2024 Biden Campaign Highlights Trump's Ongoing Menace to Democracy
Biden campaign gears up for 2024, strengthening operations in key states and sharpening their case against Trump as a threat to democracy Hiring spree, coalition challenges, and efforts to sway public opinion on the economy
President Joe Biden's 2024 election campaign is expanding its operations in key battleground states and refining its message against former President Donald Trump. A leaked campaign strategy memo reveals that Biden intends to highlight the threat to democracy posed by Trump, echoing his 2020 campaign. However, Biden is facing challenging polling data in potential matchups against Trump and indications of tension within his own support base.
According to campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the upcoming election in November 2024 will not just be a clash of governing beliefs. It will be about safeguarding American democracy and the freedoms we cherish as individuals. The campaign anticipates that Donald Trump, the leading candidate in the GOP primary, will be the Republican nominee, and is preparing to persuade voters that Trump’s actions pose a serious danger to democracy with his ability to provoke political violence and assault on our democracy and liberty.
The campaign is working on building its infrastructure and organization, with plans to have its battleground state leadership in place by the middle of next month. It is also identifying key issues for messaging, and preparing for the president and vice president to start campaigning early next year. According to Chavez Rodriguez, "Thousands of staff" are expected to be in place by early summer.
Biden has framed the battle between the world's democracies and autocracies as the central question of his presidency. While he is referring to autocratic governments like Russia and China, his campaign now argues that this battle is also at stake in the United States as he takes on Trump.
Chavez Rodriguez stated that despite the American people rejecting Trump in the 2020 election, the threat he poses to democracy has intensified. "He is running a campaign driven by vengeance and reprisal, at the cost of American freedoms," she expressed. "We must treat this election as if it holds the fate of American democracy, because in reality, it does."
The Trump campaign responded defiantly, stating that "Crooked Joe Biden poses a serious threat to democracy by using the legal system to disenfranchise voters on a massive scale, not just nationally, but in individual states. They are undermining democracy in order to manipulate the election." The White House has consistently denied any involvement in the multiple legal battles the former president is currently embroiled in.
Recent polls indicate that a potential 2024 Biden-Trump rematch would be a close race, with no clear leader according to a New York Times and Siena College poll released on Tuesday. Biden has been shown to trail behind Trump in hypothetical head-to-head matchups in key battleground states in recent months. The Biden campaign has intensified its criticism of Trump, with Biden himself comparing Trump's rhetoric about immigrants to language used in Nazi Germany.
During official campaign events, the president and vice president are tasked with drawing out differences with Trump while highlighting important issues such as abortion, the economy, gun violence prevention, LGBTQ+ rights, Social Security, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act.
Kamala Harris will kick off a "reproductive freedoms tour" in battleground Wisconsin, highlighting the contrast on abortion. The campaign sees abortion rights as a mobilizing issue for its base and independent voters and plans to make it a central focus moving forward, according to campaign communications director Michael Tyler.
The White House is facing significant challenges and crises that are beyond President Biden's immediate control and could impact voter turnout from key constituencies. Congressional negotiations on a supplemental funding package for Ukraine, Israel, and border security have put Biden in a difficult position within his own party. Despite positive economic indicators, public polling continues to show persistent pessimism about the economy.
These crises have contributed to a drop in Biden's approval rating over the past year. Starting the year with a 45% approval rating, it has now fallen to 37% according to a CNN survey conducted last month. While some Democrats are concerned about these low numbers, the campaign remains undeterred. Officials often point out that Biden was underestimated in 2020 after poor performances in the early primary contests, only to have a successful turnaround after South Carolina.
Officials argue that the coalitions Biden requires will "come home" as the election draws nearer and voters start paying attention. According to a November poll from Marquette Law School, approximately 1 in 5 voters have yet to make a decision in a contest between Trump and Biden.
In a memo, Chavez Rodriguez stated, "There has been no shortage of polling coverage on Joe Biden. The out-of-touch MAGA agenda will only become more noticeable and significant in voters' minds next year, as it has been in previous election cycles."
Biden gets ready to hit the trail
In the upcoming months, anticipate Biden, Harris, and other representatives to engage in campaign-focused travel and events, as the president has primarily participated in official travel arranged by the White House in the recent past, as stated by Chavez Rodriguez.
The campaign, based in Wilmington, Delaware, plans to expand its operations in the coming months to be "operating at full steam" by early summer, according to Chavez Rodriguez. Although some Democrats have complained about the slow start, the campaign has recently appointed leaders in key battleground states such as Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and South Carolina.
