A More Intelligent Approach to Eradicating Hamas

According to Robert A. Pape, a professor of political science and director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, it is highly improbable that Israel's strategy of annihilating Hamas' military and political capabilities to the extent that the terrorist group becomes incapable of launching large-scale attacks on Israeli civilians will succeed.

Robert A. Pape

Robert Pape

Indeed, Israel is likely already producing more terrorists than its killing.

To effectively combat terrorist organizations such as Hamas, it is crucial to isolate the terrorists from the local community they arise from. Otherwise, eliminating the current generation of terrorists may only pave the way for a larger, new generation of terrorists in the future. This phenomenon, referred to as "counterinsurgency mathematics" by experts, highlights the complexities involved in putting into action the principle of separating the terrorist group from the wider population.

This pattern occurred in the past when:

In June 1982, Israel launched a military invasion of Southern Lebanon, deploying around 78,000 combat troops along with nearly 3,000 tanks and armored vehicles. The objective was to eliminate PLO terrorists, and Israel initially achieved notable success. However, this operation inadvertently led to the formation of Hezbollah in July 1982. Consequently, Hezbollah garnered substantial local backing, resulting in numerous suicide attacks. Ultimately, Israel withdrew its army from a significant portion of southern Lebanon in 1985, contributing to the continuous growth and influence of Hezbollah.

A long line of Israeli armoured personnel carriers and their crews wait on the outskirts of Beirut, in the summer of 1982.

Maz Nash/AP

2.)  Israel maintained a heavy military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank from the early 1990s to 2005.

These military operations effectively eliminated numerous terrorists belonging to Hamas and other Palestinian factions. However, they also sparked widespread local backing for these terrorist groups and led to large-scale suicide attacks on Israelis. These attacks only ceased with the withdrawal of Israeli military forces. Rather than being defeated, Hamas emerged victorious in the 2006 Palestinian elections.

Hamas supporters, waving the green flags of the Islamist movement, participate in a campaign rally in Gaza City prior to the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections.

Photo: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images

In July-August 2006, Israel initiated a military operation on the ground in Lebanon. The objective was to eliminate Hezbollah's leaders and combatants completely, preventing any future incidents of Israeli soldier kidnappings and missile attacks on Israeli urban centers. However, the Israeli offensive proved unsuccessful, ultimately leading to a significant increase in Hezbollah's strength and influence.

In 2006, Lebanese young people came together on a hilltop, where they had a panoramic view of Beirut. The purpose of their gathering was to witness the ongoing emission of smoke from a fuel dump located at Beirut International Airport. This specific area had been targeted by an Israeli airstrike.

Ben Curtis/AP

4.)  The United States invaded and occupied Iraq in 2003 with 150,000 combat troops.

American forces achieved a decisive victory over Saddam Hussein's army in just six weeks. However, the intensity of these extensive military operations resulted in the emergence of the largest suicide terrorist campaign in modern times, followed by a profound civil war in Iraq. Ultimately, these events paved the way for the rise of ISIS.

A US Marine pulls down a picture of Saddam Hussein at a school in Al-Kut, Iraq, 2003.

Chris Hondros/Getty Images

Is history repeating itself in Gaza in 2023?

In Gaza, it appears that this tragic pattern is already unfolding. Currently, we are witnessing not the disconnection between Hamas and the local population, but instead, their increasing merging, which is likely resulting in a rise in Hamas recruitment.

The Israeli directive to relocate 1.1 million Palestinians from northern Gaza southward will not effectively separate the terrorists from the civilian population. Numerous individuals, including the elderly, children, and those with medical conditions or injuries requiring specialized treatment, are unable to relocate. Consequently, evacuating the entire civilian population from northern Gaza is an impractical proposition. Additionally, it is highly likely that numerous Hamas militants would accompany the civilian population even if they were to move.

Furthermore, Hamas has issued a directive for civilians to refrain from evacuating. Due to the close integration between Hamas and the civilian population, it comes as no surprise that Israeli military actions targeting Hamas militants have resulted in the loss of more than 8,000 civilian lives, as reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Ramallah, which cited sources from the Hamas-controlled Gaza. It is highly probable that the majority of these civilians have relatives who are already being actively recruited by Hamas. Consequently, it is reasonable to anticipate that Hamas is progressively gaining strength instead of weakening, as time goes on.

To effectively combat terrorist organizations, it is imperative to embark on sustained, long-term efforts of targeted pressure that span over several years. This approach should prioritize a combination of ongoing military interventions and proactive political strategies, starting from the initial stages.

The strategy of solely focusing on military action, like Israel is currently doing, without considering the political consequences, inadvertently results in the creation of more terrorists than it eliminates. To truly undermine terrorist networks, a comprehensive approach is necessary. This entails conducting targeted attacks on identified terrorists over an extended period of time, accompanied by political initiatives that weaken the bond between the terrorists and the communities they originate from.

Israel's success in combatting ISIS should not overshadow the significant contribution of Muslim ground forces. They tirelessly applied military pressure in Iraq and Syria, over a span of several years, without alienating the local population. By empowering the local communities to govern the areas liberated from terrorist control, they achieved remarkable results. This successful campaign seamlessly integrated military and political strategies from the outset.

In order to effectively tackle Hamas, Israel must adopt a fresh strategic approach. Political means remain the most feasible way to disconnect Hamas from the local population.

Israel's current strategy involves prioritizing military intervention, followed by addressing the political aspect at a later stage. However, this approach is expected to further merge Hamas with the local population and result in an increase in terrorist activities rather than eliminating them.

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Moreover, Israel seems to lack a coherent political strategy for the post-eradication phase of Hamas. Since 2006, Hamas has held sole governance in Gaza. While Israel asserts its disinterest in assuming control over Gaza, the imminent need for governance in the region remains unanswered, as Israel has yet to clarify its vision for a Gaza without Hamas.

How can we deter Hamas 2.0 from seizing power in the absence of any significant political alternatives? Why should Palestinians choose to forsake Hamas when there is no alternative?

One solution is to initiate the political process immediately, striving towards the establishment of a Palestinian state, and fostering a credible substitute for Hamas.

Over time, this could progressively alienate Hamas from the local population, thus resulting in considerable achievements. The determination of Gaza's leadership should be in the hands of the Palestinians themselves.

This innovative strategic approach offers the most effective means to triumph over Hamas, safeguard the Israeli populace, and promote American interests in the area.