A Potential Turning Point: Pro-European Opposition Gearing Up to Dethrone Populists in Poland

The final results of a closely contested national election have confirmed that Poland's opposition is set to remove the populist ruling party from power. The incumbent Law and Justice party, also known as PiS, garnered the largest share of the vote at 35.38%. However, they have lost their parliamentary majority, paving the way for weeks of high-stakes negotiations to form the next government in Warsaw. This was confirmed by official results released on Tuesday by the National Electoral Commission, after all the ballots were counted.

PiS secured 30.7% of the vote, surpassing the Civic Coalition (KO) led by Donald Tusk. This close outcome has positioned the Third Way and Lewica parties as key decision-makers. Both parties strongly oppose the hardline PiS and have expressed their intention to form a new coalition government with Tusk's bloc.

This situation indicates a potential end to PiS's divisive eight-year governance, characterized by significant transformations in Poland's democratic institutions and concerns about the country drifting towards populist authoritarianism. Tusk had pledged to restore democratic norms and collaborate with Western European allies, as Warsaw's reputation as an outcast among them was rapidly growing.

But there may be challenging weeks ahead, a period full of uncertainty. It is anticipated that Poland's President, Andrzej Duda, who is aligned with the PiS party, will provide ample opportunity for the PiS to form a government before relinquishing proceedings to the opposition lawmakers of Poland's new block. Additionally, Tusk must create a solid alliance of politicians from various ideologies to present a viable alternative.

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"We are determined to make efforts to form a parliamentary majority," stated Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, even though PiS appears to lack any apparent means to achieve this.

As per the Polish constitution, the president is obligated to convene a new parliamentary session within 30 days of the election. Subsequently, within 14 days, the president must propose a candidate for the position of prime minister, who then has a further 14 days to secure a vote of confidence in parliament.

The only potential partner for PiS is the far-right Confederation party, which had a disappointing electoral performance following a summer of growing influence. The election on Sunday witnessed a record turnout of 74%, highlighting the significant division that has engulfed Poland in recent years and emphasizing the importance of the vote.

Tusk portrayed the election as a final opportunity to safeguard Polish democracy. "Democracy prevails," he declared to his supporters when the exit poll results indicated the election outcome on Sunday. "This marks the conclusion of the PiS administration."

If Tusk were to assume power in Poland, he would be confronted with an immense challenge of undoing the illiberal changes that the PiS made to the country's judiciary, public media, and cultural institutions.

Additionally, he aims to restore Poland's prominent role within the European Union and is expected to address the strained relationship between Warsaw and Kyiv concerning the importation of Ukrainian grain. However, prior to these objectives, Poland's government is anticipated to experience a period of instability, coinciding with a critical juncture in the conflict in neighboring Ukraine.

CNNs Antonia Mortensen and Alex Hardie contributed reporting.