individuals, including their access to gender-affirming care. The recent move by President Biden to reclassify cannabis reflects a similar shift in societal attitudes. As with same-sex marriage, the legalization of marijuana has gained significant support over the years, demonstrating the willingness of Americans to embrace social change and progress.