A hiring spree is coming
Chavez Rodriguez revealed in her memo the upcoming formation of state leadership teams in every battleground state "by mid-January," which, she mentioned, "will complement the existing hundreds of state party staff."
The campaign has recruited over 70 full-time employees and is collaborating closely with both the Democratic National Committee and state parties nationwide, representing a departure from traditional political committee usage.
Contrary to former President Barack Obama's creation of Organizing for America, Biden has aligned with the DNC from the start, even sharing fundraising and supporter data with them in 2021. Bidens reelection campaign has relied on the DNC for assistance in organizing and establishing joint fundraising agreements with the party and all 50 states to bolster Democratic campaign funding.
Officials are contending that the 2024 campaign will have a different appearance compared to previous years, citing changes in voter behavior. They believe that traditional brick-and-mortar field offices are no longer an efficient use of resources at this point in the race. Instead, voters are directed to the campaign's website to purchase Biden yard signs. Additionally, phone banking is predominantly carried out virtually and through text messaging.
The campaign's state program aims to implement a "hyper-localized approach," with organizing efforts focused on accessing the personal networks of friends and influencers of voters, according to Chavez Rodriguez.
"Our team is currently testing programs targeting Black, Latino, women, and young voters in crucial battleground states. We are prioritizing new resources and tools to help our supporters and staff effectively communicate our message to our key coalition of supporters," she explained. She also mentioned that these efforts will work alongside traditional door knocking and organizing programs.
Additionally, she stated that paid media will increase in the upcoming months leading up to the election. The focus will be on solidifying the choice for the American people through placements in high-impact television moments and programming, digital ads, and continued investment in African American and Hispanic media."
Coalition strains
However, strains continue to exist within Biden's political coalition. Progressive and immigration advocates are expressing frustration over the president's border policy concessions as he seeks to garner support for Ukraine aid. Meanwhile, young voters, who strongly supported Biden in the 2020 election, are displaying signs of discontent, particularly regarding the administration's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Biden's approval rating among voters under 30 is 26% overall and 20% on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as per the latest Times/Siena poll.
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of NextGen America, a youth voting organization that has endorsed Biden, said, "There's a segment of the electorate that is deeply passionate about this issue and wants to see the administration change its policy positions. I believe it's crucial for the administration to heed their voices in order to gain and secure their votes."
The Biden administration's adoption of a more stringent border policy may yield benefits with moderate voters. According to polling data from Democratic public opinion research group Blueprint, there is a demand for Biden to address concerns about immigration and foreign policy. "Voter perception of the president's positions on these issues compared to Donald Trump's positions are a political problem and electoral problem for Joe Biden," stated Evan Roth Smith, lead pollster for Blueprint, emphasizing that reaching an agreement on border security could have significant political advantages with demographic groups such as Black voters, independent voters, Trump-skeptical Republicans, and Hispanic voters.
Changing minds on the economy
Biden is facing challenges in making significant progress in changing voters' negative views of the economy, which continues to be the primary concern for voters as we approach 2024. There are indications that the president is becoming impatient behind the scenes as he sees delays in the implementation of projects funded by the legislative achievements he is trying to promote.
According to a recent CNN poll, 70% of Americans believe that the economic conditions in the US are poor, while one-third approve of the president's handling of the economy. This is occurring despite some positive indicators such as lower inflation, low unemployment rates, and increasing wages. The White House has also been celebrating an increase in consumer confidence in December and the easing of recession fears.
It is acknowledged by officials that these changes may not be immediately embraced by the American people, as many are still recovering from the economic impact of the pandemic.
"People don't base their lives on economic statistics or wait for data to determine how they feel. They live their lives based on their weekly earnings and expenses... but the actual experiences of the American people are now shifting," stated Seth Harris, a former high-level labor policy adviser to Biden, pointing to lower prices on essentials like food and gas.
Seth Harris emphasized the importance of highlighting the improvements in the economy under Biden's leadership, while also drawing a clear contrast with Trump's economic policies, such as tax cuts for the wealthy and attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. According to Harris, it is crucial to remind people of the previous administration's impact and what could be expected if there is a second term, both retrospectively and prospectively.
The Biden campaign emphasized the contrast by holding a call with reporters on Wednesday to preview Trump's tax policy in a potential second term. According to Chavez Rodriguez, voters have been clear.
She stated that people will not tolerate the existential threat to democracy posed by Donald Trump. They will not support his extreme policies or his dictatorial approach to controlling their everyday lives. She emphasized that they will make their stance clear again next November.
